There is a very strong possibility that the division winner in the NFC South will only have six or eight wins. No team is interested in winning the division. The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans sit atop the division at 5-8. Just to get to .500 they would have to win all three of their remaining games and at this point in the season they have made it abundantly clear that isn’t likely. Here’s a preview of the matchups from the NFC South in Week 15:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, Sunday 1PM EST
Early in the week I would’ve said this game was going to be a blowout. The Panthers are coming off a huge win in New Orleans over the Saints by a score of 41-10 and looking to continue their steam rolling right over the Buccaneers. However, Cam Newton suffering two transverse process fractures in his back changes all of that.
Without Newton on Sunday the Panthers are going to rely much more heavily on Jonathan Stewart and their run game. The Panthers have been fairly efficient on the ground this season and will look to continue that against Tampa Bay’s run defense, which PFF (subscription) grades as the second worst in the entire league.
If the Buccaneers want to escape Carolina with a win they’re going to have to get a good game out of quarterback Josh McCown. The Panthers don’t have a very good pass rush so McCown should be able to get ample time to throw the ball. When McCown faces no pressure he has 63% completion percentage, eight touchdowns, four interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 92.2. This could be a game where McCown goes off, especially considering the Panthers have the 11th worst PFF pass coverage grade in the NFL. While the Buccaneers only have two wins on the entire year I think they’re able to pull off the upset this week and win a close one in Carolina.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcon, Sunday 1PM EST
This matchup could turn into a shootout, especially since it’s on turf. The Falcons are coming off of a loss to Green Bay but still showed everyone how capable they are of putting a lot of points up in a hurry. The Steelers are also coming off an impressive victory of their division rival Cincinnati Bengals.
Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones most likely won’t be at 100 percent this week but even when not fully healthy he’s still able to torch a secondary. It’s certainly going to help Jones that the Steelers have the eighth worst PFF pass coverage grade. Not only that but as a defense they’re still going to have to account for the always dangerous Roddy White.
On defense the Falcons are going to have their work cut out for them. Not only will they have to slow down Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown, they also have to stop Le'Veon Bell from running the ball and catching it coming out of the backfield. Bell is one of the best running backs in the league in the pass game and is also extremely effective running the ball. While the Falcons defense has been pretty awful in pass coverage, they could improve their chances by getting a good pass rush. However, getting to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and bringing him down are two completely different things. The Falcons can certainly put up a good fight in this one as they did against Green Bay, but I think the Steelers prevail and win by a touchdown.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears, Monday 8:30PM EST
These are two teams that don’t have much of an idea of where they’re going. They have the same record but the biggest difference is that the Bears are currently in last place in their division while the Saints are tied for first in theirs. This game could be one of those games that gets out of hand early or it could be one that comes down to the wire and is won or lost on the last play of the game.
On offense the Saints shouldn’t have many issues moving the ball. As long as quarterback Drew Brees can stop throwing interceptions at such a high rate he should have quite the day against the Bears’ fourth worst secondary according to PFF. The Bears are pretty good against the run but the Saints will certainly try establishing the ground game with Mark Ingram to help open up the passing game even more.
On defense the Saints will have a slightly easier time than anticipated given the season ending injury suffered by wide receiver Brandon Marshall last week. However, the Saints will still have to worry about covering Alshon Jeffery and running back Matt Forte, one of the better receiving backs in the NFL. The Saints have the second worst PFF pass coverage grade so Bears quarterback Jay Cutler could end up having himself a day through the air. Although the Saints seem to be a mess right now, especially after having a defensive shakeup because players haven’t been playing as well as the coaches think they should be, I still think they’re not as big of a mess as the Bears at this point. They also have something to play for still while the Bears do not. It won’t be an easy one but I think the Saints win by a touchdown.