A year filled with mediocrity for the NFC South has basically come down to one game to decide which team can get their seventh win to host a playoff game against an 11 or 12 win team. The other game in the division will likely have a large impact on the upcoming draft seeing as how the Buccaneers current sit at the second overall pick. Here’s a preview of the NFC South matchups this week:
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday 1PM EST
The Buccaneers are looking ahead to the draft next year. They realize their offense is dreadful and with just one more loss this year that can all change in May when the draft is held. The Saints are going to use this last game to evaluate the talent they currently have on the roster and the individual players are going to use it as their last chance to showcase their talents to the rest of the league in case they’re out of a job when the new league year starts.
If the Bucs want to win this game they’ll need to pass the ball effectively. The Saints’ is bad in just about every way but the worst part of their defense is their secondary. If the Bucs’ offensive line can give quarterback Josh McCown time to pass they’ll have their best chance of winning. When McCown faces no pressure he has a 61.7% completion percentage, 1,361 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions with a quarterback rating of 89.8. For the Saints it’s simple, Drew Brees can’t keep turning the ball over.
The common school of thought on how to slow down a great quarterback is to get pressure on him without blitzing and sacrificing your coverage. Brees isn’t any different. He is by far at his best when he has no pressure on him. With no pressure he has a completion percentage of 75.6% for 3,493 yards, 29 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 116.5. The Buccaneers have a good pass rush while the Saints are terrible at pass protection so I expect Brees to have very few dropbacks with absolutely no pressure. This is why it will be a closer game than a lot of people expect but the Saints still win by a touchdown.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 4:25PM EST
This is the game that will decide the winner of the NFC South. The Panthers currently sit in first place because of their tie but that could all change. While both teams have played pretty bad football for the majority of the season, both teams are seemingly hitting their strides right now, which should make for a pretty good game.
The Panthers are getting running back DeAngelo Williams back which should make their running game more formidable now. The best part of the Falcons’ defense is their run defense, so the Panthers will need Jonathan Stewart and Williams to have good games so they can establish the run and wear down the defense. What the Panthers will ultimately need is a good game out of their quarterback, Cam Newton. According to PFF (subscription), the Falcons have the third worst pass coverage grade in the NFL. This should allow Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin to have a big game. On the other side of the ball the Falcons will need to take advantage of the Panthers’ weak secondary. While it’s still weak compared to the rest of the league, it’s a unit that has been improving each week and is playing much better right now than they have all season. Even at their best they’re going to have an extremely hard time slowing down Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones. If Jones has a big game it’ll be hard for the Falcons to lose this one. When all is said and done, I fully expect this game to be a close one. The Falcons should win this one by a field goal.