NFC West Week 11 Preview

By Brian Cox on Wednesday, November 12th 2014
NFC West Week 11 Preview

This past week the NFC West stayed about the same. The Arizona Cardinals won another game staying two games in front of the Seattle Seahawks and three games ahead of the San Francisco 49ers. However, this week could be a big week of movement in the division. Here’s a preview of all the NFC West matchups in Week 11:

 

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants, Sunday 1PM EST

The San Francisco 49ers potentially saved their season last week with an overtime victory over the New Orleans Saints. After such an important win in New Orleans, they now have to travel back across the country to play the New York Giants in New York. The Giants are coming off a cross country trip of their own having faced the Seattle Seahawks.

This is an extremely important game for the 49ers (as are all of their games for the rest of the season) because it affords them a great opportunity to get one game closer to the division leading Cardinals. To come out of New York with a win, the 49ers will have to run the ball effectively from the beginning. In all their losses this season they have gotten away from running the ball. Last week they ran the ball 15 times in the first half and went into halftime with a lead. In the second half they only ran the ball seven times and nearly lost the game. It’s no secret that the key to the 49ers’ offensive success starts with their run game. It helps that the Giants have the ninth worst run defense in the entire NFL according the PFF (subscription).

A big boost for the 49ers is going to be the addition of outside linebacker Aldon Smith, who has been reinstated this week and will play Sunday against the Giants. By all accounts Smith has stayed in great shape during his suspension and won’t have a “pitch count” on him this Sunday.

The 49ers will also be playing Chris Borland and Michael Wilhoite at the inside linebacker positions due to injuries to All-Pros Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. Also, due to an injury to nose tackle Ian Williams, look for more action from Quinton Dial and Cornellius Carradine. The 49ers have are being asked to do a lot traveling across the country two weeks in a row and get two wins, but I think their defense is going to carry them until their offense can start to click. I think the 49ers win this game by a field goal.

 

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams, Sunday 1PM EST

The St. Louis Rams gave the Arizona Cardinals just about all they could handle last week for most of the game. I do not think that will be the case this week. If the Rams are to pull off the upset in this matchup, their defensive line is going to need to step up in a big way. They will need to get pressure on Denver quarterback Peyton Manning consistently and get him off his spot on just about every pass. They desperately need a consistent pass rush because their pass coverage ranks eighth worst in the entire NFL according to PFF. With a secondary like that, Manning will shred them if he has time to sit in the pocket.

On the offensive side of the ball, the key to beating a Peyton Manning-led team is to run the ball effectively and control the clock. This helps prevent the Broncos offense from getting into a rhythm and gives Manning less opportunities to hurt your defense. This could prove to be extremely difficult for the Rams because the Broncos have the second best run defense in the league. While the Rams might be able to keep it close for a quarter or two, I expect the Broncos to win this game by multiple touchdowns.

 

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday 1PM EST

Last week the Seattle Seahawks went into halftime against the New York Giants down 14-17. The game was in Seattle. This Seahawks team has been a different team at home than they’ve been in recent years. Away from Seattle the Seahawks have been even more of a different team. This Sunday they will be playing in Kansas City at another one of the hardest places to play for visiting teams, Arrowhead Stadium. Not to mention, it’s the early game.

On defense this Seattle team just isn’t the same as last year. Their defensive line hasn’t been getting the same pass rush as last season, their linebackers haven’t been playing as well, and their secondary isn’t nearly as feared as it was last season. Last year the Seahawks had a PFF pass coverage grade of 85.6. This season it is merely 6.3. In 2013 their PFF pass rush grade was 76.3. In 2014 it is 14.0.  Another major blow to this defense came on Tuesday when one of the best defensive tackles in the league, Brandon Mebane, went down with a torn hamstring and will miss the rest of the season.

On the other side of the ball with Seahawks will be asked to slow down the likes of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. This could be problematic for the Seahawks considering their offensive line hasn’t been successful in pass protection. However, if last week is any indication, they will be handing the ball off a lot to running back Marshawn Lynch to keep the pass rush of the Chiefs honest. If the Seahawks run the ball consistently they’ll have the best chance of leaving Arrowhead with a victory. However, I think the Chiefs will have a sound game plan coming into the game and take an early lead which will force the Seahawks to go away from the run. I think the Chiefs win this game by a field goal.

 

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday 4:25PM EST

This matchup puts the two teams with the best records in the NFC against each other. Both teams haven’t been getting as much respect from the national media as they may deserve, but both defenses are playing extremely well. A big blow for the Cardinals in last week’s game was the loss of quarterback Carson Palmer for the season with a torn ACL. However, their backup, Drew Stanton, has some starting experience already this season and did pretty well for himself. There shouldn’t be too much of a drop off in performance from the quarterback position.

Look for this game to be a low scoring game and a battle of defenses. All the big names for either team are on their respective offenses, their defenses are the true highlights of each team. However, according to PFF, the Cardinals have the sixth worst offense in the entire league. Eventually these numbers are going to catch up to them. This week could be the week as they play a Lions defense which ranks fourth in the league in overall defense according to PFF. However, if the Cardinals are going to win this game it’s going to be by winning the turnover battle. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is known to make some bad decisions throwing the football and to believe in his arm a little too much at times. The Cardinals defense can absolutely prey on quarterbacks like that. If the Cardinals win, it’s because they get multiple turnovers while protecting the ball when they have it on offense. In the end though, I see the Cardinals coming out flat in this game. It’s one thing to lose Palmer for a few games knowing he’s going to come back eventually, it’s completely deflating to lose your offensive leader and quarterback for the entire season. I think the Lions win this one by a touchdown.

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