Lions at Cowboys, Sunday, 4:40 EST, FOX
Of all the playoff matchups, this is the one few could have predicted if you polled writers and fans in the preseason. Many thought the Cowboys would just have another eight-win season and the public perception of Tony Romo has always portrayed him as the quarterback who chokes in big moments.
Detroit passed expectations as well – many believed it would be a two-team race for the NFC North between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Instead, the Lions fell just short of a first-round bye but finished with an 11-5 record thanks to an improved defense and fewer mistakes by Matthew Stafford. There was skepticism when Jim Caldwell was named head coach, but he's been a great fit in his first year with the Lions.
Now that they've passed regular season expectations, Detroit will head to Dallas and fight for the right to move on to the divisional round. A win for the Lions would send them to Seattle, while a Cowboys win would put them on a flight to Green Bay. It will be a tough matchup either way for both teams but the focus right now remains on Sunday's playoff game.
The perception of Romo is simply wrong, in fact it couldn't be further from the truth. People see a quarterback who chokes in big games, but Romo dominated in December to help push the Cowboys to an NFC East crown. While Romo's 34 touchdowns and league-leading 113.2 QB Rating are remarkable, it's his 12-1 TD-INT ratio in four December wins which have made Romo an MVP candidate.
When you pair that with DeMarco Murray's league-leading 1,845 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, this is as balanced as any playoff team can get.
Balance will be key against a Lions defense that allowed a league-low 69.3 rushing yards per game in the regular season, while finishing a respectable 13th versus the pass (231.6 yards per game). Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin has done a tremendous job helping Glover Quin, Darius Slay and James Ihedigbo excel. But the star of this defense is DeAndre Levy who is a Pro-Bowl caliber linebacker but didn't make it because...well there's no logical reason.
What will be key on Sunday is the battle in the trenches between the Cowboys interior line Travis Frederick, Ronald Leary and Zack Martin and the Lions defensive line of Ndamukong Suh, C.J. Mosley and Ezekiel Ansah.
Martin, Frederick and Leary are a major reason why the Cowboys graded as Pro Football Focus second best in run blocking. This is a tough matchup, but the Lions' defensive line can be beat off the snap and pushed a bit to open some lanes. That was evident last week when Packers guard T.J. Lang had great success pivoting Suh to the outside and allowing Lacy to power through the middle. The Cowboys are better at creating running lanes and Murray is a better running back than Lacy, so Dallas can have success running the football.
This isn't a quarterback battle but we will see two different quarterbacks on the field. While Romo's skill-set might start declining in his 12th season, he has been a far better quarterback than Stafford.
While Stafford has all the physical talent and Caldwell has implemented a system to limit his mistakes, he still hasn't become a top-10 quarterback. He should put up some nice numbers once again with the help of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. He doesn't play well versus playoff-caliber teams and that won't change this week.
Dallas has the advantage across the board on offense and the advantage of playing at home. Romo and the Cowboys can pick up the home playoff win and continue to stay hot. The Cowboys won't put up another 40-burger but the balance on offense should be enough to put up four touchdowns.
Injury Report
Detroit
Nick Fairley - (knee) - Doubtful
Larry Warford - (knee) - Out
Dallas
Henry Melton - (knee) - Injured Reserve
Doug Free - (foot) - Questionable
Stat Projections
Dallas
Tony Romo: 23-37, 270 yards, 2 TD's
DeMarco Murray: 23 carries, 93 yards, 1 TD
Dez Bryant: Seven receptions, 118 yards, 1 TD
Detroit
Matthew Stafford: 23-41, 317 yards, 2 TD's, 2 INT's
Joique Bell: 12 carries, 53 yards
Calvin Johnson: Eight receptions, 107 yards, 1 TD
Prediction: Cowboys 31 Lions 17