Crazy me. I always thought the madness that makes up the month of March referred to a bunch of college hoopsters duking it out in some big tournament. You know the one I’m referring to. It’s the one where office secretaries and accountants pontificate about which college basketball teams’ jersey colors are brighter or which school's mascot could eat the other school's mascot in some open field.
Boy, as I wrong. I’m not complaining, mind you, as I’m football-starved. You see, the madness that has Twitter all a flutter this first week of March is the kickoff to the NFL free agent frenzy.
So, with the early returns in—essentially we are two full days into free agency—let’s take a look at two teams who have made a splash with player movement, and how their moves will affect the fantasy football landscape for the upcoming season.
Denver Broncos
I tweeted out this afternoon that the Broncos were the Miami Heat of the NFL, circa 2010. Just as the Heat brass accumulated an all-star team on paper back then, it sure appears John Elway has sold off a couple of car dealerships or something, in order to restock the cupboards for another Super Bowl run in 2014.
Thus far, Elway and Denver have opened the vault for top-flight defensive players Demarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward. Offense at the skill positions was not an issue for Denver this past season. Stopping other teams on those rare instances when the Denver offense wasn’t clicking was an issue; hence, these signings make sense. From a fantasy perspective, we all know Eric Decker has bolted, likely for the Jets, and Knowshon Moreno is testing the free agent waters as well.
My initial take is that the combination of these moves will render little disparity for quarterback Peyton Manning, although I wouldn’t be shocked if his fantasy numbers dip a bit. Elway’s emphasis thusfar has been to strengthen the defense, and Decker is gone. Does this indicate more of a ball-control strategy for Denver versus quick-hit approach? Doubtful, as Peyton will always take what the defense gives him.
He will still control this offense with the precision of a surgeon. And he still has the uber talented Demaryius Thomas, reliable Wes Welker and young surprising tight end Julius Thomas at his disposal.
I believe Demaryius may vie again for a top five receiver finish this coming year, but with a bigger upside, as less targets will be lost to Decker. Meanwhile, Julius likely retains his value. A sleeper in the Denver receiver arsenal could well be the recently re-signed Andre Caldwell, who stands to significantly jump in snaps and targets.
Now, who will carry the ball out of the backfield? We’ll soon know, as the free agent cards play out for Moreno, and the baton is likely passed to the duo or Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman.
If I were a betting man, I would not bet the farm on the Broncos offense matching their 2013 fantasy numbers. OK, I don’t have a farm. And I would never bet a farm on anything. That’s just too complicated for me; I mean, would the cows and chickens be included, if I lost the bet? Or just the actual farm land? See, I’m glad I don’t have a farm to bet here.
Detroit Lions
I’ve already read prognosticators analyze and overanalyze the signing of Golden Tate from both sides of the table. I’ll go on the record as stating that I wholeheartedly believe signing is … well, golden. Ahem. You knew it was coming, so give me a pass here.
Let’s see. A reliable, pass-catcher lining up across from one Calvin Johnson is a good thing? There will be less double teaming of Megatron? Now Matthew Stafford legitimate second wideout target? Yes, yes, and yes, please.
According to Pro Football Focus, Tate dropped only five of a potential 149 targets over the past three seasons. I’ll say that’s reliable. And, he’s going from a Seattle offense that threw the ball roughly 400 times last year to a Lions offense that chucked it up over 600 times. And, according to ESPN, Tate gained 17.6% of his yards after contact last season, highest among wide receivers.
I was high on Stafford having a bounce-back next year even before this move. Now with another bona fide weapon, Stafford should concentrate on throwing to guys in Lions unis, and he’ll be more than fine.
While I’ve covered Tate’s golden potential, Johnson’s upside is in play here, as well. Tate can be a legitimate weapon the Lions offense hasn’t seen in the years since Stafford entered the league. Tate can go deep or provide possession catch and run, likely opening up space for Megatron’s mega-talent.
So, from my chair, I think this one move unequivocally increases the fantasy values of Stafford, Johnson and Tate; I have given each a bump in my rankings.
The football madness in March will obviously and definitively continue, as player movement takes place via free agency, potentially some trades and then the draft in just a few short weeks. The other 30 teams will no doubt make moves that affect fantasy player values—and we’ll provide insight and analysis as they do. In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the new madness of March, football style.