Running backs are always hard to judge in today’s NFL, especially in free agency. Outside of 10 or so players, the effectiveness of running backs from year-to-year can vary incredibly, making it a tough call as to how much money to spend on someone. But no matter the size of their prospective contracts, these are the 10 guys teams will want to go after if they’re in search of a running back.
1. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos
It’s pretty rare when someone like Moreno is a free agent, but it appears as if he’ll test is value outside of Denver. He may not be as hot of a commodity because of his injury history (he missed eight games in 2012 and nine in 2011) but you can’t ignored his 2013 season. Moreno had a career year as Denver’s No. 1 rushing option, carrying the ball 241 times for 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns. Prior to this season, Moreno hadn’t even gotten close to 1,000 yards and his previous career-high for rushing touchdowns was seven. Moreno would fit best with a team who is primarily focused on passing, because his body probably wouldn’t hold up if he was the focal point of an offense. But, coming off a career season, Moreno will definitely get himself a decent contract.
2. Ben Tate, Houston Texans
There were rumors that the Texans were going to trade Tate prior to the NFL’s trade deadline this season, but he finished out his year in Houston and is now one of the top free agent candidates.
Tate could serve as a No. 1 back for a team, but like Moreno, he has major injury concerns, failing to play all 16 games in a season in his three-year career.
But behind Arian Foster, Tate has served a great role as a spell back to Foster, scoring 10 touchdowns in three years and finishing this season averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
Because he’s always been behind Foster, it’s tough to tell what Tate brings to the table as a starting back, but when he started for the injured Foster this year he broke 80 rushing yards in three games.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
No matter who ends up signing Jones-Drew, they will have to deal with the age criticism. The former Jacksonville Jaguar is 28, turning 29 in March, and there’s certainly enough evidence to show that most backs fall off around the age of 30 (Steven Jackson anyone?) but if he lands in the right situation, Jones-Drew can bring his bruising style back to its previous form. The last two years, Jones-Drew has been banged up, only scoring six touchdowns in the last two years combined, but there was a three-year span between 2009 and 2011 when he rushed for over 1,300 yards. Because Jacksonville has been so bad, no one really knows what Jones-Drew could do on a playoff team, but NFL fans are certainly hoping we’ll find out.
4. Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts
Out of all the players on this list, Brown might have the best chance to either get re-signed or have the franchise tag slapped on him. ]
Despite trading for Trent Richardson early on in the year, the Indianapolis Colts used Brown as their top back for the second half of the year. Given Richardson’s awful play in Indy, he’s anything but a guarantee to be a legitimate starting back next season, so they may want to keep Brown around.
But if he leaves, Brown could start for a team, but would be best as a No. 2 option for an already strong team. Brown isn’t the best rusher but he can get involved in the passing game catching 27 balls in 16 games this year for the Colts.
He scored a touchdown in three of his last five games of the season, and he did enough in the second half of the year to raise his free agency stock.
5. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
Is anyone really going to feel comfortable about signing McFadden? Probably not. No matter how much money a team spends on him, they’ll have no idea what they’re getting. McFadden had a huge year in 2010, picking up almost 1,700 total yards but since then, he’s been in and out of the lineup and this year didn’t even break 500 total yards in 10 games.
There’s no question that McFadden is a talented and quick back, so he’ll get signed, but it doesn’t appear as if a team would want him to come in and be a starting back, because there’s no way he’ll play in all 16 games.
6. Rashad Jennings, Oakland Raiders
Sticking with the Oakland Raiders, Jennings is also a free agent, but Oakland is probably more likely to bring him back than McFadden. Jennings has been a backup for all four years of his career, but he raised his free agency stock this year when he was starting games toward the end of the season. In his last eight games, Jennings had games of 91, 102 and 150 rushing yards, scoring four touchdowns in his last four games.
He can also get involved in the passing game, averaging 8.1 yards per reception on 36 catches. Jennings is still probably best served as a backup somewhere, but a team desperate for a starting running back (Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, New York Jets) could pursue him as such.
7. Andre Brown, New York Giants
Who or what exactly is Andre Brown? Well, no one really knows, because he’s only played in 21 NFL games in his four seasons. Brown is constantly injured, starting out in Denver but moving to the New York Giants for the next two years of his career. With the Giants, Brown missed six games in 2012 and eight games this season. But teams looking for a touchdown threat should go after Brown. He’s anything but an every-down back, but in 2012 he had eight touchdowns and this season he picked up three.
8. James Starks, Green Bay Packers
Another unknown commodity, Starks hasn’t played more than 13 games in a season and for the Green Bay Packers, he’s only been a spot starter.
He’ll definitely be available, since the Packers now have Eddie Lacy to lean on in the running game, but Starks could be a serviceable backup for a team. Starks averages 4.4 yards per carry for his career and did have a 132-yard game against the Washington Redskins in Week 2 this season, but it’s the Redskins.
Other than that, Starks has never rushed for 100 yards in a game, but his yards per carry numbers show he can be a third-down back for a team or just a straight backup.
9. Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts
Because of his injured past, Bradshaw probably won’t get as much attention has he deserves this offseason. He was shut down for the 2013 season after just three games with the Colts due to a neck injury, but people are forgetting he does have two 1,000-yard seasons for his career, most recently in 2012 with the Giants. Bradshaw is a bruising back and can wear a defense down, and between Richardson, Brown and Vick Ballard, there’s not really a spot on the depth chart for Bradshaw in Indy.
10. Rashard Mendenhall, Arizona Cardinals
Does anyone really WANT to sign Mendenhall? Probably not. He looked awful with the Arizona Cardinals this season, running for just 687 yards and the previous year, there were questions about his work ethic with the Pittsburgh Steelers. But because of his six years of experience, someone will go after Mendenhall. He did have back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons early on his career, and he had 928 in 2011. But this season should not be his selling point to prospective teams. Against the Jaguars in Week 11, Mendenhall carries the ball 12 times and averaged only 1.2 yards per carry, and in Week 4 against the Buccaneers, he only averaged 1.8 yards per carry. Ouch.