The 2013 NFL free agency period will kick off with the start of the new league year at 4:00pm EST on March 12th. At that point, teams may sign any willing free agent or complete any trade with a willing partner. Following is a list of my top 20 free agents as it stands today, and my predictions for where they will end up.
For the sake of whittling the list down to 20, I weighted age significantly. So, except in extreme cases, I preferred younger players over similarly-qualified older players. There’s the possibility that other players who would rank in this list may be cut between now and then, so this list is composed of free agents as of March 8th.
Note: Players are ranked in alphabetical order
Danny Amendola - WR Prediction: New England Patriots
There’s a good chance that the Patriots will finally come to terms with Wes Welker; but assuming they aren’t able to work out a deal, the Patriots can just sign his younger clone. What Amendola sacrifices to Welker in health history, he gains in age. And while he hasn’t statistically produced anywhere near the same stratosphere as Welker, he’s also been working with Sam Bradford, who is no Tom Brady.
Cliff Avril - DE Prediction: Cleveland Browns
The Browns currently have the most cap space in the NFL, with nearly $47 million to spend. They can roll over some of that, but they’ll need to spend a good bit of it. Putting Avril across from Jabaal Sheard will give defensive coordinator Ray Horton two dynamic young pass rushers to move forward with the hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense he wants. The Browns have been a punchline for a while, but with money to spend and considerable talent already on the roster, they may provide an attractive spot for a young defensive player looking to make his mark.
Connor Barwin - OLB Prediction: Houston Texans
All indications point to the Texans doing what’s necessary to re-sign the former second-round pick. They don’t really have anyone to step into his role, they aren’t hurting for cap space, and he doesn’t really have any reason to uproot himself at this point.
Alan Branch - DT Prediction: Green Bay Packers
After busting out as a nose tackle with the Arizona Cardinals, Branch has somewhat revived his career with the Seattle Seahawks. With his success in Seattle, he’s likely to attract enough suitors to price him out of the Seahawks’ price range, and he can provide great rotational depth in Green Bay’s 3-4 defense. He can play nose tackle in a pinch, giving B.J. Raji a breather, and he could probably challenge Ryan Pickett, Jerel Worthy, and C.J. Wilson for a starting defensive end spot.
Reggie Bush - RB Prediction: Green Bay Packers
Back-to-back players to the Packers, but this one is a real coup. Green Bay have been hurting for a reliable running back for several years. He probably wouldn’t be the best long-term three-down starter, but coupled with a big physical pile-pusher, he would be a game-changing receiving back and a reliable third-down option.
Jermon Bushrod - LT Prediction: New Orleans Saints
The Saints will be in a world of hurt if they lose Bushrod. They’ll likely have to trade up to get one of the top three tackles in the draft, and they need all the draft picks they can get. All the other free agent options will probably be out of their price range, so they should do what it takes to keep their starting left tackle on Bourbon Street.
Jared Cook - TE Prediction: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have boatloads of cap space, and Anthony Fasano and Jeron Mastrud are both free agents, leaving Michael Egnew and Kyle Miller as the only true tight ends under contract. Cook has the potential to be one of the best receiving tight ends in the league, if he can just get out of his own way mentally. At only 25 years old, he can grow for years with Ryan Tannehill.
Glenn Dorsey - DT Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Dorsey had a great college career and he was drafted third overall by the Kansas City Chiefs. However, he was miscast as a two-gapping 3-4 defensive end, and he struggled badly. He fits much better as a penetrating 3-tech defensive tackle, and Seattle is very much in the market for a player fitting that exact role. Given his hefty rookie contract and current low stock, he can join a creative, defense-minded head coach and look to revive his career. Seattle won’t be signing many more free agents from other teams, but “scheme match who's under 27 and undervalued because he flopped in a bad scheme fit” is a very good qualifier for the ones they do target.
Dashon Goldson - S Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Most of the rumors around Goldson right now involve the Cincinnati Bengals, but given Tampa Bay’s $33 million in cap space and dire need of a replacement for Ronde Barber, I think they could come out of the woodwork as a big player for Goldson’s services. His range would complement the hard-hitting, in-the-box tenacity of recent first-round pick Mark Barron, much like it did in San Francisco with Donte Whitner.
Steven Jackson - RB Prediction: Denver Broncos
The Broncos have already dived headfirst in the “win now” pool, so adding a talented but aging veteran shouldn’t faze them. Jackson is perhaps the most underappreciated player in the history of the league. He’s consistently ranked in the highest echelons of active running backs, despite playing on terrible teams with awful offensive lines. The Mile High City isn't far from his hometown of Las Vegas. Denver can cut Willis McGahee, and maybe even Knowshon Moreno, and roll with Jackson and Ronnie Hillman.
Greg Jennings - WR Prediction: Miami Dolphins
Even though Jennings is getting on years and struggling with injuries, he’s still not quite 30. He’s one of the best wide receivers in the NFL when he’s on his game, and Miami’s head coach is his former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. Though the Dolphins just re-upped Brian Hartline, they could still use another capable starter to join him and Davone Bess. Adding Cook and Jennings to that offense should be enough to propel them to the next level.
LaRon Landry - S Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
While Reggie Nelson has nailed down the free safety spot, a rotation of Taylor Mays, Chris Crocker, and Jeromy Miles hasn’t cut it at strong safety. Landry was technically a free safety for the New York Jets, but coverage has never been his strong suit. He’s fought with injuries and up-and-down performance for most of his career, but he’s still only 28 and coming off a career year.
Andy Levitre - OG Prediction: Tennessee Titans
It’s not a sexy signing, but the Titans desperately need someone to fill the shoes of Steve Hutchinson. Levitre is probably the best guard on the market, especially since Louis Vazquez will likely return to the Chargers. If Tennessee can pull this off, adding Jonathan Cooper or Chance Warmack in the draft would make Jake Locker and Chris Johnson very secure and very happy.
Jake Long - LT Prediction: Chicago Bears
The Bears desperately need a left tackle, and Long needs a job. Chicago can’t afford to muck around with their offensive line any longer, as injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte have potentially cost them a shot at the playoffs for the last two years. If Bushrod doesn’t work something out with the Saints, there’s a good chance he heads up to Chicago and rejoins his offensive line coach Aaron Kromer.
Tracy Porter - CB Prediction: San Diego Chargers
Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason are both free agents. Cason may be retained, but the Chargers will be looking for secondary help. New head coach Mike McCoy will be very familiar with Porter, as they both spent last season with the Broncos. Porter is still only 26, and he played well with the Broncos before some freak injury issues sidelined him and he fell out of favor with the defensive coaching staff.
Ed Reed - S Prediction: St. Louis Rams
This signing would be pretty significant. If the Ravens aren’t able to retain Reed, he’ll be a pretty hot commodity. Even at 34, he’s continued to play at a high level. If his contract demands are huge, he’d price himself out of the Rams’ range, but if he isn’t looking to break the bank, he may jump at an opportunity to play for a guy like Jeff Fisher. St. Louis is also fairly close to Reed’s home in New Orleans. Quintin Mikell is at his best playing in the box, so Reed would be free to roam and improvise as he does so well.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - CB Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
Rodgers-Cromartie has fallen out of favor a little bit in Philadelphia, but so has Nnamdi Asomugha, so it’s probably pretty safe to say that it may not be entirely on the player’s back. He’s just the type of long, speedy, athletic defensive back the Seahawks have targeted recently, and at only 26, Gus Bradley may tab him as a guy to build his defense around. If they can re-sign Derek Cox as well, their secondary would be in terrific shape.
Andre Smith - RT Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Even though Eric Winston was released by the Chiefs, Smith is the best right tackle on the market. He’s only 25, so even though he’s reportedly asking for at least $9 million a year, the Bengals should be willing to put some of their more than $45 million toward keeping him around.
Aqib Talib - CB Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
With Rodgers-Cromartie likely leaving as a free agent and Asomugha a likely cap casualty, the Eagles will be in need of cornerback help. Talib is still young (27) and quite talented. He had some character issues with Tampa Bay, but he was squeaky clean after being traded to the Patriots last year. His ability to play top-notch press coverage would make him a great fit in the 3-4 defense Chip Kelly wants to install. He’d fill a need and presumably wouldn’t break the bank, so he’d be a good starting point for the offseason.
Mike Wallace - WR Prediction: Cleveland Browns
Adding two dynamic young free agents like Avril and Wallace in the same offseason would definitely signal a new era for the Browns. New head coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive coordinator Norv Turner will be installing the same vertical offense that Philip Rivers thrived in in San Diego, and Brandon Weeden can fit that offense really well. Throwing Wallace in with Josh Gordon, Greg Little, and Jordan Cameron will set Weeden up for great success, especially when he has Trent Richardson and Montario Hardesty in the backfield.