Outlook
When the 3-1 Detroit Lions arrive at Lambeau field to take on the 1-2 Green Bay Packers, they aren’t just looking for a division win. The Lions will attempt to snap their 22-game losing streak in Green Bay, with their last win coming on December 15, 1991.
But this isn’t your Lions team of old, the Lions were active in free agency and now reign atop the NFC North. While the team struggled in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, the team bounced back in a big way last week at home against the Chicago Bears. The win was highlighted by the running game and defense.
The running game was highlighted by Reggie Bush who was the star of the Lions offseason and has proven to be worth every penny so far. Bush sliced up the Bears’ defense with 139 rushing yards on just 18 carries. The defensive line was dominant as well as Ndamukong Suh showed why he is a serious defensive player of the year candidate. Suh recorded his sacks and his pressure on Jay Cutler helped force three interceptions and a fumble. Detroit would go on to win the game 40-32 although the Bears scored 14 of those points in garbage time.
Green Bay has had two weeks to prepare for the Lions after its bye week last week. The Week 4 bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Packers with numerous injuries to Jermichael Finley, Eddie Lacy, Clay Matthews and Morgan Burnett. Matters were only made worse after a heartbreaking loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. But now the team is getting healthy and returns from their bye week with a chance to make up ground in the NFC North at home.
The Packers will be happy to have all of their stars back this week but maybe no player will be more welcomed than Burnett who missed the first four weeks of the season with a hamstring injury. M.D. Jennings and Jerron McMillian have filled in for the first three games but the defense just hasn’t been the same.
While Green Bay has done an excellent job stopping the run ranking seventh in the league giving up just 93 yards per game. But the secondary has looked awful and has lacked Burnett’s instincts and communication ranking 28th in the league allowing 311 yards per game. Now Burnett will return on healthy and it couldn’t come at a better time against Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford.
Matchup to Watch:
Ndamukong Suh vs. T.J. Lang
Suh has a bad reputation for being a dirty player and taking cheap shots but what his reputation should be built off of is how dominant he has been this season. We saw it last week against Chicago, Suh effortlessly blew past double-teams all game long and created havoc in the backfield. Now he takes on the Packers offensive line and specifically Lang who made the switch to right guard this year.
In the past Josh Sitton would be matched up with Suh and the two Pro Bowl players would battle it out with the advantage swapping between the two every game. Now Lang will have to handle the monster Suh and trying to keep him from destroying the quarterback. This is a contest that clearly favors Suh and will require Green Bay to assist Lang with chip blocks and double teams on Suh. If Green Bay can keep Suh from being a constant problem in the backfield it will pave a road to victory and could be the deciding factor in this game. While everyone will want to focus on the quarterback play the real deciding factor will be in the trenches.
Fantasy Impact:
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers is a must start every week and this week is no difference, but this is a tough matchup. Detroit has allowed 268 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks but they have done an excellent job at forcing turnovers. Detroit ranks second in the league with eight interceptions, and has limited opposing teams to just four passing touchdowns. In three starts Rodgers has scored 71.68 points and is still the ninth ranked fantasy quarterback even after his early bye week. This is a tough matchup for Rodgers but even with limited time to throw he should have a solid game and lead Green Bay to victory.
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
Everyone was excited in Week 2 for Lacy to take on the Washington Redskins awful run defense. Instead he suffered a concussion early in the game and wasn’t cleared to practice until this past week. Now Lacy is healthy and has the opportunity to take on a Lions defense that is giving up 110 yards per game. The biggest concern coming into the game is Lacy’s teammate Johnathan Franklin who ran for 103 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3. This could be a running back by committee situation but Lacy is the starter right now. With Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin and Alfred Morris on a bye Lacy is a good option to start as your second running back this week.
Packers Wide Receivers:
When you have Rodgers throwing you the football you’re always going to be on the fantasy football radar. But this group of weapons is immensely talented and some are worthy of being in your fantasy lineup each week. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson have elevated their game now to the point where they are a must start every week even against an improved Lions secondary. James Jones is a high risk/high reward play and should be kept out of your lineup unless you are in desperate need because of the bye week or play in a deep league.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
While Stafford may have struggled last week against the Bears throwing a touchdown and interception, this week represents a great opportunity for Stafford to bounce back. Even with Burnett returning to the Packers this defense is still without Casey Hayward and struggles shutting down the opposing quarterback. Stafford will throw it plenty in a game that will likely end up a shootout and he will get plenty of opportunities to sit in the pocket and find the open wide receiver. Stafford is definitely a must start this week and someone you can count on for a very good performance.
Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions
When the Lions signed Bush in the offseason many thought this offense would fit Bush well and he could be in for a really nice season. But Bush has surpassed even the most optimistic early in the season and has become the focus of the Lions offense. Bush has become a dynamic weapon for this offense, bursting for big runs up the middle highlighted by juke moves and hurdling defenders. He has also been an excellent option as a receiver taking short screens and turning them into a big play thanks to his vision and great speed. Even against a tough run defense this week Bush can be counted upon to have a big game. He will make plays as a receiver and if he breaks just one big run that will be enough to have a big day.
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
While Johnson is a must start each and every week there is a little bit of risk entering this game against the Packers. He missed practice this week with a knee injury but the injury didn’t appear to hold him out last week against Chicago. It’s likely to be just a minor issue and he is a near lock to play on Sunday, but he may not bet at 100 percent. He will be matched up against Sam Shields who has had a very good season and really gave up just one big play in Week 3 to A.J. Green. But even when Johnson faces double coverage you know Stafford will look his way and he has scored a touchdown in three straight games. In a high-scoring game you definitely should expect a touchdown from Johnson and plenty of yards to go with it.
Prediction:
Coming off a bye this is a must win game for the Packers and they certainly will be prepared for it. The return of Lacy, Burnett, Matthews and Finley will be huge for a team that sorely missed their starters on the road against the Bengals. The defense should show improvement and with their leader back in the secondary they should do a better job this week stopping the pass. Rodgers faces another tough test against the Lions secondary but should not be nearly as bad as he was in his two-interception game in Week 3.
Detroit has done an excellent job improving its roster and should be considered a legitimate contender in the NFC North. History is not on its side in this game but there is no better opportunity than this week to prove they are ready to take the next step and show they are the team to beat in the NFC North. Even with an improved secondary this game will likely result in a shootout but the Lions have the weapons to stay in the game. If they can get the running game going early with some big plays by Bush and create some inside pressure on Rodgers, they will be in great shape to take the game down to the end.
In the end Green Bay will walk away with the victory and extend their home winning streak against Detroit to 23 games. They have had plenty of time to prepare coming off the bye week and the team is finally healthy. In the end Rodgers is the difference maker in this game and the Packers will even up their record to 2-2.
Green Bay Packers 38 Detroit Lions 31