New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
8:10 PM EST
Line: New Orleans +2.5
New Orleans Saints Season Review
With Sean Payton back at the helm, quality rookie talent installed into the secondary, and Drew Brees under center; many expected much from a talented Saints’ team. Despite finishing second in the division and ending up as the fifth seed in the NFC, New Orleans had a much better season than their dismal 2012 campaign. After winning their first five games and opening the season with nine wins on three losses, New Orleans dropped two of their last four to fall into second place in the NFC South.
While the Carolina Panthers were certainly the bell of the NFC South’s ball, the Eagles would be wise not to overlook the league’s primordial passing attack that puts up an average of 307.4 yards per contest. Even without Jabari Greer and Kenny Vaccaro for Saturday’s game at Lincoln Financial Field, the Saints are a wounded animal ready to strike.
Philadelphia Eagles Season Review
The beasts of the NFC East had a roller-coaster of a season under first year head coach Chip Kelly. After defeating last season’s division-champion Redskins on Monday Night Football, Philadelphia lost their next three contests to all three playoff teams from the AFC West: Denver, Kansas City, and San Diego.
With just one win in their first four contests, things looked bleak for the eventual division winners. Fortunately for the citizens of the city of brotherly love, team rallied around Nick Foles who took over for the injured Michael Vick and never looked back. Winning nine of their last 12 contests, Foles led the team with 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions en route to the team’s first playoff berth of the Kelly era.
By baffling opponents with simple yet incredibly complex offensive schemes matched by the perfect balance of offensive play calling, Kelly’s unit thrived on the offensive side of the ball in 2013, and playoff glory could be in store for one of the three most prolific arsenals in football. However, the team’s porous secondary and health issues at safety plagued them all season, especially in losses to Minnesota, Denver, and San Diego.
Eagles Saints
Passing Offense 256.9 (9th) 307.4 (2nd)
Rushing Offense 160.4 (4th) 92.1 (25th)
Scoring Offense 27.6 (4th) 25.9 (10th)
Passing Defense 289.8 (32nd) 194.1 (2nd)
Rushing Defense 104.4 (10th) 111.6 (19th)
Scoring Defense 23.9 (17th) 19.0 (4th)
Turnover Margin 12 (4th) 0.0 (14th)
Point Differential +60 +110
Biggest Mismatch
With the NFL’s leading rusher LeSean McCoy behind an offensive line containing two first-team All-Pro’s in Jason Peters and Evan Mathis, this Eagles offense should have no problem running all over a unit allowing 111.6 rushing yards per game. The Eagles rushing attack is the most dominant in the NFL, and if the Birds’ can control the tempo and keep Brees’ offense off the field, this could be their key to victory.
Key Matchups
Drew Brees vs Eagles Secondary:
One of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks goes up against a unit allowing a league-worst 289.8 yards per game to opposing gunslingers. While Brandon Boykin is emerging as one of the best slot-corners in the league, Cary Williams, Kurt Coleman , and Patrick Chung are weak points the Eagles will have to hide if they hope to steal a home victory.
Brent Celek and Zach Ertz vs. New Orleans Safeties
At first glance Brent Celek and Zach Ertz ‘s solo-contributions are nothing to take a second glance at. However, combined the two Eagles’ tight ends have accrued 998 yards on 68 receptions and 10 touchdowns. Due to the injury to Saints’ defensive center-piece Kenny Vaccaro the New Orleans safeties will have a very difficult time covering both of Foles’ tight ends.
Fantasy Outlook
For those still playing daily or weekly fantasy football during the playoffs, the studs in this game are obvious: Mccoy, Brees, Jimmy Graham and DeSean Jackson. For those looking for diamonds in the rough, check out Ertz (see key matchups) and Marques Colston who both have very favorable matchups. With a gun to my head in regards to choosing a member of the Saints’ backfield, Pierre Thomas ‘s 1,062 yards from scrimmage this year are difficult to overlook, but the injured back has just 170 yards in the Saints’ last five games of the season. Thus, Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram are much safer options.
Prediction
Eagles: 33
Saints: 27
When the weather outside is frightful, running backs are oh so delightful. Match the tenacity Mccoy has for destroying defensive front-sevens with the injuries in the Saints’ secondary, and your formula for an Eagles victory is complete. Though New Orleans scores points in bunches, Philadelphia’s potent offense will be more than ready to keep up with the explosive Saints’.