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NFL Playoffs: Statistical Predictions for Joe Flacco and Andrew Luck

NFL Playoffs: Statistical Predictions for Joe Flacco and Andrew Luck
By Vincent Frank on January 06, 2013

Andrew Luck, Quarterback, Indianapolis Colts 

Lost in all the talk about rookie quarterbacks is the fact that Andrew Luck threw more interceptions in the NFL of any quarterback not name Drew Brees or Tony Romo. He also lost a few fumbles in the offensive backfield. This is something that should concern the Indianapolis Colts. 

One of the primary reasons for this is that Luck was asked to do way too much as a rookie quarterback for Indianapolis. He averaged over 41 passes in his first 13 games. Since, Luck is averaging barely over 30 passes and has not thrown a single interception. 

While Luck is completing less than 50 percent of his passes in the last three games, he has tallied five touchdowns compared to zero interceptions during that span. 

As with most rookie quarterbacks, Luck has struggled on the road. He threw 13 of his 18 interceptions and compiled a quarterback rating of 70.1 away from home. That's not going to get it done at M&T Bank Stadium against a seasoned defense. Luck has also thrown five touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions in six open-air stadiums. 

I am not seeing a whole lot here in terms of expecting big things from the rookie No. 1 overall pick, He has, however, led three fourth quarter comebacks on the road. In those three games has has an accumulative quarterback rating of 77.3. 

Regular Season Average: 21/39, 273 yards, 1.4 touchdowns and 1.1 interceptions. 

Regular Seaon Average (Road): 21/40, 279 yards, 1.4 touchdowns and 1.6 interceptions. 

Projected Stats: 24/42-285 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. 


Joe Flacco, Quarterback, Baltimore Ravens

The good news is that Flacco plays well at home. The bad news is that Flacco just isn't the best quarterback in the NFL. He finished with a quarterback rating of under 70 in five of his 11 starts (four of them coming on the road). Equally as important, he had five games with quarterback ratings of over 110.0 (four at home). This has to tell you a story about the veteran quarterback at M&T. 

Flacco is also playing decent football recently. He has seven interceptions compared to two interceptions in his last four starts. Though, Baltimore did lose three of those games. 

Throughout his career, Flacco has thrown eight touchdowns and eight interceptions with quarterback rating of 70 in nine playoff starts. 

It wouldn't be justified to take a look at Flacco's success, or lack thereof, against Indianapolis. Instead, I will say that he lost four of his five December starts heading into the playoffs despite throwing eight touchdowns and three interceptions during that span. 

Regular Season Average: 20/33, 239 yards, 1.4 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions. 

Regular Season Average (Home): 22/35, 295 yards, 1.9 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions. 

Projected States: 23/36, 275 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. 


Vincent Frank

Vincent Frank

Favorite Quote:
“You were born with wings, why prefer to crawl through life?” (Rumi)
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