At this point in the season, most of the teams have sorted themselves out. There’s very few teams in a gray area, they are either playoff contenders for a Wild Card or divisional spot, or they are just flat-out bad.
Because of that, there’s a number of teams that hardly moved (or didn’t move at all) in this week’s rankings. At the top, though, injuries and performances have shifted a number of teams around, though my top team stays the same.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 31)
Another dreadful game for Blake Bortles, another dreadful game for the Jaguars. Jacksonville and New York are in their own tier toward the bottom of the rankings, and are even worse than Oakland, Tennessee and Washington.
31. New York Jets (LW: 28)
After the Jets upset the Steelers, I probably got a little too excited about their offense. Now, Michael Vick has been benched in favor of Geno Smith, which probably won’t make any difference. Rex Ryan is probably just trying to win a few games toward the end of the year to try to save his job, if he has any chance of doing so.
30. Oakland Raiders (LW: 32)
The Raiders silenced the 0-16 chants last Thursday, upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs. They almost blew it at the end of the game with the extended sack celebration, and needed a 90-yard run from Latavius Murray to score, who was their best offensive player with just four carries.
29. Tennessee Titans (LW: 30)
Tennessee has now lost two starting offensive linemen, including first-round pick Taylor Lewan, which means Bishop Sankey probably won’t approach 80 yards in another game this year. This offense is going nowhere, fast.
28. Washington Redskins (LW: 29)
It seems strange that Washington moved up a spot this week, but that’s just kind of how things worked out. Putting Colt McCoy in could lead to one or two more wins this season than Robert Griffin III, but at this point, Jay Gruden is probably trying to keep his job.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (LW: 27)
Another loss for the Bucs, but they’re still (somehow) only two games out of first place in the NFC South. Not that they’ll actually make any noise for the division title, but it’s worth noting. Among these bottom teams, the Bucs are at least better than the Titans and Washington, though they should already be on the hunt for another quarterback this offseason.
26. Carolina Panthers (LW: 26)
Coming off a bye, the Panthers (like the Bucs) are still somewhat in the running for a playoff spot. They now face very winnable games against the Vikings, Saints and Buccaneers, which could get them back in the hunt. However, the offensive line would actually have to keep Cam Newton upright and open up holes for the running game.
25. New York Giants (LW: 25)
The amazing Odell Beckham catch really overshadowed how bad the Giants defense was against the Cowboys. They now have the ninth worst scoring differential in the league, but face a very easy upcoming schedule. Even if they finish with six wins, it’s time for Tom Coughlin to go.
24. Minnesota Vikings (LW: 24)
No movement for the Vikings this week, despite losing. Honestly, this group of Carolina/New York/Minnesota/Atlanta could be put in any order, there’s certainly no one team out of that group that looks particularly impressive. The Vikings do get bonus points this week, though, for cooling down the red hot Packers offense (relatively speaking).
23. Atlanta Falcons (LW: 22)
I’ve talked a lot about potential coach firings early on in this list, and Mike Smith is next. The Falcons will be in a tough position with Smith if the somehow manage to win the NFC South. Even if they finish with six wins but win the division and host a home playoff game, how awkward would it look to still fire him? I say he has to go no matter what; after the awful playcalling and clock management in the Browns game Sunday, Smith’s stock has never been lower.
22. New Orleans Saints (LW: 21)
I was adamant that the Saints would beat the Ravens on Monday, simply because I didn’t see the Sean Payton-led Saints losing three home games in a row. I was terribly wrong. Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are probably already having dreams of scoring touchdowns on the Saints defense that is allowing 26 points per game.
21. St. Louis Rams (LW: 19)
The Rams defense has really hit its stride, but the offense just isn’t coherent enough to turn those good performances on defense into wins.
20. Chicago Bears (LW: 23)
Chicago now has the second worst scoring defense in the league, and Jay Cutler just can’t keep up with how much the Bears’ opponents are scoring.
19. Houston Texans (LW: 18)
Losing Ryan Mallett for the remainder of the season was the final blow to Houston’s season. They have no general idea what to do with their quarterback position headed into the offseason, and it’s now time for Ryan Fitzpatrick to return, which will really stifle the offense.
18. Buffalo Bills (LW: 20)
Monday night’s drubbing of the Jets was far more about the Jets being awful than the Bills improving. The offense is severely limited with Kyle Orton under center, but the defense has been stellar. If Buffalo wants to keep up in the playoff race, it has to beat the Browns this weekend in Buffalo.
17. San Diego Chargers (LW: 17)
Like the Bills, the Chargers are in a must-win scenario this weekend facing the Ravens on the road. Philip Rivers has the opportunity to throw all over Baltimore’s piecemeal secondary, but he seems to have some sort of phantom injury. If the offensive line and keep his jersey clean, though, Rivers might be able to pull it off.
16. Cleveland Browns (LW: 16)
The Browns really shouldn’t have beaten the Falcons with Brian Hoyer throwing three interceptions, so they don’t move at all this week. Still, at 7-4, it’s impossible to count them out of the playoff picture.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (LW: 13)
With a bye, Pittsburgh was stagnant and got leapfrogged by Baltimore, who looked impressive against the Saints. At this point, the Steelers are the odd team out in the AFC playoff picture, but their defense could certainly take a step forward with a week to get healthy.
14. Baltimore Ravens (LW: 14)
Even Trent Richardson could have run through the holes Baltimore’s offensive line was making for Justin Forsett. Plus, it was the Saints defense. Still, the offense is incredibly balanced and the line is much improved from last year’s unit. Baltimore will find a way to get into the playoffs as long as they continue to mask the secondary.
13. San Francisco 49ers (LW: 12)
All season (and even last year) I knocked Colin Kaepernick and San Francisco’s offense for not being effective enough at throwing the ball. However, whenever the 49ers need a drive, Kaepernick somehow manages to deliver. The defense is healthy now, and Chris Borland has been a nice surprise halfway through the season. In the NFC West though, they are far less likely to make the postseason than Seattle or Arizona.
12. Miami Dolphins (LW: 15)
Despite a loss, the Dolphins were still impressive enough against Denver (this week’s No. 3 team) to move up. Ryan Tannehill is really clicking, only a month and a half after there was talk of the team moving on to Matt Moore at quarterback. The Dolphins also have the eighth best scoring differential, which is oftentimes more indicative of a team’s performance than its record.
11. Cincinnati Bengals (LW: 11)
After embarrassing himself against the Browns three weeks ago, Andy Dalton has won two consecutive games, combining for 453 yards in victories. Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard have also combined for a great tandem in the backfield. Their my favorite right now to win the AFC North.
10. Kansas City Chiefs (LW: 7)
Does a loss to the winless Raiders look bad on paper? Of course. However, they’re still my favorite to get a Wild Card spot in the AFC. They’re actually ninth in offensive Defense-adjusted Value over Average (DVOA), according to Football Outsiders, which means Jamaal Charles is enough on offense to put them ahead of the Chargers and Dolphins.
9. Seattle Seahawks (LW: 10)
Losing Max Unger really hurts Seattle’s chances of making it out of the NFC, as does missing Bobby Wagner. If Russell Wilson can’t get more going in the passing game and they fall to the 49ers this weekend, they could be behind the 8-ball in the West.
8. Arizona Cardinals (LW: 2)
I’ve really taken the Cardinals on a ride these past three weeks. I bumped them down when Carson Palmer tore his ACL, moved them back up when Drew Stanton was successful against the Rams, and now moved them back down when the offense couldn’t do anything against the Seahawks. This seems about the right ranking for them now, though. There’s no way they fall out of playoff contention, but if the offense continues to struggle, they could lose out of the division lead.
7. Detroit Lions (LW: 5)
Detroit’s offense has me seriously concerned, but I just can’t write them off with all the weapons on paper and with how strong the defense has been. They’re first in defensive DVOA and are only allowing 17.3 points per game. Reggie Bush’s return this week should also be helpful to the offense.
6. Indianapolis Colts (LW: 6)
The Colts are still very Andrew Luck dependent, but Luck is so good that he can carry them. Indy closes out the season with Washington, Cleveland, Houston, Dallas and Tennessee, which means they’re a lock to finish at least 10-6.
5. Dallas Cowboys (LW: 9)
Dallas’ offense is good. Really good. It’s fifth in offensive DVOA, and with Tony Romo under center, Dez Bryant is one of the five best receivers in football. DeMarco Murray also has a decent chance to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record, which makes for one of the five best teams in football.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (LW: 8)
This rank is honestly probably way too high for Philly, and if Dallas wins Thursday they’ll overtake the Eagles in the division standings. However, I just feel better about the team as a whole than I do Indianapolis, Detroit or Arizona. The offense is consistent, and Nick Foles is definitively better than Mark Sanchez, and Foles will likely be back for the postseason. The Eagles defense also seems to find a way to force turnovers at convenient times, and the special teams is one of the best units, if not the best, in football.
3. Denver Broncos (LW: 4)
Even with Green Bay’s hot streak, Denver is still first in offensive DVOA. Having C.J. Anderson in the backfield seems to be an upgrade over both Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman, and the Broncos will likely get Julius Thomas back.
2. Green Bay Packers (LW: 3)
Although the Vikings kept last weekend’s game closer than expected, the Packers are still outscoring their opponents by 9.3 points per game. Not much else needs to be said about this team. Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league right now when healthy, and having Eddie Lacy will keep the offensive production up heading into the colder months.
1. New England Patriots (LW: 1)
New England holds serve once again. It doesn’t seem to matter who gets moved in and out of that offense, it still keeps on clicking. LeGarrette Blount could all of a sudden be the feature back, and it just doesn’t seem to matter. This is the Super Bowl favorite in my book.