Just when I thought things were going to settle down in the power rankings, Week 14 happened. There was more movement toward the top again (mainly the Seahawks that ruined things) but for the most part, the tiers of awful/mediocre/good/great teams were pretty distinguishable.
32. Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 31)
The Titans have now lost seven games in a row, and have been outscored by 154 points this season, only three points less than the Jaguars. They now have to switch quarterbacks again with Zach Mettenberger out for the season, and there’s just nothing redeeming on defense.
31. Washington Redskins (LW: 27)
Not only is Washington one of the worst teams in the league, it’s also the most dysfunctional franchise. Who knows if Jay Gruden or Robert Griffin III will even be around next season, and it’s impossible to even know what’s going on with this team on a week-to-week basis. There are teams in the NFL that are worse football teams, but the Redskins get a special downgrade for just being a general disaster.
30. New York Jets (LW: 30)
The Jets have not won a single game on the road this season, have lost three consecutive games and have lost every single game they’ve played in the AFC East. While Geno Smith and Percy Harvin finally made the offense look respectable against the Vikings on Sunday, it’s unlikely they keep that up.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (LW: 28)
Blake Bortles showed some serious poise in the second half of last Sunday’s game against the Giants in a comeback win. His mechanics have been rough this season, but it was nice to finally see him string a few drives together against a much more experienced quarterback on the other side of the field. That all seemed to go away against the Texans this week. The offensive line didn’t do him any favors, but the whole offense fell apart a week after it was actually effective.
28. Oakland Raiders (LW: 32)
I’ve already written multiple times this season that I think Derek Carr is the quarterback of the future for the Raiders, and this weekend’s win over the 49ers cemented that. Carr played a better game than Colin Kaepernick, and elsewhere on the offense, the Raiders finally relented and made Latavius Murray the starting running back, which should have happened weeks ago.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (LW: 29)
Josh McCown hasn’t been actively awful, but a lot of it has to do with Mike Evans breaking out. Either way, the offense can do some things, but there’s just not much else to be excited about besides Evans.
26. Chicago Bears (LW: 24)
I still can’t understand how the offense is this bad, even without Brandon Marshall now. They’ve been outscored by 97 points this year, which has a lot to do with the defense, but there’s actually a serious discussion to be had this offseason about what to do with Jay Cutler.
25. New York Giants (LW: 25)
Yeah, the Giants crushed the Titans. But, it’s the Titans. Prior to that victory, they had lost seven games in a row, and during that stretch, they never scored over 30 points. They’re just bad.
24. Carolina Panthers (LW: 26)
Obviously, best wishes to Cam Newton in his recovery after what looked like a horrific car accident earlier this week. Still, it’s worth mentioning that having Derek Anderson under center will be a downgrade if he has to start more than one game. If the Panthers want to compete for the division title, the secondary has to play better and Newton will hopefully come back healthy at some point.
23. New Orleans Saints (LW: 20)
Oh my the NFC South is bad (hence the Falcons being right above this). None of these teams play any sort of defense, and Drew Brees was dreadful against a bad Carolina secondary. New Orleans now has the fifth worst defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), according to Football Outsiders, which could be the deciding factor in the fight between the Saints and Falcons for the division title.
22. Atlanta Falcons (LW: 22)
Atlanta’s Monday night showdown against the Packers was surprisingly entertaining, and the offense finally woke up to the level it should be at. The key will be the Falcons actually carrying that success over into the final three games.
21. Minnesota Vikings (LW: 23)
Mike Zimmer is starting to make his mark in Minnesota. The defense is now 16th in DVOA, and the Vikings have only been outscored by 18 points all year, which is basically one game for some of these other teams.
20. Cleveland Browns (LW: 17)
As soon as Cleveland’s secondary starts to get back on track, and Joe Haden plays the corner he is, the offense totally goes flat after starting out hot this season. The Browns just haven’t been able to string enough wins together this season on both sides of the ball, and they are basically eliminated from playoff contention at this point.
19. Buffalo Bills (LW: 16)
The Bills are finally starting to look like the team that their talent should limit them to. The Bills are only scoring 21.6 points per game, but the defense has been playing well enough to get them to seven wins, which is fair. But against better teams such as the Broncos, the offense cannot keep up upper-tier offenses.
18. San Francisco 49ers (LW: 13)
Speaking of teams who are eliminated from the playoffs, the 49ers sealed their fate after losing to the Raiders, which certainly should have been a win. Earlier on in the season in these power rankings, I wrote about how the Jim Harbaugh situation would eventually catch up to San Francisco. At this point, though, the problem really seems to lie with the offense. Frank Gore can’t run at the level he used to, and Kaepernick has a passer rating of just 85.1 on the year, worse than Eli Manning and Kyle Orton.
17. Houston Texans (LW: 19)
Can J.J. Watt really win MVP? Probably not, but he’s far and away the best defensive player in the league, and should at least be ranked in the top five in MVP voting, which literally has been enough this season to keep Houston in the middle of the pack.
16. St. Louis Rams (LW: 21)
St. Louis is the hottest team in the league. With back-to-back shutouts, the Rams actually have a point differential of zero on the year, which is basically the definition of the No. 16 team in the league.
15. Kansas City Chiefs (LW: 12)
In back-to-back games now, Andy Reid has totally phased Jamaal Charles out of the gameplan in the second half, which is a huge mistake. In both games, the Chiefs have floundered toward the end and lost. Kansas City was once a lock for me for the Wild Card, but now it’s anyone’s spot.
14. Miami Dolphins (LW: 11)
If you were designing a team specifically to beat the Ravens this season, the Dolphins wouldn’t be the best option, considering they hardly throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field. The run defense has been much worse these past two weeks, and the rushing offense hasn’t done enough to keep up with the lapses on defense.
13. San Diego Chargers (LW: 15)
Out of all the potential Wild Card teams, the Chargers have the toughest finishing schedule, which is why I’m actually moving them up this week. I wouldn’t expect even the best teams in the league to beat Baltimore and New England in back-to-back weeks, and when Philip Rivers had to beat the Ravens two weekends ago, he did. It’ll be tough to beat the Broncos this weekend, but the Chargers have a legitimate chance to beat the 49ers and Chiefs in the final two games with how well Rivers is playing.
12. Baltimore Ravens (LW: 14)
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (LW: 18)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (LW: 10)
For the sake of saving space, I’m grouping the three AFC North teams together. Of this bunch, I still think the Ravens are the worst. When they have to face a good passing team, like they did against the Chargers two weeks ago, they are in trouble with that awful secondary. Pittsburgh’s passing offense is much better than both these teams, but I’m not convinced they can be consistent enough to close out the season. That’s why the Bengals are my favorite to still win the division. They have a 0.5 game lead, and are actually 5-2 in their past seven games, which no one seems to realize.
9. Arizona Cardinals (LW: 9)
Arizona’s win over the Chiefs wasn’t exactly convincing, but they helped their playoff chances significantly by getting to 10 wins already. The defense was much better even without Tyrann Mathieu, but had the Travis Kelce fumble not been ruled a fumble (it wasn’t a fumble) the Chiefs would have closed it out.
8. Dallas Cowboys (LW: 7)
If the Cowboys lose this weekend to the Eagles, there’s a legitimate chance the Cowboys miss out on the playoffs with the Seahawks and Lions playing so well, but it’s tough to pick against DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant right now.
7. Indianapolis Colts (LW: 5)
Despite a win, I’m moving the Colts down this week. Andrew Luck has been slightly more turnover-prone than I’d like, and there were a few opportunities Sunday for the Browns to legitimately put them away. This team is just too Luck-dependent, but they also will be one of the first squads to lock up a playoff spot.
6. Detroit Lions (LW: 6)
The Lions are third in defensive DVOA after this weekend’s games, and have moved up to 18th on offense. It’s still not great, but it’s also not bad or a team that was in the 20s earlier this season. Calvin Johnson seems to be healthy now, which has raised Matthew Stafford’s level of play.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (LW: 4)
It’s not that I don’t like the Eagles at this point, but the Seahawks are just more convincing right now, especially after they made Philly’s offense look awful.
4. Seattle Seahawks (LW: 8)
It’s amazing what getting some linebackers back healthy will do for a defense. Seattle’s defense looks like the unit that won a Super Bowl last year. The passing offense will still hold this team back in the playoffs, but the Seahawks are just a better team right now than the Eagles, and it’s not really close.
3. Denver Broncos (LW: 3)
No movement inside the top three this week. The Broncos are actually fifth in defensive DVOA and second on offense, with a game against the Raiders to play. It’ll be tough to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but grabbing a first-round bye in the AFC will be no problem for this team.
2. New England Patriots (LW: 2)
This weekend’s win over the Chargers was just business as usual for Tom Brady and the Patriots. No receivers had to be totally outstanding for the Pats to get the win, but the defense stifled Rivers and the Chargers’ offense, and they once again used LeGarrette Blount to control the clock and the game.
1. Green Bay Packers (LW: 1)
Julio Jones had the best individual receiving performance in Falcons history against the Packers, and they still won convincingly. Aaron Rodgers’ offense has just been that good.