32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 24)
The Bucs are without a doubt the worst team in the league. The Raiders and Jaguars at least have some redeeming qualities at this point. There’s not a single thing that Tampa Bay has that their fans should be excited about. Besides Mike Evans.
31. Oakland Raiders (LW: 32)
Derek Carr looks like a legitimate option at quarterback for the Raiders, but other than that, there’s not much else that is redeeming about the Raiders. They have a long way to go.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (LW: 31)
In the next five games, the Jaguars play the Browns, Dolphins, Bengals, Cowboys and Colts. Their best chance for a win likely won’t come until Week 16 when they play the Titans again.
29. New York Jets (LW: 29)
Besides the run defense, there’s nothing redeeming about the Jets right now. They don’t have enough receivers, Geno Smith seems to be regressing, and the secondary just took another hit with losing Dee Milliner for the season.
28. Tennessee Titans (LW: 30)
Looking back six weeks, ago, I’m still amazed how Tennessee beat the Kansas City Chiefs, 26-10. This is just a bad team.
27. Minnesota Vikings (LW: 27)
Among all current starting quarterbacks, Teddy Bridgewater has the second toughest schedule, according to our premium stats (paid subscription required). In a stacked division with a declining defense, the Vikings won’t hold up.
26. St. Louis Rams (LW: 28)
Each game, it seems as if the Rams choose to play one half of football, but in the other half, they fall apart. Austin Davis has been serviceable, but the running game has struggled to get anything going. Even an average team would have made the 49ers pay for their bad play calling Monday night, and the Rams didn’t.
25. Washington Redskins (LW: 26)
There’s a real conversation going on right now that Colt McCoy should become the starting quarterback in Washington. Yikes.
24. Houston Texans (LW: 25)
Houston’s schedule is so easy, that it’s easy to see it finishing the season as a .500 or better team. But talent-wise, Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t been able to do enough, and the defense is really missing Jadeveon Clowney as J.J. Watt continues to carry them on that side of the ball.
23. Buffalo Bills (LW: 23)
Buffalo is entering a stretch of games where it plays the Jets and Vikings in three out of its next five games. The Bills will continue to hover around the .500 mark, but their offense is rated 27th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders. They simply can’t score enough to approach the eight-win mark.
22. Miami Dolphins (LW: 22)
Losing Knowshon Moreno for the season is a huge blow to the Dolphins, who have been relying heavily on their running game. Cameron Wake continues to be a huge difference-maker for the defense, but the Dolphins don’t do any one thing particularly well to be playoff contenders.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (LW: 20)
After years of dominating on defense, Pittsburgh’s age is finally catching up to it. The defense is ranked as Pro Football Focus’s seventh worst, and is ranked 23rd in DVOA on Football Outsiders. With upcoming games against the Texans, Colts and Ravens, the Steelers are trending in the wrong direction.
20. Atlanta Falcons (LW: 18)
The Falcons might have a better offense if they just got the ball to Antone Smith on every play, but unfortunately, that’s not the case. Instead, the Falcons aren’t scoring enough points to keep up with a dreadful defense that has allowed the third most points this season.
19. New York Giants (LW: 17)
After losing Victor Cruz for the season (New York’s best offensive weapon) the Giants offense will take a step back after it was just looking to be getting its bearings under new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. Eli Manning has a worst Pro Football Focus rating that Charlie Whitehurst and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the defense is allowing 378 yards per game. Neither of those stats are great signs.
18. New Orleans Saints (LW: 19)
After a bye week, the Saints will have to go into a stretch of games against the Lions, Packers, Panthers, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens. Two or three of those without Jimmy Graham. There’s a real scenario here where no one would be surprised if New Orleans was 3-8 or 4-7 by Week 14.
17. Cleveland Browns (LW: 21)
Unlike the Saints, the Browns are entering a very easy stretch of the schedule where no one would be surprised if they were 6-2 by Week 10. Brian Hoyer completed eight passes against the Steelers on Sunday, and the Browns still won by 21 points. The defense gives me pause, but Mike Pettine is finding a way to pull these games out.
16. Kansas City Chiefs (LW: 16)
After a bye week, the Chiefs have a fresh start sitting at 2-3. Kansas City has looked really good in their past three games, despite losing to the 49ers in Week 5, and Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis have led the Chiefs to be the fourth best rushing team in the league. Unfortunately, in the AFC West, it’ll be tough for them to make a playoff push.
15. Carolina Panthers (LW: 15)
After another win, I still can’t figured out the Panthers. Cam Newton had his best game of the season, the they relied solely on him to produce in the rushing game. Until the running backs get healthy, and the defense steps up (they’re allowing the seventh most yards per game) Carolina will be on shaky ground, but their prospects for the playoffs are looking great in a bad division.
14. Chicago Bears (LW: 14)
Matt Forte is PFF’s ninth ranked running back, and Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall both rank among their top 21 wide receivers. The offense has been humming despite Jay Cutler’s turnovers, but Cutler will need to play smarter if the Bears want to win a tough division.
13. New England Patriots (LW: 13)
No movement this week for the Patriots either way. Tom Brady continues to look just OK, and losing Stevan Ridley was a huge blow. But the defense has stepped up in a big way and is playing as well as they were expected to heading in to the season.
12. Detroit Lions (LW: 8)
Detroit’s defense ranks first in DVOA, and Jason Jones and Ezekiel Ansah are fifth and third, respectively, in total quarterback hits this season. This team used to be all about Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, but now this defense is getting it done. Still, they fall for having poor offensive production without Johnson in the lineup.
11. Arizona Cardinals (LW: 12)
Arizona’s win over Washington wasn’t entirely convincing, but the offense did look much improved with Carson Palmer back. Andre Ellington was able to contribute in the passing game, and despite all the injuries, the Cardinals defense is being effective.
10. San Francisco 49ers (LW: 7)
Had San Francisco played even an average team Monday night, like the Chiefs or the Panthers, they probably wouldn’t have won the game. Head coach Jim Harbaugh was too aggressive on fourth down, and passed up easy field-goal points in the fourth quarter, and the 49ers couldn’t convert enough first downs to ice the game. However, Colin Kaepernick and the passing offense had some big plays that kept them in the game.
9. Baltimore Ravens (LW: 10)
Somehow, the Ravens are getting by a sub-par secondary. Joe Flacco had one of the best halves for a quarterback ever against Tampa Bay on Sunday, and Baltimore is now tied for ninth in total passing yards. As long as Flacco and the offense are scoring enough points, the lack of talent in the secondary can be covered for.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (LW: 5)
Sure, a tie wasn’t as bad as a loss this weekend for the Bengals, but the teams ahead of them simply played better football and were able to jump them. Andy Dalton has just been average, but the rushing game has been so effective that Cincinnati is comfortably in place as the best team in the AFC North.
7. Indianapolis Colts (LW: 9)
After losing their first two games, the Colts looks like they could contend for an AFC title game. The biggest surprise in Indianapolis has been the secondary. Vontae Davis has held opposing quarterbacks to just a 34.3 rating when throwing at him, and Greg Toler has held them to a 66.6 rating. If that production keeps up, the Colts could find themselves in the top five soon.
6. Green Bay Packers (LW: 4)
Like the Bengals, other teams were simply more impressive than Green Bay this week. Aaron Rodgers led a miraculous final drive, but that can’t hide the poor defense forever. The Packers are allowing the most rushing yards per game, and the fifth most passing yards.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (LW: 6)
Great teams blow out bad teams, and that’s exactly what Philadelphia did Sunday night. There was never a doubt that the Eagles were going to lose to the Giants, and the offense looked as aggressive and smooth as ever. LeSean McCoy also had his first 100-yard game of the season, averaging 6.8 yards per carry, which is a great sign for Philly going forward.
4. Dallas Cowboys (LW: 11)
The Cowboys make the largest jump of any team this week, for obvious reasons. I was probably too low on them last week, as DeMarco Murray made me look dumb. Dallas is now the best rushing team in the league, and are actually ranked as PFF’s 12th best defense, despite many predictions that they’d be historically bad this offseason.
3. Seattle Seahawks (LW: 1)
If Seattle and Dallas play 10 times this season, Seattle might win seven of them. But, the Cowboys stifled Russell Wilson early on, and the Seahawks were quick to abandon the running game. Murray and the Cowboys also showed that Seattle can be run on. Still, for the remainder of the season, I like Seattle’s chances of reaching the Super Bowl far more than I do the Cowboys.
2. San Diego Chargers (LW: 3)
The Chargers have been able to get it done this season with a number of ways. Branden Oliver has stepped up with Donald Brown, Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead all out, and Eddie Royal and Malcom Floyd have both been more effective receivers than Keenan Allen. This team is primed to give my No. 1 team a run for it’s money.
1. Denver Broncos (LW: 2)
There’s certainly a case to be made for the Chargers and Cowboys to both be No. 1 this week. But if I’m picking one team to win the Super Bowl right now, it has to be the Broncos. Their offense is ranked first in DVOA, and Peyton Manning already has 15 touchdowns in five games. Tight end Julius Thomas is also on pace to eclipse Rob Gronkowski’s record of 17 touchdowns in a season. This is the best team in the league.