IT’S HERE!!! IT’S HERE!!!! The game we’ve all been waiting for all season is finally here. The Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Denver to take on Peyton Manning and the Broncos. At first glance this is the game you always like to watch, probably the best offense versus one of the top defenses in the league. To make it even better these two teams share the same division, making the win that much more important for both of these teams. This might be one of the biggest games of the year with only the second meeting in Kansas City surpassing it. So lets point out what each team does well first, and then we’ll talk about what each team will have to do to win.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos offense is just stupid good. They currently lead the NFL in points with 371 in only nine games played. To put that in perspective for you, number two are the Dallas Cowboys with 274 points in 10 games. So you don’t have to do the math, they are averaging 41.2 points per game the only team averaging over 30. They also lead the league in first downs per game (27.4) and 3rd down percentage (49.5).
This offense is fantastic, they're so efficient and are so good at scoring quickly. Manning been really good this year and it looks like he is definitely going to play this weekend even with the ankle injury.
He’s the key to this team doing well especially with Coach John Fox recovering from heart surgery. Manning is not only the quarterback but the offensive coordinator and him not playing greatly drops the Broncos chances to win.
Right now Manning is leading the league in almost every passing category. Number one in yards with 3249, yards per game 361, and touchdowns 33.
If he can stay healthy it’s hard to see anyone else winning the MVP this season. The Broncos and Manning also have a host of offensive weapons that will frustrate any defense
Offensive Weapons
The Broncos have two receivers with over 50 catches this year, Demaryius Thomas leads the team with 55 and Wes Welker is second with 53. They also have two more with over 40 catches. Eric Decker with 49 and tight end Julius Thomas with 42. They also have a host of running backs that are involved in the passing game which makes it impossible to guard every single one of them. This means that these guys are probably in single coverage on most plays. Welker, D.Thomas and, J.Thomas all have nine touchdowns so for opposing defensive coordinators its a pick your poison situation. I would hate to be the guy asked to out smart Manning and stop these guys from getting loose.
The running game is pretty average mainly because they don’t run much. The lead guy is Knowshon Moreno and he only averages around 13 carries a game and only 59 yards per game. The only time you’ll really see them go to Moreno is in the red zone or the occasional first and ten or short yardage situation.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs primary strength is defense and they do that VERY well. They have a defense full of elite athletes that can shut opposing offenses down. The Chiefs have the best defense when it comes to points allowed. They lead the league with 111 points against in nine games which comes out to 12.3 per game. They also lead the league in 3rd down percentage with 25% which means these guys know how to get off the field.
Derrick Johnson leads the team in tackles with 68, impressively 60 of those are solo. They also have defensive backs like Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry who aren’t afraid to come and support in the running game.
They are second and third in tackles with 42 and 40. These guys all fly around the field which is what you like to see in a team defense.
They also have two guys that are masters at getting to the quarterback in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali.
Houston has 11 sacks while Hali is number two on the team with nine. This constant pressure is what helps them cause a lot of turnovers, they’re tied for second in the league with 12 interceptions.
The Match Up
I’m liking the Chiefs more and more, mostly because of their physical defense that can push around the finesse Broncos. That style of defense has proven effective against the Broncos, just look at the Colts game for an example. The Colts were able to put heavy pressure on Manning and the defensive backs played a lot of press man coverage jamming the receivers at the line. I fully expect the Chiefs to use the same game plan as the Colts in hopes to make Manning uncomfortable.
If the Broncos want to have a chance to win this game offensive line will have to play very well and keep the athletic pass rushers away from Manning. D.Thomas and J.Thomas will need to step up and consistently get open. From what I have seen this season from Welker and Decker I expect them to be taken out of the game completely. Decker especially hasn’t done very well in press man coverage this season against physical defensive backs like the Flowers and Sean Smith. They both are also suffering from injuries so we’re not sure if they will be 100% come game day.
Manning is also suffering from an ankle injury that seems to be getting worse more than it’s getting better. A couple reports say that he will definitely play this week, but we can never be sure how hurt a player actually is. If Manning isn’t 100% that will affect the Broncos chances as well.
What I think the defining factor in this game will be the Broncos defense versus the Chiefs offense. The Broncos D has been pretty bad so far this year, unlike the Chiefs defense the Broncos rank 22nd in the league in points allowed (238). And they’re ranked 17th in 3rd down percentage which means they have some trouble getting off the field. This is what in my opinion gives the Chiefs the advantage in this game.
Not only do they match up well against the Broncos offense but they match up perfectly against the Broncos terrible D. Their offense may not be high flying with a lot of points scored but they are very good at staying on the field and eating up clock. They are ranked number three in the league in time of possession averaging around 32 minutes per game. Alex Smith isn’t going to carry your fantasy team but he is a good quarterback that takes care of the ball and keeps the offense moving. Jamaal Charles is also having a really good year running the ball, just another reason why I am leaning more towards Kansas City in this game.
Keys to Win
For Denver, they want to win this game they have to force the Chiefs into a shootout. The Chiefs are not a team designed to keep up with a high scoring offense I don’t think they are capable of putting up 40 points or more. The Broncos receivers will have to bring their A game and find openings in the defense. The o-line will really REALLY have to protect Manning in this game. He’s already banged up and the Chiefs defenders do an excellent job of getting to the quarterback, especially Houston and Hali. The defense will also have to step up and be able to get the Chiefs off field giving Manning more opportunities for points.
The Chiefs will have to do the opposite and try to contain the Broncos offense. I feel if they can keep Denver to 20 points or less they have a really good chance of winning the game. If the corners can put good jams on the wide outs and the d-line/linebackers can make Manning uncomfortable in the pocket they’ll have a good chance to do so. The Chiefs offense also needs to do their part in keeping Manning off the field. They need to feed Charles early and often, especially since I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Broncos defense.
I think this game will go to the Chiefs even though they’ll be playing at Mile High. I think the Broncos are just too banged up and they haven’t proved that they can play well against a really good physical defense. I’m taking the Chiefs in a close game 24-21.