Ryan Tannehill (by Derrik Klassen)

Due to the attention that Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Robert Griffin III receive, Ryan Tannehill is often the forgotten quarterback from the 2012 class, but that should not be the case. Even Kirk Cousins trade talk is a hotter topic than anything related to Tannehill. Tannehill has shown all the tools to deserve being talked about in the same regard as those others and has been criminally overlooked. Despite the Dolphins being a relatively bad team due to poor management, Tannehill nearly carried them to the playoffs. Tannehill is easily the AFC’s most underrated quarterback, but why?

Above is a collection of four games from the middle of the 2013 season (vs Buffalo, New England, Tampa Bay, Carolina). (106/152; 69.7%)

Above is a collection of four games from the beginning/end of the 2013 season (90/124; 72.6%)

(Total: 196/278; 70.5%)

To an extent, Tannehill is a robotic quarterback. He abides well to the constraints and requests of Miami’s system, such as keeping priority to the primary receiver and not running instead of throwing. On one hand, that makes Tannehill an easily moldable quarterback, but on the other hand, it may lead one to believe Tannehill can not improvise. Luckily, that is not the case. When Tannehill is forced out of the pocket, which is often due to horrendous offensive line play, he keeps his eyes downfield as he scans for an open receiver. He is able to make smart decisions on the fly and finish them with an accurate pass. When on the move like that, Tannehill’s accuracy does not suffer, nor does his decision making. In fact, although moving pockets typically confine quarterbacks, Tannehill thrives when allowed to be able to move around freely. That being said, he does not have issues inside the pocket.

Despite having enough mobility to make teams pay for not accounting for him, Tannehill preferred to hang in the pocket and do his work from there. Then again, Miami’s staff seemed intent on forcing him to stay there, but nonetheless, he was superb. In the midst of pressure from rushers and blitzers, Tannehill showed the ability to maneuver the pocket, evade a rusher, and deliver a smooth throw. Now, there were instances where he had mental lapses and immediately bailed the pocket, but they were much less common than his instances of brilliance. Not only did Tannehill show brilliance through his pocket presence, but he had flashes of top notch mental ability.

To be fair, Tannehill certainly had his fair share of poor decisions and forced passes, but there were strokes of genius sprinkled in as well. Below, Tannehill keeps his eyes locked on the receiver to the far left, then quickly fires at the receiver crossing over the middle. The defender trying to read his eyes was too slow to react to the quick change because he had been fooled by Tannehill.

As a pure passer, mental ability and athleticism aside, Tannehill is naturally gifted. His velocity on all levels of the field is not elite, but is easily on par with some of the NFL’s best passers. Generally, Tannehill’s accuracy is wonderful across the field until he crosses a certain threshold. At about 20 yards downfield, and sometimes shorter than that when throwing over the middle of the field, Tannehill’s poor weight transfer leads overthrows. Considering Tannehill has only been back to playing quarterback for four years, he is still a raw player that has room to grow. It is a correctable flaw, but as of now, is his most fatal.

Like any top tier quarterback, Tannehill is able to do the little things that give defenses fits. If necessary, Tannehill is able to move his release point to compensate for oncoming defenders without losing velocity or accuracy. Likewise, Tannehill is often accurate when throwing from an awkward platform, such as across his body or, as stated before, on the move.

Tannehill is far too often pointed to as the root of Miami’s issues. Few realize that his most reliable receiver was an H-back (Charles Clay) and that his offensive line allowed 58 sacks despite Tannehill having good pocket presence, awareness, and mobility. Tannehill is still a raw player, yet has already shown the ability to accomplish so much. No, he is not the level of quarterback that can take any team to the Super Bowl, like Aaron Rodgers, but the thing is, only a select few are. With the addition of new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and (hopefully) a revamped offensive line, Tannehill will be able to finally prove himself to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Expect the Dolphins to be in strong contention for the AFC East title next season, and for Ryan Tannehill to be leading that crusade.

Tom Brady (by Nathan Manickavasagam)

As tough as it is to say it, Tom Brady is declining. It’s hard to accept that arguably the best Quarterback of all time isn’t as good as we think he is, but that’s the hard truth. There are very noticeable differences in his play over the past few years, his biggest issue being accuracy. Often times, his receivers let him down. There were some very, very, easy completions that ended up as drops due to the youth and inexperience of the Patriots receiving core. While that’s true, not many people talk about the many times Brady was actually the one holding back the offense. That said, he’s still a decent QB, so don’t be surprised if he ends up in my top 10 at the end of this project. Let’s begin.

Above is a collection of four games; two from the beginning of Brady’s games (Buffalo, Tampa Bay) and two near the end (Cleveland, Baltimore). (113/168, 67.2% accuracy)

Above is a collection of the four middle games of Brady’s eight starts (vs NYJ, Miami, Pittsburgh, Carolina). (101/143; 70.6% accuracy)

(Total: 214/311; 68.8%)

In comparison to other QBs, Tom Brady uses much more of the field. It doesn’t take a genius to see the differences between Brady’s passing chart, and EJ Manuel’s passing chart. Bill Belichick’s offense utilizes the entire field to make the most of what the defense gives him. With an offense like Buffalo’s it’s much easier to predict where the ball is going to go. With enough tape study, a CB could easily notice a pattern and learn when to jump a curl. In New England’s offense, you never really know where the ball is going. It is widely known that Belichick’s offense is very tough for new receivers, even Chad Ochocinco had some trouble with it later in his career. This is due to the diverse route tree that Belichick utilizes. This both a gift and a curse, as if it’s successful, it’s very effective. If you happen to have young WRs(who New England happened to have this past year), then there’s going to be some growing pains. It’s for this reason that I believe New England’s offense will be better next year. Anyway, let’s talk about Brady specifically.

As you can see, Brady fared about the same everywhere on the field. He didn’t have one area where he specifically struggled(Although you could argue the sideline, there’s just not enough to go with.) Brady was average in terms of accuracy, which is below what you’d expect of a successful QB like him. Many of his throws were sporadic and often veered way off of the intended target. When you watch old film of Brady, you see touch and accuracy, which were his strengths. However, when you watch 2013 film, you don’t see it. Brady struggled not only on the hard throws, but also with the “easy”. This leads me to believe that he has simply lost some touch on the ball. He doesn’t thread the needle like he used to, but even at his current playing level, he’s still fairly good.

Here’s a typical “Brady Play”. Right off the snap, you can see that it’s man across the board, with a single safety over the top. Brady recognizes this and before the play even starts, he knows where he wants to go with the ball. Even with a safety over the top, Brady makes a good read and, in return, a first down and more.

Again, nothing crazy here. Right off the snap, Pittsburgh drops into a zone coverage with Troy Polamalu as the single-high safety. Brady checks the right side of the field, sees Troy start running that way, then finds Amendola for an easy Touchdown. Neither of these throws have required too much mechanical precision, it’s mostly just instinct and experience, somewhere that Brady thrives.

Now, here’s a play that a younger Brady probably would have made. As you can see, the ball is very behind Michael Hoomanawanui. In fact, the linebacker in front of him nearly picked it off. Had Brady placed the ball a little bit further to his right, this would have been a very large pickup.

There’s no doubt that Brady is still a talented QB, but he just isn’t the same “Elite” QB that he used to be. Some people argue that he’s still top 3, but I just don’t think I can buy into that. However, I do believe New England’s offense will be better this year, and I’d say they’re still a safe bet for winning their division. As for Tom Brady, don’t expect much better than what he produced this year.

Geno Smith (by Derrik Klassen)

Considering Geno Smith’s initial hype as a prospect, the New York Jets drafting him in the second round was seen as a steal. That may have been the case, but as a rookie in 2013, Smith disappointed. The year was filled with recurring issues, mental mishaps, and inexplicable inaccuracies. Near the end of the season, he picked up his play a bit, but not nearly enough for one to believe he is the future of the New York Jets franchise. To be fair, the offense around him was mediocre, but he proved that he was to blame for much of the offense’s struggles.

Above is a collection of four games from the beginning/end of the 2013 season (vs Buffalo, Tennessee, Oakland, Carolina). (76/115; 66.1%)

Above is a collection of four games from the middle of the 2013 season (vs New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Buffalo). (55/88; 62.5%)

(Total: 131/203; 64.5%)

A fair amount of Smith’s issues root from his poor mechanics. Starting from the ground up, Smith’s footwork is troublesome. During dropbacks, his feet are efficient, but when planting to throw, he seldom aligns his feet correctly (front foot directed toward intended target). This often led to Smith restricting yards after the catch or missing entirely due to poor ball placement as a result of his footwork. Likewise, his weight transfer is subpar. This tended to be an issue when throwing deeper down the field as he would often overthrow his intended receiver. Even Smith’s throwing motion is an issue. His motion resembles that of a baseball pitcher. Smith leans his body forward and lifts his back foot. Doing so restricts himself from being able to create torque on throws, leading to throws ending up behind the intended receiver and limited yards after the catch.

Mentally, Smith has glaring deficiencies. To some extent, Smith’s mental mishaps may be a product of his youth, but then again, some decisions were simply inexcusable. From a passing standpoint, Smith forced some passes that left audiences, including myself, dumbfounded. On top of that, his awareness and handling of pressure goes beyond being a rookie; he simply struggles in that aspect. He is often too late to feel the presence of rushers, leading to panicky throws and decisions. The most embarrassing decision of all can be seen below:

On the flip side, Smith flashed a few promising traits. While he is not a Cam Newton type athlete, Smith showed impressive ability to take off and run in order to move the chains or pick up a few easy yards. Seldom did he unnecessarily bail the pocket to run. In relation to that, Smith proved that his accuracy was not altered when he was forced to throw on the run. More importantly, Smith had a very small handful of stellar throws from the pocket that act as a glimmer of hope.

Despite generally being inaccurate, Smith, like any quarterback, had his moments. For veteran’s, that should be taken lightly, but for a rookie, it should be seen as a base to develop a franchise quarterback upon. For whatever reason, Smith had two impressive throws per game. Now, that is not some sort of scientific calculation, but from my viewing, two was the lucky number. While that is not a big number, he made those few throws count. Oddly, some of such throws were stunning back shoulder throws that exemplified wonderful timing and touch, better than a good amount of current NFL starters. Inside the numbers, Smith’s “rare” throws were just as stunning. Below is one of such throws. He threads the needle and leads his receiver well, allowing for plenty of yards after the catch.

Geno Smith deserves at least one more year to show some development, but as of 2013, he is not a starting caliber quarterback. To be fair, he was a rookie, but even by that standard, he underwhelmed. Smith’s mechanical issues have yet to show improvement since college, nor has his pocket awareness. Add in his generally awful ball placement and Smith has quite a few major flaws. All those flaws, aside from his pocket awareness, could be fixed to some degree by next season, but then again, he may show no improvement. Smith has the upside to be in the 13-17 range (average starter) for NFL quarterbacks, but as of now, he is not near that level.

EJ Manuel (by Nathan Manickavasagam)

When the Buffalo Bills selected EJ Manuel in the first round of last year’s draft, I was shocked. I personally didn’t think he was worth more than a 4th-rounder. To say the least, he surpassed my expectations. Now, that’s not necessarily that good. Starting someone, who I thought was a 4th-rounder,  their rookie year at QB isn’t really the best idea, so I expected him to be completely awful. I honestly expected him to be benched after several games, but he somewhat proved me wrong. I wouldn’t say that he had a good year, but it was definitely better than what I thought he would accomplish. Let’s dig in.

Above is a collection of four games; two from the beginning of Manuel’s games (New England, Carolina) and two near the end (Tampa Bay, Jacksonville). (85/128, 66.4% accuracy)

Above is a collection of the four middle games of Manuel’s eight starts (vs. Baltimore, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, NYJ). (72/100; 72% accuracy)

(Total: 157/228; 68.9%)

Just looking at the charts above, you can tell that EJ Manuel didn’t throw down the field very much. A majority of his passes were within 10 yards of the LOS(Line of scrimmage). I would give credit to their offensive coordinator for implementing a simple offense. This allowed a mediocre QB to move the chains, and it took advantage of the skill position players it had.

Contrary to what most probably believe, the deep ball isn’t the hardest throw a young QB has to make, it’s actually fairly simple. Just lob it up. The hardest throws for a young QB to make are the intermediate throws, generally from 10 yards or more. By keeping most of the throws either within 10 yards of the LOS or 20+ yards down the field, you can actually achieve a decent offense. When you pair that with several athletic receivers and a very good run-game, you’ve got a chance.

The Bills have several talented receivers who excel with the ball in their hands. The more passes you get to them, the more yards you get. The shorter the passes, the higher the completion percentage. This offense relies on receivers who can make something happen with say, a 5 yard slant. However, they also have speedy receivers who can get open down the field. They basically just asked EJ Manuel to throw it up, and let Marquise Goodwin go get it.(He runs an official 4.27 40 yard dash)

When you factor in a very productive run game, you get a pretty efficient offense. CJ Spiller averaged 4.6 YPC, while Fred Jackson averaged 4.3. While these seem like average numbers, they combined for 1800+ yards, and CJ Spiller was actually hurt for a few games. Of the teams I’ve watched so far, they probably have the highest percentage of runs on 3rd down.

All of these things kept their offense moving. Now, let’s look at some plays.

This play left me legitimately confused. Fred Jackson releases out of the backfield, then proceeds to cross the field. Only a few yards away from Manuel, and fairly open, it seems like an easy completion. Then somehow, Manuel manages to miss him completely. It’s kind of hard to see, but the placement on this ball was just lazy. It’s as if Manuel just gave up mid release.

On to the positive side, Manuel uses his athleticism to buy him a little more time to throw. Because of this, he’s able to find his receiver in the end zone for a really nice touchdown.

Here’s an example of what I was talking about earlier. Manuel knows that Goodwin has the speed to beat his corner, so he just lobs it up, and let’s Goodwin go get it. This results in an easy touchdown, and is yet another example of a team being able to score with a mediocre QB.

I’m personally not a fan of EJ Manuel, but based on this year’s draft, I would say the Bills are going to be building around him. While I don’t necessarily support that decision, the way they’ve gone about their decision has been very good. Sammy Watkins and all of the OL that they drafted will go a long way to keeping this offense rolling.