NFL Quarterback Passing Charts: AFC North

By Derrik Klassen on Thursday, April 10th 2014
NFL Quarterback Passing Charts: AFC North

Joe Flacco (by Nathan Manickavasagam) 

Joe Flacco had big expectations coming into this year. Coming off of a Super Bowl win, and becoming the highest-paid QB ever in the NFL, he didn’t reach those expectations. Flacco’s season was full of misfires and plenty of throws that left you thinking “What the heck was that?” 

One play, you’d see the Joe Flacco that won a Super Bowl. He had his moments where you really believed he was worth that massive contract, but then he would throw an interception the next play. Inconsistent would be the best word to describe his season, but even that may be an understatement.

Above is a collection of the four middle games of Flacco’s eight starts (vs Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Chicago). (96/137, 70.1%)

 

Above is a collection of four early/late games of Flacco’s eight starts (vs Broncos, Browns, Lions, Bengals). (117/170, 68.8%)

(Total: 213/307; 69.4%)

There is a misconception out there that Joe Flacco is a good downfield passer. While he’s not terrible, he’s not that good either. He’s somewhere between okay and average. He does have the arm to throw a good deep ball, but often times he under throws his receivers, which is concerning.

Now, Flacco was under a lot of pressure. His O-line wasn’t very good and the stats on the chart don’t do justice to the number of times where he was truly rushed to make a last-second throw.

When Flacco wasn’t getting distracted by having to avoid several rushers per snap, he was actually quite good. In fact, when he gets going, he gets GOING. There were multiple six-plus completion streaks and he looked great. But, once the defense started getting in his face, his accuracy dropped a lot.

 

Here’s one play where Flacco actually has time to make a good throw, and man, it was a beauty.

If I only showed you that play, you’d think Flacco had an amazing season, but he didn’t. 

Now, if the Ravens could somehow reduce those head-scratcher moments, and keep Flacco in his groove...queue the next paragraph.

The Ravens have brought in Gary Kubiak as their Offensive Coordinator for the 2014-2015 season and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens showed vast improvement. Flacco is pegged as a vertical passer, when really, his strength is rhythmic, short to intermediate passes. If you can get Flacco in a groove, like he was during the Raven’s Super Bowl run, you’re going to win some games.

Even though I’m a Chiefs fan, I’m excited to see Joe Flacco play next year. Now that he’s paired with Kubiak,  I expect him to show lots of improvement and it wouldn’t surprise me if Kubiak’s rhythmic offense, along with some help in the offseason, helped return the Ravens to their status of AFC champions.

 

Andy Dalton (by Derrik Klassen)

The biggest question hovering around Andy Dalton is whether or not he is “quarterback purgatory.” As of now, he is, but to be fair, the 2013 season was only his third year in the NFL and he has room to grow.

Unfortunately, he has shown little growth since being a rookie in this league, which raises the concern if he will ever make huge strides. But for now, let’s take a look at his 2013 season:

Above is a collection of four of Dalton’s games: Two from the first quarter of the season (Chicago and Browns), as well as two from the latter quarter of the season (Vikings and Ravens).

(101/149; 67.8%)

 

In this chart, four of the games from the middle of the season were charted (vs Detroit, New York Jets, Miami, Baltimore) (108/150; 72%)

(Total: 209/299; 69.9%)

From roughly the 20 to 35 yard range, there is an abundance of throws, and in turn, an abundance of incompletes, especially in the first chart.. A majority of those throws were Dalton looking strictly for AJ Green or, in some cases, Marvin Jones.

Now, the idea of doing so is not entirely wrong. AJ Green, as well as Marvin Jones, are spectacular receivers and Dalton has flashed the ability to put the ball in a well enough spot for either of them to make a play.

 

Above, Green has inside positioning on Bears cornerback Charles Tillman. Seeing that, Dalton slings it out in front of Green, as well as placing it to his left side, allowing him to take advantage of the inside positioning. Dalton needs to be able to do this more often, but the ability is there.

 

Conversely, Dalton often under-throws such passes. Below, he tries to force a pass to Marvin Jones, who is being blanketed by the Ravens Corey Graham. Had Dalton led Jones farther down the sideline, he’d have had a much better chance on the ball. Instead, it is underthrown and Graham comes away with an interception.

The issue is that Dalton does not have a strong enough arm to hit those deeper passes quickly, yet does not show the ability to manipulate defenders and keep them away from his intended target.

At the intermediate of the field, his arm strength issue is less hindering, but there are flashes of inability to throw with enough velocity to fit a window. Likewise, there are situations in which he throws a short drag route, or something of the like, and fails to lead the receiver far enough.

For Dalton, it is more of an inconsistency with being able to compensate for his own lack of strength than him simply being inaccurate. Nonetheless, it is an issue.

Although, for the most part, Dalton is not the type of quarterback to constantly thread the needle, but he is fairly accurate. Certainly accurate enough to be an NFL starter. Even with him, there are flashes of stunning accuracy. As stated before, Dalton’s inconsistent strength compensation will lead to mishaps, but outside of that, a majority of his misses or bad throws were a product of his mental ability. Conversely, that may be scarier from the GM’s standpoint.

Whether it be because Cincinnati’s weapons are so talented or Dalton lacks ability to progress through multiple reads on every play, Dalton throws a lot of one-read passes. Often times, he ends up throwing directly into coverage. Luckily, it is normally contested enough that the pass is simply swatted away, but it also leads to easily avoidable interceptions.

Granted, Dalton is only a third year quarterback, so the inability to constantly run through reads is somewhat acceptable.


Below is an example of Dalton only reading one receiver and firing instantly. The pass was nearly intercepted.

In the pocket, Dalton shows deficiency. Now, that is not to say that his pocket presence is atrocious, but in the midst of pressure, he makes too many panicky decisions. In Dalton’s case the offensive line can not be blamed. It is not a superb line, but it is a solid line. Dalton simply fails to handle pressure at an upper tier level.

Aside from passing, Dalton can be useful in another way. Dalton is an impressive athlete. If he needs to tuck and run, he has the ability to do so. There were even occasions in which he ran read-options, just like his TCU days. Dalton often gets pinned as a “pocket passer,” but in reality, he can do more.

Dalton is not outright awful, nor is he a franchise quarterback. For middling organizations, this would be acceptable, but the Bengals are a few pieces away from a Super Bowl run. The player that Dalton is right now is not good enough to get them that far. 

Although, seeing that he is only 26 years old, there is time left for him to grow and become better than he is. Next season will be crucial. If he shows some sort of improvement, it is likely that he earns a second contract from the Bengals.

Reversely, if he remains the same, Cincinnati may be looking to move on to another option that may be able to take better advantage of the Bengals star studded skill players corps. That being said, he will be in high demand for a team looking for a stop-gap veteran. That, or they still feel as if he can become more than an average quarterback. Regardless, he will find work.

 

Ben Roethlisberger (by Nathan Manickavasagm) 

To be completely honest, Ben Roethlisberger was very disappointing this year. He showed decline despite having Antonio Brown, Jerricho Cotchery, Emmanuel Sanders, and Le'Veon Bell at his disposal. The best way to summarize his year would be "inaccurate". Often times he would restrict the receiver from yards after catch, and left so many yards on the field. Obviously Ben Roethlisberger has his accomplishments, but this year was a major letdown.

If you look at the charts below you'll see that Big Ben was inaccurate pretty much everywhere, all over the field.

Above is a collection of four early/late games of Big Ben’’s eight starts(vs Titans, Chicago, Green Bay, Cleveland).

(89/133; 67%)

 

Above is a collection of the four middle games of Big Ben’s eight starts (vs. Oakland, New England, Buffalo, Detroit). (104/155; 67.1%)

(Total: 193/288; 67%)

I will say this, I was generous at times giving big Ben the benefit of the doubt. Some of his passes, even behind the line of scrimmage, were very inaccurate. That's not a good sign, especially if you look at how bad they are in the 10 to 15 yard range.

One of the biggest red flags to me, is when guys are missing receivers within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage. That tells me that they have an accuracy problem, not just a decision-making problem. While his offensive line definitely did not help him- actually, it was terrible- there's no excuse for missing screens and simple 2 yard outs.

The ball comes out of his hands with a little wobble, and even his bullet passes tend to stray little bit. I do believe that his shoulder injury had a part in this, but it would be unfair to give him an excuse for his poor play down the stretch.

Take a look at some of Ben's throws the restricted yards after catch. The first is a still picture. 

Here’s a simple slant to the WR. The WR has a ton of space and Ben has a lot of area to throw to. Instead of making a good pass and likely getting a large gain, Ben throws behind the receiver and really, really hurts the YAC of the play. Instead of  a possible touchdown, this play gains just 4 yards.

 

Now, let's talk about his positives. Ben's all-around game has declined over the years, so finding a bright spot is a little difficult. One thing that I noticed, is that Ben is actually pretty good throwing to the corner of the end zone (above). He still has a little touch on the ball, but he's not the same guy he used to be.

Hopefully the Steelers decide to invest in some more O-linemen this year. Ben was often troubled by opposing rushers and had to get rid of the ball very quickly, definitely affecting his accuracy. Again, I won't use this as an excuse, but it definitely was a factor.

I believe that the decline in Ben's play has just been a consequence of old age. I believe that the Steelers window is closing, and it would be wise to invest in the future. I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers decided to go for a quarterback in this draft.

I'm not saying that a come back from Big Ben next year isn't possible, but I definitely wouldn't bet on it.

 

Jason Campbell (by Derrik Klassen)

Having Jason Campbell start eight games was not the Browns plan for this season. Originally, Brandon Weeden started the year, but after losing the first two games, he was replaced. Brian Hoyer came in and was playing rather well, but went down with an unfortunate torn ACL after winning both of the games he had fully played. After that, Weeden came back to play, but was again replaced by Jason Campbell. Through Campbell’s eight starts, the Browns only won a single game. Let’s dig into why that is:

Above is a collection of the four middle games of Campbell’s eight starts (vs Cincinnati, New England, Pittsburgh, and Chicago).

(91/151; 60.3% accuracy)

 

Above is a collection of four games; two from the beginning of Campbell’s games (Kansas City/Baltimore) and two near the end (New York Jets/Pittsburgh). (88/135; 65.2% accuracy)

(Total: 179/286; 62.6%)

In total, Campbell was only accurate on 62.6% of his passes. Even then, a fair amount of those passes restricted yards after the catch. On some occasions, the issue was Campbell being too late to pull the trigger. In that case, the receiver was too close to the sideline to create much of anything or he caught it right in front of a defender. On other occasions, Campbell was simply inaccurate, forcing receivers to bend behind their body and slow their stride.

The footwork that Campbell displayed was an issue as well. Despite consistently stepping up into the pocket, he failed to reset correctly after doing so, leading to countless incompletions. Rarely did he have his feet set well enough to deliver a throw on the money.

On a tangent, his pocket movement was porous. With pressure closing in on him, Campbell tended to take backwards steps and fade away from the defender(s). More often than not, this led to Campbell under throwing, completely missing his target, or intentionally throwing away.

Either way, such panicky movements seldom had a positive result. Likewise, Campbell seemed erratic in his pocket movement. There were many instances in which he unnecessarily moved from a clean pocket. If he were to have been effective after doing so, it would not be an issue. For Campbell, that was not the case.

As if Campbell could not get any worse, his vision and decision making was simply awful. Too often he made blatantly poor decisions or failed to see obvious defenders. Below, Campbell tries to throw between two Bengals defenders near the line of scrimmage.

Needless to say, Campbell made a poor decision to force that pass. Unfortunately, such decisions occurred rather often, hence why his accuracy percentage was so low.

Unsurprisingly, Campbell’s deep accuracy has horrid. Passes down the field generally have a low completion rate for any quarterback, but Campbell’s was exceptionally bad.

On throws that traveled at least 20 yards in the air, Campbell had an accuracy rate of 28.1%. With all of his other deficiencies, one would hope Campbell could at least come through to toss a lucky deep pass for a touchdown, but he could not even do that. Below, Campbell forces a poorly placed throw to his intended target.

Everything about Jason Campbell’s 2013 season was atrocious. He flashed glimpses of decency in the Baltimore and New England games, but the remainder of the year was a train wreck. Once again, Campbell proved why he is not a regular starting NFL quarterback.

Realistically, he is not a premier backup either. Campbell is still under contract for next season (as of now), but the Browns are likely to target a quarterback early in this year’s draft.

The young signal caller will take over the starting role, leaving Brian Hoyer, who, as stated previously, played rather well during his short stint, as the backup quarterback. This pushes Campbell down to the third depth chart slot, hopefully keeping him off the field.

 

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