NFL Quarterback Passing Charts: NFC South

By Derrik Klassen on Tuesday, August 26th 2014
NFL Quarterback Passing Charts: NFC South

Cam Newton (by Derrik Klassen)

There is not a single player, let alone quarterback, is more exciting to watch than Cam Newton. Unfortunately, the excitement and running ability that Newton brings to the table is often misconstrued to him being a subpar, or at least ”raw,” passer. Ironically, he is quite the opposite. Newton’s passing development from his final year in college to 2013, his third year in the NFL, is the type of development that coach’s dream of, yet also the type of development that is seldom seen. Instead of being the finicky gunslinger of his youth, Newton has become a mentally sound, precise passer with incredible touch. Though, he continues to left off of “top quarterbacks” lists and has quite simply been written off as a run-first quarterback with a rocket arm. Now, it is time to unveil why that is entirely false.

Above is a collection of four games from the beginning/end of the 2013 season (vs Seattle, Arizona, NYJ, New Orleans). (75/102; 73.5%)

Above is a collection of games from the middle of the 2013 season (vs St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New England). (77/96; 80.2%)

(Total: 152/198; 76.8%)

Newton possesses the caliber of arm strength that only a select few in the NFL possess. Although, more so than the others, like Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler, it looks easy for Newton. The motion does not look elongated or forced, but instead, it is a quick motion that generates incredible torque via upper body rotation. Not only does that allow Newton to throw stronger more easily, but when torque is generated from mechanics as well as the arm, it is much easier to be accurate when throwing because the arm is not being overstressed.

Newton’s incredible velocity allows him to nail passes that, as said before, only a select few can. Now, some of these throws do not look as if that should be the case. For example, many quarterbacks struggle to gauge their velocity on five-yard outs, but for Newton, that is a routine throw that he can drill more times than not. Although, as is well known, Newton’s arm is not the only part of him that seems as if it was created on Madden.

No quarterback in the league has the blend of size and athleticism that Newton does. Of course, Colin Kaepernick is faster, but his body frame is not quite like Newton’s and his lateral ability is nowhere near Newton’s. Newton can stop on a dime, change direction, and continue to run. Though, he has shown that he can use such lateral ability in the pocket to side-step defenders and give himself more time in the pocket. Either way, Newton’s escapability from defenders in the pocket is rare. Below, Newton displays his escapability.

In regards to his build, it makes Newton a viable goal line or short yardage runner. At 6’5” and 245 pounds, Newton is essentially a tight end that can plow his way through the pile for that measly yard or two. Early in his career, Newton abused his athleticism and ran far more often than he should have, but by 2013 (last season), Newton had become the top notch passer that was expected of the No.1 overall pick.

The one aspect of passing that holds Newton back from “elite” status is his progression ability when reading the field. Now, he is still more efficient at going through his reads than most starting quarterbacks, but he still has work to do. The key is consistency.

Newton has shown the ability to run through multiple reads and make a great throw time and time again, but at the same time, he has shown that he is too slow to go from reading a slant to reading the dig (just an example). Newton needs to get down some of these route concepts and engrain them as muscle memory. Considering how well he has progressed since his Auburn days, it is not absurd to expect this to happen soon, but as of 2013, he was not quite “there.”

That being said, Newton is the second most physically talented passer in the NFL behind none other than Aaron Rodgers. Outs, posts, fades, digs; Newton can hit any route and put the ball exactly where it needs to be- and do so with stunning velocity. Some of his throws in 2013 were simply amazing and would be absolutely jaw dropping. Even more impressively, his supporting cast in Carolina was subpar last season.

The offensive line was shaky, the receivers were an average group, and the backs struggled to get going. Despite all of that, Newton stood strong in broken pockets and threw receivers open. In reference to earlier, below is a throw that few, if any, other quarterbacks could hit.


 

To digress to the comment about standing in the pocket, Newton has impeccable pocket presence. Even when the edges cave in and he has no room to step up into the interior, Newton remains calm and delivers a pass, even if that means a checkdown to a running back. If the opportunity to escape presents itself, Newton shows no fear as he evades defenders and escapes the pocket to find a receiver downfield. As a whole, Newton’s pocket presence is among the best of the best in the league.

Newton’s 2013 season, which was the best statistically year he has ever had as a passer, went under the radar. Without a doubt, Newton played like a top five quarterback last season. The development that he showed in 2013 was wonderful and he still has room to grow. Physically, Newton is essentially a Madden “create-a-player” that has become the type of passer one would expect out of such player. As stated, Newton still has room to grow, but he is already one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks and his 2013 season deserves more recognition.

 

Drew Brees (by Nathan Manickavasagam)

Before this project, I considered Brees a top three quarterback (along with Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning). I can not say that he lived up to my expectations, because I honestly expected him to be in that top tier with Rodgers and Manning. That is not really a bad thing, because I would put him in the tier right below them, which is still very good, not to mention he has a Super Bowl ring to vouch for his ability to win it all.

Any team in the NFL would love to have Brees as their quarterback, and he is way above the competency line that you need to pass to be successful in this league. He may not be at the very top, but he is still a great quarterback who has a had a lot of success. The Saints don not need him to be Rodgers or Manning, Brees is good enough as he is right now.

Above is a collection of four games; two from the beginning of Brees’ games (vs Tampa Bay, Miami) and two near the end (vs Carolina, St. Louis). (142/177 80.23%  accuracy)

Above is a collection of the four middle games of Brees’ games (vs. New England, Buffalo, NYJ, Dallas).

(123/146, 84.25% accuracy)

(Total: 265/323; 82%)

There is not anything major to take away from these charts. Brees throws all over the field, and he is generally very good. In the games I watched, he was noticeably good over the middle, but struggled a little bit when throwing to his left. I do not think it isanything major though, it was probably just a coincidence.

Brees has a pretty solid arm. He can gun it when he needs to. However, he sometimes struggles to get enough air under his passes. When this happens, he tries to “bullet” it too much, and it would hit the ground a few yards before reaching his target. This was one of his most noticeable problems. It is not that he lacks the arm strength to get it there, but sometimes he drives the ball too hard and does not let it float enough. This is his biggest mechanical flaw, in my opinion. He is pretty solid moving around the pocket, but when he is forced to move around to make a throw, he loses a lot of accuracy. Here is an example of him trying to force a pass.

Brees’ confidence is a gift and a curse. Most of the time, it allows him to make throws that only top tier quarterbacks can make, but others it leads to an interception. Derrik said it best in his notes “(Brees) Walks on a fine line of confidence and recklessness.” This is probably his biggest flaw, but I do not think there is much he can do to fix it. It is a double edged sword, and I think Brees has accepted that.

What he is now, is what he will always be (in terms of decision making). For the most part, this has been beneficial to him. (He threw for nearly 5200 yards with 39 TDs and only 12 INTs.) If he were to tone his confidence down a little, his TD numbers would regress, but his interceptions probably would as well. You could argue that less interceptionss are better, but current Brees is working for the Saints, and I do not see why they would change it. Here is an example of Brees having a bit too much confidence.

Then there is good Brees. He makes some incredible throws, and he does it pretty often. He is very confident in his accuracy and he will throw into anything, even triple coverage, and sometimes beat it. While his ball placement is somewhat inconsistent, he does make some throws that make up for it, that most other quarterbacks would not even dare to make.

Here, however, is just an example of Brees working his magic over the middle. Not surprisingly, it is to Jimmy Graham. Brees has a lot of confidence in Graham and it is evident when you watch him. A lot of his bad throws are toss-ups to Graham.

As a whole, Brees is a great quarterback. He has good arm strength, good accuracy, good pocket presence, is fairly mobile, and has shown he can lead a team to a Super Bowl. His flaws, although somewhat minor, are his confidence and his ball placement. Mechanically, he sometimes struggles with deciding how much speed to put on the ball, and this leads to incompletions.

Mentally, Brees will throw into an entire team. He does not care how many defenders there are, if he thinks he can complete the pass, he will throw it- no regrets. Like I said earlier, it is a double-edged sword. That is just who he is. When he is "on," he wins Super Bowls. When he is off, he throws interceptions. Although I do not think Brees will make my top three, I do believe he is an awesome quarterback.

I liked a lot of the offseason moves the Saints have made over the past two years, so it would not be shocking for Brees to come out and have a career year. Look for big things from him, yet again.

 

Matt Ryan (by Nathan Manickavagam)

Matt Ryan is someone that I have been rooting for since he entered the league. Coming into this project, I probably would have put him in my top ten. After watching him, I can say with certainty that he has top ten talent. He is solid in all facets of his game, but is not great at a lot of things. This is what scares some people off.

They do not believe that he can win a Super Bowl because he does not have a good arm, is not extremely mobile, is not that accurate, etc, etc. In my opinion, Ryan is easily good enough of a quarterback to win a title, and he gets undeserved hate for not winning it all yet. He is still young, and can definitely get better with time. If I was starting a franchise and could pick from any quarterback in the league, Ryan would probably be in my top 5. Without further ado, let’s begin.

Above is a collection of four games; two from the beginning of Ryan’s games (vs New Orleans, New Enland) and two near the end (vs Green Bay, San Francisco ). (133/173; 76.88% accuracy)

Above is a collection of the four middle games of Ryan’s games (vs. Tampa Bay, Arizona, Carolina, Seattle).

(106/142; 74.65% accuracy)

(Total: 239/315; 75.9%)

Ryan was pretty consistent in the games I watched, but his accuracy did slip a little bit. He had some misfires, and some of them were on easy throws. He seemed mechanically sound, but would just miss, for practically no reason. His footwork was pretty solid so I could not figure out why he was missing. Anyway, Ryan was pretty average in all parts of the field.

I did not see any weaknesses deep, in fact, his deep ball was pretty good (of course, he does have Roddy White and Julio Jones).  Here is a play where Ryan just misfires, for seemingly no reason. It is possible that he overestimated the height of his receiver, but regardless, he needs to reduce the number of these plays.

The problems with him stem from not having great arm strength and throwing into very tight windows. Ryan has a pretty good deep ball, but his arm strength is only a little above average. This is certainly enough to get the job done, but it may be what keeps him from joining that top tier of quarterbacks.

There are just some throws that Ryan physically can not make, that other quarterbacks (Colin Kaepernick, etc) might be able to make.  Here is an example. Ryan tries to force a ball too hard, and the result is a deflection (luckily). If the defender had tipped it in a different direction, it could have easily been an interception.

This isn’t a major issue, but it’s definitely a factor in how good Ryan can become. There’s not much he can do to get better in terms of arm strength, but he can pick which throws he takes better. He makes good decisions, but there are times where he belives he can thread the needle, but doesn’t have the accuracy/strength to get it there in time.

Ryan is actually one of my favorite quarterbacks in the league, as he does almost everything well. He throws a lot great passes and I ca not hope to capture all of them. Below is a great throw over the deep middle (something that I think he does not get enough credit for). He does not make a lot of “wow” throws, but he does make a lot of the throws that count, and that is what you need in a quarterback. He puts it right on the money, and Tony Gonzalez is able to haul it in even with a defender in his face.

And another good throw from Ryan. Harry Douglass (the target) turns around and the ball is right where it needs to be, and despite good coverage, he is able to get a few yards after the catch because of how good the ball placement is.

Overall, Ryan is a solid quarterback. I will admit that I am a little biased towards him, but not enough to completely skew my perception of him. He has shown over his years in the league that he is good, and that he can get better than he already is.

Some people blame him for the Falcons troubles last year, but I think that argument is unwarranted, as Ryan’s play was solid. With an improved offensive line, I expect Ryan to have a better year, and the Falcons will once again be playoff contenders in a very tough division.

 

Mike Glennon (by Derrik Klassen)

Some see a bright future in Glennon, but for the most part, such praise is unwarranted based on his 2013 display. Whereas rookie quarterbacks tend to be generally bad with flashes of the player that warranted a high pick, Glennon was mediocre throughout with few flashes of legit starter ability.

Of course, not much more should be expected from a third round quarterback (in an awful class, no less) being a rookie starter, but Glennon did not show the skill set to be a good starting quarterback in today’s league. With veteran Josh McCown now on the roster, it is unlikely Glennon ever earns another legitimate starting job. But digress to 2013.

Above is a collection of games from Glennon’s 2013 stretch of games (vs Arizona, Philadelphia, San Francisco, New Orleans) (97/147; 66%)

Above is a collection from the middle of Glennon’s 2013 game stretch (vs Seattle, Miami, Atlanta, Detroit).

(63/78; 80.8%)

(Total: 160/225; 71.1%)

Having a top notch pocket presence is a universal trait among the league’s best quarterbacks, and Glennon struggles mightily in that aspect of quarterbacking. His sense for pressure is essentially nonexistent. When he sees pressure, he tends to get antsy and rush a poor throw, or get himself sacked in a situation in which he could have escaped.

Although, if Glennon were to move, which he rarely does, it does not matter much because he is a horrendous athlete. He is a long, awkward strider with poor coordination and general speed. Even simply stepping up into the pocket is too much for Glennon most of the time. There could be six feet of open pocket in front of him and he will remain dormant. Every aspect of Glennon’s pocket ability is subpar.

Glennon’s most notable flaw is the fact that he is a one-speed thrower, like Colin Kaepernick. On the surface, it does not sound like much of an issue, but it often means Glennon puts too much heat on short throws, or throws that require touch over power, and misses his target. Though it does not mean all of his passes are wild, even if Glennon technically throws a catchable ball, he tends to restrict yards after the catch, which is especially problematic for a team like Tampa Bay who had receivers who struggled to get yards after the catch on their own. If Glennon continues to be a one-speed thrower, he will not be able to be anything more than mediocre because he does not have any other great trait to make up for it.

Like many young quarterbacks, Glennon’s footwork is poor. During dropbacks, he has lead feet that make him an incumbent mover, which had a tendency to throw off the timing of certain route concepts. Unfortunately, the trouble do not end when the drop back does. Glennon fails to move around the open areas of the pocket in order to make throws easier for himself. When he does throw, he seldom sets his feet correctly, if at all, and misses his target. If Glennon were to clean up his footwork, there may then be a solid starter in the Napolean Dynomite look-alike.

Lastly, Glennon was arguably the league’s worst deep passer last season. With Vincent Jackson at his disposal, one would assume otherwise, but Glennon often overshot his target and lead the throw out of bounds. He does not even give the receiver a chance at the ball, which is the least one could ask for. Not much is wrong mechanically (at least not anything other than what has been previously mentioned), but Glennon misfires nearly every time. 

As a whole, there is not much to like about Glennon. Even in regards to raw tools, Glennon’s arm is average, his frame is rather slight, and he moves as if he is in quicksand. On top of that, his footwork is subpar and he is generally a mediocre passer in regards to ball placement. At best, Glennon is the “bad” Joe Flacco, which is not a good player by any means. It would be in the best interest of the Buccaneers to move on entirely.

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