This is the Battle of the Bay Area. These two teams and fan bases do not like each other and it shows whenever they meet. The 49ers will be on the road and are still favored by more than a touchdown, even after their pitiful showing last week against the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers were embarrassed at home and will look to take out their frustration on the Raiders while also straightening out their offensive woes for their rematch next week against the Seahawks. The Raiders were also embarrassed last week when the St. Louis Rams beat them 52-0. Here’s a preview of the 49ers vs. Raiders matchup:
Will Colin Kaepernick Have A Bounce Back Game?
The 49ers offense had a horrible game last week against the Seahawks. That terrible performance started and ended with quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick completed only 16 of 29 passes for 121 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions (both to Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman). He posted his second worst PFF (subscription) grade of the season with a -6.2.
This week he will be facing a challenge not quite as difficult as the Seahawks’ defense. This week he will be throwing against the team with the sixth worst PFF pass coverage grade in the league. They also have the eighth worst PFF run defense grade, which means there’s a good chance running backs Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde have success on the ground to open up the passing game more for Kaepernick. I don’t expect Kaepernick to have a 400-yard and five touchdown sort of game on Sunday, but I do expect him to have one of his better games of the year.
Joe Staley vs. Khalil Mack
Out of all the offensive linemen on the 49ers, left tackle Joe Staley has had the best year and it’s not even close. As head coach Jim Harbaugh would say, he’s been a stalwart on the offensive line. On the Raiders defense their best player has been outside linebacker Khalil Mack and that isn’t even close either. Mack has an overall PFF grade of 30.8 on the season, which is more than double anyone else on their defense. The most impressive part of his game has been his run defense followed closely by his ability to get to the quarterback. While he only has one sack on the season, he has eight quarterback hits and 30 quarterback hurries (the most on the team).
Mack lines up on both sides of the field but spends over 60% of his snaps on the right side of the field lining up across from teams’ left tackle. So he’ll most likely be meeting Staley more often than not on Sunday. When lining up on the right he’s gotten his only sack, five of his quarterback hits, and 22 of his quarterback hurries. Out of all qualifying 3-4 outside linebackers he ranks first in run stop percentage.
Joe Staley is one of the premier left tackles in the game (although this season is considered a down year by his standards). In 452 passing plays, Staley has only allowed four sacks, three quarterback hits, 18 quarterback hurries. In the run game the 49ers have had the most success running to the left. If the Raiders want to win this game, it might come down to Staley vs. Mack and who can win that matchup.
Still Looking For Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis
49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis have had terrible seasons so far. Crabtree has a 51 receptions for 577 yards and four touchdowns. He is the 49ers’ number one receiver and those are his stats through 12 games. His drop rate is 15% this season, dropping nine out of 60 catchable balls. Davis’ stats have been worse. Davis has 23 receptions for 210 yards and two touchdowns. Davis has missed about two and a half games but has been basically absent in the games he’s actually been in.
The 49ers need both of these players to step their performances up in the next four weeks if they want to make a push for the playoffs and eventually a push to the Super Bowl. Against the Raiders both Crabtree and Davis will have favorable matchups and should be able to get open consistently. If neither one is able to perform well in this game I don’t think they’ll be able to do it for the rest of the season.