Broncos at Patriots

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady meet head-to-head for the 13th time this coming Sunday at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.  The fact that Brady has won more often than not when the two future hall of fame quarterbacks square off is irrelevant.  What is relevant is that Manning and his new Bronco teammates enter the game coming off a 37-6 throttling of Oakland last week at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, while the Patriots try to continue the downhill momentum gained during a 4th quarter that saw them outscore Buffalo 31-7 on New England’s way to a 52-28 win.

For as lopsided as last week’s scores were, both Denver and New England enter the game with a 2-2 record.  It may very well be the most anticipated, high octane showdown between .500 teams in history.  After struggling to adjust to a new offense and receiving core in the season’s first three weeks, Manning looked outstanding against the Raiders, going 30-of-38 for 338 yards and three touchdowns.  Brady produced eerily similar numbers throwing for 340 yards and three scores of this own. 

Make no mistake, however.  Both teams feature an extremely balanced offensive attack.  New England featured two 100-yard rushers on Sunday (Brandon Bolden and Stevan Ridley), while Willis McGahee ran for 112 yards on 19 carries for the Broncos.  It seems unlikely that either team will hold a sizable lead early, but if one does (forcing the other to play a one dimensional game) it will create a tremendous advantage.  

It sounds horribly cliché, but the key to this game lies in the turnover battle.  Both defenses have been solid at times and less than spectacular at others.  However, the Patriots have forced 11 turnovers compared to the Broncos’ three.  Since both offenses are expected to have success moving the ball, giveaways and takeaways will prove critical.  It’s also worth noting that there is precipitation expected (possibly heavy) sometime during Sunday’s game.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Broncos 27    
This game projects to be very entertaining.  Both offenses feature multiple weapons.  Neither defense is particularly strong, nor are they so inept that one can’t figure into the outcome.  A Broncos win wouldn’t be a shocker, but home field will prove to be the difference. 

Ravens at Chiefs

When the season began, this week five match up was circled on many calendars.  The Ravens, who were a Billy Cundiff 32-yard field goal miss from pushing the AFC championship game into overtime, opposite the newly healthy, and fully stocked, Chiefs.  The game has certainly lost some luster, as Kansas City has come out of the gates at 1-3, their only win requiring an unlikely comeback against the still-winless Saints.  Further troubling for the folks at Arrowhead is the fact that Baltimore has the look of a contending team once again. 

This one may not be as lopsided as some assume, but the Chiefs certainly have their work cut out for them.  While the Ravens do feature an above average defense that has performed very well against the run (3.2 yards per carry, good for 3rd best in the league), they have allowed a fair number of points, ranking just 11th in scoring defense.  Granted, Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel has been atrocious thus far, but Kansas City features a more than formidable rushing attack (5.6 yards per carry, tops in the NFL).  Jamaal Charles was outstanding two weeks ago in New Orleans and, had he not lost two fumbles last week, would have had a strong showing opposite the Chargers. 

Unfortunately for the Chiefs, unless Charles and the running game are able to get going, the Chiefs don’t match up well.  With Joe Flacco and Ray Rice, Baltimore has strong balance offensively, while Kansas City has shown very little defensively early in the season.  Granted, some of the league’s second-worst 136 points surrendered are a result of turnovers that have allowed opposing offenses to play on a short field, but the Chiefs still rank in the lower third in the NFL in both yards per game and yards per play. 

Prediction: Ravens 37, Chiefs 17
The Chiefs defense has struggled through the first quarter of the season and a match up against the well-balanced Ravens offense is not the cure.  Even if Kansas City is able to run the ball effectively, Cassel isn’t a strong enough passer to make a substantial impact. 

 

Chargers at Saints

In another game that received some pre-season notoriety, but doesn’t look to be as compelling as expected, Drew Brees takes on his original team for just the second time since leaving San Diego following the 2005 season.  Though his departure has worked out very well for Brees, the 2012 season doesn’t appear destined for inclusion in the career highlight reel of the twelfth year quarterback. 

While the Saints have started the season a very disappointing 0-4, statements of the Chargers demise appear to be greatly overstated.  Philip Rivers is bouncing back from his worst season as a starter in 2011 with a strong 2012 in staking San Diego an AFC West leading 3-1 record. 

Despite the winless start, New Orleans still features a potent offense (top third of the league in points scored and total yards per game) that will likely present a challenge for an opportunistic, but far from shut-down, San Diego defense.  Another former Charger, running back Darren Sproles, could play a major role in this game, as the Saints will likely have to play shoot out to have a shot, given their inability to slow opposing offenses. 

New Orleans has lost two tightly contested games in a row: last week at Green Bay and the week prior at home against the Chiefs.  While the Chargers rebounded from a week three pounding at home against Atlanta with a victory at Kansas City, without five first half turnovers by the Chiefs, the game would have much more competitive than it really was.  All that to say, the Saints haven't been playing particularly bad as of late, while the Chargers haven’t been as dominating as the scoreboard might indicate. 

Prediction: Saints 24, Chargers 21
New Orleans is much more talented than a conventional 0-4 team, while the Chargers haven’t been quite as dominant as their 3-1 record implies.  This prediction is based more on gut feel and intuition than any analytical point.  The Saints won’t continue losing forever, and this weekend, against the team that spurned Drew Brees and his injured shoulder following the 2005 season, seems like a good time for New Orleans to record a “W.”