This Week 5 game is a match up two teams with every intention of making the playoffs this year. The Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts are very different stylistically, which should make for an exciting game. Here is a preview of the Week 5 AFC matchup:
Ravens’ Front Seven vs. Colts’ Offensive Line
The Ravens’ front seven has been performing particularly well so far this season in both stopping the run and rushing the passer. The likes of Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, Brandon Williams, Haloti Ngata, and DeAngelo Tyson have been very good against the run while they’ve gotten a great pass rush from Suggs, Pernell McPhee, Elvis Dumervil, Mosely, and Ngata. This front seven is extremely difficult to block in both the run and the pass. They have built their front seven with players who are versatile and can do just about everything.
On the other side the Colts’ offensive line is a lot better than people give them credit for. Their run blocking has been pretty average so far this season but their pass blocking has been, according to PFF (subscription), the best in the league so far. The Ravens’ front seven, having the second best pass rush in the NFL, going up against the Colts’ offensive line, having the best pass protection in the NFL, will be an extremely important matchup considering the Colts have only ran the ball just over 100 times this season.
Steve Smith vs. Vontae Davis
Steve Smith has been by far the best wide receiver for the Ravens and has been the favorite target for quarterback Joe Flacco. On Sunday he’ll be matched up against the Colts’ best cornerback Vontae Davis. Smith is coming off of a huge game against his former team the Carolina Panthers, which must have been an emotionally draining game for Smith. I expect Smith to come out flat on Sunday because of last week’s game.
Even if Smith doesn’t come out flat, he’s going to have his work cut out for him going up against Davis. Davis is a very good cornerback. Out of all qualifying cornerbacks, quarterbacks have the lowest quarterback rating when targeting Davis in coverage. That quarterback rating is a staggering 22.6. With Smith likely coming out at least a little flat, I expect Davis to win this matchup on Sunday.
Matt Elam vs. Reggie Wayne
The Ravens’ defense is a very strong and underrated unit. However, their one weak point is their secondary. Their secondary is by far the worst aspect of their defense and when you’re going up against Andrew Luck, that’s not a particularly good weakness to have.
In one player in their secondary that might worry me the most is safety Matt Elam. He’s been lining up in the slot more than anyone else in their secondary and has allowed quarterbacks a quarterback rating of 110.2 when targeting him in slot coverage. Needless to say, that isn’t good. And who will Elam most likely be covering in the slot on Sunday? None other than the ageless Reggie Wayne. When throwing to Wayne, quarterback Andrew Luck has a quarterback rating of 112.4. I see this as a matchup that Luck and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will look to exploit early and often.
Although the Ravens’ front seven has the advantage in the trenches over the Colts’ offensive line, I think the Colts win most of the other matchups. The Ravens’ offense won’t be able to get too much against the Colts and Luck will get just enough time to be able to pick apart the Ravens’ secondary. I expect the Colts to win a close one by about a field goal.