Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Tonight’s game between two vastly improved teams in an dramatically improved division should be pretty darn interesting. Arizona comes into St. Louis as one of just three undefeated teams remaining in the National Football League. They have done so with some stellar defense, late-game magic, and a tad of luck.
Meanwhile, St. Louis is coming off a solid victory over the division-rival Seattle Seahawks. At 2-2, the Rams have matched their entire win total from last season. A lot of this has to do with mistake free ball from Sam Bradford and a vastly improved defense.
Something has to give here.
Arizona doesn’t seem to matchup well against the Rams defense. They are not going to be able to find seems on the outside with the tandem of Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins currently playing at a high level on the outside for St. Louis.
Instead, Arizona will have to go with somewhat of a ground-and-pound mentality. This could work considering St. Louis is yielding 135 rushing yards per game this season. However, Arizona will be without Beanie Wells, who was placed on Injured Reserve this week.
If Arizona is stifled with Ryan Williams in the run game, they are going to have a hard time protecting Kevin Kolb against the likes of Robert Quinn and Chris Long at the line of scrimmage. A telling stat here will be how much Kolb actually passes the ball.
On the other hand, I just don’t envision St. Louis being able to do too much against a solid Cardinals’ defense. Despite struggling against the Miami Dolphins last week, this unit has been one of the best in the entire NFL this season. Additionally, St. Louis hasn’t really figured it out on the offensive side of the ball yet.
Expect a low scoring affair between two pedestrian offenses and two solid defenses. Don’t be too surprised if St. Louis hands Arizona their first loss of the season.
Fantasy Impact
Not much to see here. As I noted in an article earlier today, NFC West offenses going up against NFC West defenses just doesn’t seem to be all that fair at this point in the season. I don’t envision either top fantasy performer from each team, Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona and Steven Jackson with the Rams, being able to do too much in this game.
If you had to go with a sleeper here, I would say Ryan Williams is your best bet. He is now Arizona’s primary running back and is going up against a defense that has yielded 135 rushing yards per game this season. Larry Fitzgerald is an “every-week” starter, but he might not provide WR1 numbers tonight.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Seattle possesses a horrible 5-13 record under Pete Carroll on the ride. Honestly, it is like they are a completely different team away from the friendly confines of the Pacific Northwest. Carolina, on the other hand, is coming off a disastrous late-game collapse against the Atlanta Falcons on the road.
Considering how the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers are playing in the NFC West, Seattle really needs this game to keep tabs. Meanwhile, Carolina sits three games behind the NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons through the first four games of the season.
Needless to say, this is as much of a must win game for either team that you will get at this point in the season.
Seattle’s top-ranked defense will get another difficult test after going up against both the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys thus far in 2012. The dynamic here, however, are much different. They are not facing a true pocket passer in the form of Cam Newton. Instead, Seattle is going to have to game plan much differently than they have had to in the first four game.
One major matchup to watch here is the upfield attack mode of Seattle’s front four. If the likes of Chris Clemons, Red Bryant and Bruce Irvin aren’t careful, they are going to leave gaping holes in the run game along the middle of the field. They need to understand that Newton can take off and run with the ball when the pocket collapses. Moreover, K.J. Wright and the Hawks linebacker corp need to be on target and in position between the hashes.
As it relates to Newton actually finding opening seams in Seattle’s secondary, good luck with that. As I have mentioned countless times, the Seahawks boast three Pro Bowl defensive backs from a season ago. They are also giving up just an average of 213 yards through the air this season.
Seattle’s offense is in train-wreck mode at this point in the season. They have recorded 33 first downs and just over 530 yards in the last two games combined. Russell Wilson had the worst outing of his rookie season against St. Louis last week, throwing three interceptions.
Pete Carroll and company are going to go with the ground-and-pound game here. Marshawn Lynch leads the NFL in rushing yards through four weeks and should touch the ball 25-plus times.
At this point it is just hard for me to get past the point that Seattle has won just five of their 18 road games under Carroll through two-plus seasons.
Fantasy Impact
Same ole, same ole when it comes to the NFC West. Don’t expect Cam Newton to be a viable QB1 option this week and definitely don’t be looking for a solid game from Steve Smith on the outside.
The one fantasy option that should be able to put solid numbers is the aforementioned Lynch. He runs tough, he breaks a ton of tackles and can produce against some of the very best run defenses in the NFL. On that note, Carolina has yielded an average of 140 rush yards per game this season against lackluster running teams.
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers
On paper this appears to be a tremendous mismatch. San Francisco is coming off a 34-0 domination over the New York Jets, while Buffalo yielded 45 second-half points against the New England Patriots last week.
That might just be on paper. The last time San Francisco took on what was supposed to be a vastly inferior product they laid a complete egg against the Minnesota Vikings. I don’t expect the same thing to happen here.
Buffalo’s strength is in the run game, but both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are banged up. Meanwhile, they are going up against the one truly dominating run defenses in the NFL. It also doesn’t help that two Bills’ starters along the offensive line, Cordy Glenn and Kraig Urbik are not going to play in this one.
If San Francisco forces Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills’ offense to throw the ball a great deal, this game could get out of hand relatively quickly. San Francisco is yielding less than 300 total yards per game and Fitzpatrick is one of the most interception-prone quarterbacks in the NFL this season....Hell, over the last few seasons. With a hawkish secondary, the 49ers will definitely take advantage of this if the game is put into the hands of Buffalo’s quarterback.
The 49ers offense has struggled to an extent in each of the last two games after looking solid against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. It will be interesting to see how they fair against a surprisingly weak Bills defense. Buffalo yielded a whopping 247 yards on the ground to the New England Patriots last week. This isn’t a good sign considering they are going up against the No. 3 overall rush offense in the NFL.
I don’t expect much of a game here.
Fantasy Outlook
As I have stated before, it makes little sense to start any opposing running back against the 49ers’ defense....Just don’t do it. That being said, Stevie Johnson could get a lot of targets and make some plays on the outside against Carlos Rogers. He is definitely WR2 material here.
On the other side of the ball, go with Frank Gore and run with him. Buffalo’s rush defense is poor at best and Gore has been one of the most productive fantasy running backs this season. Additionally, Vernon Davis should have a solid game against a lackluster set of Bills’ cover safeties. Think about going with the No. 1 overall fantasy tight end.
Another option is Mario Manningham as a FLEX type of player. He has become an important part of the 49ers’ offense and is on pace to accumulate about 800 total yards. As I mentioned in this article Wednesday, it seems Manningham fits better in San Francisco than he did with the New York Giants.