Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
This Monday night match-up between the AFC West leading Chargers (3-2) and the second place Broncos (2-3) is easily the most important the division has seen in this young season. Though Denver has started slowly, a win over San Diego will give the Broncos a .500 record overall and a 2-0 mark within the division following a tough front-loaded schedule that has seen games against the likes of Atlanta, Houston and New England. A Chargers win would give San Diego a two game lead in the division and a leg up in the head-to-head battle that could very well figure into who ends up taking the AFC West title.
Five weeks into the season, these two teams are remarkably similar in several different facets. The Broncos have posted slightly better numbers offensively, while the same can be said of the Chargers defensively. The most glaring difference between the two, and probably the best explanation for Denver’s losing record, is turnover differential. San Diego is tied for 11th in the NFL with a Plus-two turnover margin, while the Broncos are 29th in the league at a minus-six.
While Denver has averaged 27 points per game thus far, the figure is a little misleading, as they have scored just 15 per game in the first three quarters. In the Broncos three losses, they have scored a total of 35 points in the final quarter while playing come-from-behind in the face of a large deficit. Even so, Peyton Manning has been very impressive in his last three games, throwing for more than 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns against no interceptions.
San Diego’s pass defense is ranked 20th in the league, giving up 260 yards per game, so look for the Broncos to be able to move the ball effectively via the air. Whether a less than consistent Denver rushing attack will allow the Broncos the luxury of balance against a Charger defense that ranks fifth in the NFL against the run remains to be seen.
The Bronco' run defense has also been inconsistent, getting gauged for 251 yards on the ground last week against New England after limiting Darren McFadden to 34 the week prior. A middle-of-the-pack rushing attack from San Diego (16th in both yards per carry and yards per game) will provide a huge boost to the offense if it can get rolling and allow quarterback Philip Rivers to utilize play action.
If the Broncos hope to gain a critical win, they will have to protect the football against an opportunistic defense. Mistakes have plagued Denver in their three losses and if they aren’t able to break the pattern of carelessness when it comes to ball security, it may very well put them in an early season hole too deep to dig out of.
Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons
The 5-0 Falcons play their fourth and final game against AFC West competition this week in a home contest against the 1-3 Raiders. Atlanta fought off a late charge by the Broncos, to go along with severe beatings of the Chiefs and Chargers, which is bad news for what could be the worst team in the division in Oakland.
The Raiders offense has proven inept through the team’s first four games, ranking at or near the bottom of the league in points per game, rushing yards per game, and yards per carry. They are also ranked 30th in the league in points allowed per game and have produced just three sacks against opposing quarterbacks. Early deficits in several games have forced the Raiders to abandon what is probably their strongest offensive option in running back Darren McFadden. Quarterback Carson Palmer looks disinterested and has struggled.
The Falcons aren’t overly impressive in a number of statistical categories, but they are at or near the top in the ones that really matter (sixth in points per game and tied for first in turnover margin at plus-10). Matt Ryan has been outstanding thus far, passing for over 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns. A dinged up Raiders secondary doesn’t figure to slow Ryan or his extraordinary and multiple receiving threats. The one potential advantage for Oakland is the fact that they are coming off a bye week, so they should be well rested and well prepared. That being said, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where this game doesn’t end in a lopsided win for Atlanta.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kansas City ranks fourth in the NFL in total offense, second in rush offense, and second in yards per carry. However, they rank just 25th in points per game. The reason for the disparity is easy to pinpoint: the Chiefs are dead last in the league in turnover margin at minus-15 (to put this in context, the second worst figure is minus-eight). In the middle of the turnover fray is quarterback Matt Cassel who has thrown just five touchdowns against nine interceptions and features the next-to-worst quarterback rating among NFL starters.
It’s a safe bet that Cassel won’t be an issue for the Chiefs this weekend, however, because he is out with an injury, giving way to back up Brady Quinn who is just 3-6 in his career as a starter. The NFL’s leading rusher, Jamaal Charles, spearheads a Kansas City rushing attack that will try to establish itself against a stiff Tampa Bay run defense.
Working in the Chiefs favor is the fact that outside their strong run D, the Bucs are pretty poor in every other area. They don’t move the ball particularly well on offense, nor do they pressure the quarterback or slow anyone’s passing attack. The Kansas City defense, while in the lower half of the league in a number of statistical categories, had a good showing last Sunday in a 9-6 loss against Baltimore, preventing the Ravens from getting into the end zone.
As unimpressive as the Chiefs have been early on, a win over Tampa Bay, coupled with a Denver win over San Diego on Monday, would put the Chiefs just one game out in the AFC West. Furthermore, this game appears to be very winnable for Kansas City. Will they benefit from the absence of their error-prone quarterback, or will Brady Quinn prove just as incapable?