First off, let’s start with the definition of “overvalued.” Merriam-Webster says that it means, “to assign an excessive or fictitious value to.” Using that, we can come up with a list pretty easily of players who are generally overvalued going into your fantasy football drafts and seasons. These players don’t necessarily need to be avoided, just use buyer-beware when drafting them where they seem to be going based on ADP.
Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons
Currently, based on eDraft’s mock draft tool, White has an average draft position of 45, making him a low end fourth-rounder. That high of a pick for a guy who is entering his 10th season in the league, and going to be 33 years old might not seem totally crazy. But, if you look at his numbers, it is.
His touchdown receptions have steadily fallen every year since 2009. His receptions per year have also dropped considerably every season since 2011. What was 2011 you ask? Just the year some guy named Julio Jones joined the squad. With Julio ready to make a major step this season after an injury-riddled 2013, White could take a backseat in the passing game. And by backseat, I mean in like the third-row stow-and-go section. White is still very draftable as a WR2 or Flex, but not in the fourth round. Take someone like Michael Floyd instead.
Wes Welker, Denver Broncos
Next to Merriam-Webster’s definition of “overvalued” sits a picture of this guy, Mr. Wes Welker. Take a look at the definition again, “giving fictitious value to.” That is precisely what people are doing with Welker. They are still drafting him based on what he did back in New England, and not looking at the facts. He too, is entering his 10th season at age 33.
Since 2011, his receptions, yards, yards per reception, receptions per game, and yards per game have gone down every single year. In a season where Peyton Manning completed 450 passes for over 5,400 yards, Welker only had 73 catches for 778 yards. And think about this: Will the Broncos be better offensively? No. Will they match what they did last season? No. So where does that leave Welker, who had concussion problems year? Not in the fourth round, that’s for sure. How about someone like DeSean Jackson as a replacement?
Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
Same theme as Welker here. People are drafting him based on what he used to do. And, they’re actually drafting him higher than both Welker and White, with an ADP of 37. Do they realize that the guy throwing Johnson is Ryan Fitzpatrick?
In Fitzpatrick’s best pro season, 2011, he had 353 completions and threw for 3,800 yards. His number one receiver that year, Steve Johnson had only 1,004 yards and seven scores. Andre is better than Stevie, clearly, but the point remains, Fitzpatrick is pretty bad. Instead of drafting him with a very high fourth-round pick, take someone that has a good quarterback in place, like Keenan Allen.