All fantasy owners have a tendency to jump on running backs as quick as possible.
It’s a scarce position, and has been top-heavy for the past several years. But because of that, many running backs tend to be overvalued in fantasy football.
Owners will draft them too early out of fear of missing out on a top 20 running back, but they’ll end up getting the scoring by the end of the season of someone they could have waited another round or two on.
These are three running backs who are being overvalued (via average draft position) in drafts currently, and why there are better options out there.
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP (per FantasyPros): 12 RB, 24 overall
Although Charles Sims is lost for most of the season with an ankle injury, that still doesn’t give Martin the go-ahead to be a second-round pick in 12-team leagues.
With Mike James and Bobby Rainey still on the roster, Martin likely won’t get any more than 65 percent of the carries in Tampa Bay, yet he’s being drafted higher than guys like Alfred Morris (the 14th most consistent fantasy back last season, according to our premium stats) and Andre Ellington, who will end up getting far more carries.
We don’t know that Martin will be like coming off his season-long injury from last season, and in the six games he played in before his injury, he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and had one touchdown, which came in Week 1.
In his breakout year that propelled him in to the first round of drafts last season, his end-of-year numbers looked good, but most of his fantasy points came in a three-game stretch between Weeks 7 and 9, when he scored six touchdowns and ran for 471 yards.
After that stretch, he scored four touchdowns and had four games of 60 yards or less — finishing the year as only the 17th most consistent back, per our premium stats (paid subscription required).
Martin won’t be more than a low-end No. 2 running back this year.
C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
ADP (per FantasyPros): 17 RB, 38 overall
Do fantasy owners still know that Fred Jackson still plays in the league? And that he just signed an extension? Jackson is going 60 spots lower than Spiller, yet Jackson was the 10th best fantasy running back last season, and Spiller finished 27th in total fantasy points.
Jackson and Spiller carried the ball basically the same number of times last season, per our premium stats, and I expect that trend to continue this season.
C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson Stats (2010-13) | Player | Carries | Yards | YPC | TDs | Rec. | Rec. Yds. | Rec. TDs |
| C.J. Spiller | 590 | 3,021 | 5.1 | 12 | 139 | 1,070 | 5 |
| Fred Jackson | 713 | 3,188 | 4.47 | 23 | 151 | 1,261 | 4 |
Despite being 33, Jackson told ProFootballTalk that he’s “hungry and motivated” this season, while Spiller has been rumored to be involved in a number of trades.
Spiller has just 12 touchdowns over the course of his four seasons in the league. During that same span, Jackson has 23.
I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if Spiller out-scores Jackson this season, but it won’t be by a large enough margin to support Spiller being drafted in the late third round of leagues and Jackson going in the eighth or ninth rounds.
Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
ADP (per FantasyPros): 28 RB, 70 overall
Is Richardson a low-risk pick in the sixth round? Probably. But I would much rather have Joique Bell, who’s going just one pick ahead of him and Stevan Ridley (six picks behind Richardson).
Say what you want about his workload, and the extra time to learn the playbook, but Richardson still looks slow.
After he was acquired by the Colts last season, the best day he had rushing was against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4 when he ran for 60 yards and a touchdown. After that, he had one game when he ran for two yards, and had five games when he averaged less than three yards per carry.
And things don’t seem to be looking up. In Week 1 of the preseason against the New York Giants, who have a generally awful defense, Richardson averaged 2.3 yards per carry on nine touches — a reasonable number of carries to see a decent sample size.
In Week 2 of the preseason against the New York Jets, who have a better front seven, he averaged 2.6 yards per carry.
There’s not much else in the backfield to challenge Richardson, so he will be starting as long as he’s healthy, but I’m staying as far away from Richardson as possible this season, because it doesn’t seem as if his production is going to improve.