Prepare yourself for a tale of opposites when Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos square off against the Oakland Raiders on Thursday Night Football.
This applies to both real and fantasy life.
Manning recovered from potential career-ending neck injuries and once again occupies his familiar perch atop NFL quarterback ranking. His QBR is a league-best 81.1, while his passer efficiency rating sits at No. 2—and based only on semantics (otherwise known as an irrelevant 0.4 decimal reading).
The Raiders, meanwhile, have not recovered from a potential franchise-ruining Super Bowl beat-down in 2002. They remain mired in NFL futility at 3-9 without any encouraging prospects for the near future.
And that future pertains most immediately to the Week 14 matchup with the Broncos.
We interrupt your regular scheduled programming with the 2012 rendition of “Peyton Manning’s Season-High Fantasy Production,” brought to you by your local Girl Scouts Association and the Oakland Raiders’ atrocious pass defense.
Indeed, Manning—one of the greatest of all time—will produce his greatest fantasy output of 2012 at the Raiders’ behalf. Let’s find out why.
1. Manning Has Done It All Year Long
In the unlikely case that there are any skeptical boo-birds in the audience, let’s make one thing abundantly clear:
Manning is 100 percent operational and has put up big-time numbers all year long.
His performance in Atlanta (all the way back) in Week 2 notwithstanding, Manning has thrown multiple touchdowns in all but one game. Even then he still threw for over 300 yards and completed more than 70 percent of his passes against the Panthers.
He has also amassed an efficiency rating of 100-plus in all but three games (again, minus the Falcons matchup). And those three instances never amounted to anything below an 83.0.
Those consistent numbers also translate into the fantasy realm. Manning totaled 20-plus points in six of his first seven games, including five straight. He missed that landmark by a mere total of 3.88 points in a combined three other games as well. Essentially 10 of 12 games with 20-plus sounds good to us.
Point being, Manning is as consistently productive a quarterback as there is in this league.
That quality, as well as his 68.0 completion percentage (No. 1), 29 touchdown passes (No. 2) and 2.01 interception rate with a minimum of 400 pass attempts (No. 2) are reasons why he is the No. 1 rated quarterback in the NFL.
And as the No. 6 ranked fantasy player, well, just expect that number to aim for loftier echelons, beginning with the Raiders coming up next on the schedule.
Manning throwing against vulnerable defenses? Oh the mercy…
2. A Forgiving No. 25 Ranking
Urban Dictionary may want to make official a new popular phrase in NFL fantasy vernacular: numbers totally lie.
Even with the eighth-worst mark, the Raiders’ No. 25 ranking in pass defense is entirely too forgiving and completely belies their porous status. This unit has allowed the second-most touchdowns (24), third-highest efficiency rating (100. 7), fourth-highest completion percentage (66.0) and has intercepted the fourth-fewest passes (eight).
Equally dismal is that only three teams have surrendered more 20-plus yard completions than Oakland’s 47. And zero teams—yes, not a single one—has given up as many 40-plus yard pass plays (12).
Oh, and fantasy speaking, no defense has given up as many points (376) and scored as few (26.00).
Simply put, the Raiders are thoroughly deficient at cornerback and safety relating to talent, injuries and quality depth. They also lack any semblance of a pass rush with only 14 sacks on the season (second-fewest).
Quarterbacks simply drop back, enjoy a pleasantly wide-open pocket and take their time dismantling the secondary.
Up next? We think you know where we’re going with this…
3. Manning Has Done It Before and Will Do It Again
Welcome to Manning vs. Raiders 2.0.
Back in the Week 4 matchup between these two clubs, Manning torched the Raiders for 338 yards, three TDs and an ungodly completion rate of 79 percent. He earned a QBR and efficiency rating of 92.0 and 130.0, respectively.
That’s just downright criminal (good or bad depending on your perspective).
In fantasy scoring, Manning accrued 25.42 points, his highest total of the season. More impressive is that running back Willis McGahee put up his second-best fantasy day during that very game. He ran for 112 yards, one TD and earned 19.50 points—easily taking fantasy points away from Manning.
However, McGahee tore his MCL in Week 11 against the Chargers and is out for the season. He was Denver’s leading rusher by all measures, especially with first-round bust Knowshon Moreno, Lance Ball and unproven rookie Ronnie Hillman serving as the backups.
And where does a running back’s points naturally go without any real viable replacement behind him?
Let’s go…with…the…quarterback! That would be one Peyton Manning for our purposes.
Watch out for his season-best 25.42-point total to become obsolete by the conclusion of TNF.