Every year fantasy owners research to find the year’s breakout star. While finding the next fantasy stud can make your season, it is also important to try and predict the players to avoid. An early pick in the draft that fails to produce can lead to a brutally long season and pure fantasy frustration. Despite football season being months away, below is a listing of players who I believe will see a reduction in their fantasy numbers during the 2013 season.
Mikel Leshoure, Running Back, Detroit Lions
While not the biggest name on the list, Leshoure put up decent fantasy numbers last season. He ranked 66th overall in fantasy scoring, and proved to be a solid number two running back or flex option. However, this did not keep the Lions from bringing in Reggie Bush through free agency. Bush, who is faster and a better receiver than Leshoure, provides the Lions with more versatility out of the backfield. Bush should take over as the starter on pass-happy Detroit Lions team, and put a dent in Leshoure’s 2013 numbers. While Leshoure may lose out on the starting role, I still expect him to play a major part in Detroit’s goal-line packages, and provide decent fantasy value.
Joe Flacco, Quarterback, Baltimore Ravens
Flacco put together a great 2012 regular season, and followed it up with an even more memorable post-season run. However, the loss of Anquan Boldin this offseason could put a big dent in Flacco’s fantasy numbers. Aside from receivers Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones, the rest of the Raven’s wide receivers only have combined for a total of 21 career receptions. If a young receiver fails to step up, Flacco’s fantasy number in 2013 could fall dramatically.
Doug Martin, Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As a rookie, Martin put up fantastic fantasy numbers. Ranking as the 13th overall fantasy player in 2012, Martin had 11 rushing touchdowns and 1,454 yards on the ground. While Martin should put together another solid fantasy season, do not be surprised to see a drop-off from last year’s numbers. On the schedule this season, Martin will have to face the 49ers (second ranked defense against the run in 2012), the Seahawks (fifth ranked defense against the run in 2012), the Patriots (fourth ranked defense against the run in 2012), and the Falcons twice (sixth ranked defense against the run in 2012). Combine that with the additions of defensive coordinator, Rob Ryan, in New Orleans, and Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short in Carolina, and Martin could struggle to reach the same level of production this season.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals
Green-Ellis finished last season with 151.8 fantasy points and as the 64th overall fantasy scorer. Green-Ellis had his moments in 2012, but with the addition of running back, Giovani Bernard, Green-Ellis could quickly be forgotten in Cincinnati. I expect Bernard to win the starting job from Green-Ellis early on, and for Green-Ellis’ fantasy numbers to take a major hit.
Tom Brady, Quarterback, New England Patriots
It is hard to put Brady on this list. He is a quarterback who has dominated not only the NFL, but fantasy leagues everywhere. However, with the loss of Wes Welker, I expect Brady to see a drop in fantasy production. The addition of Danny Amendola should help fill the hole left by Welker, but the big question is if Amendola can stay healthy for a whole season. Brady saw his fantasy numbers drop from 366.3 (in 2011) to 340.28 (in 2012), and with all new faces at wide receiver, do not be surprised to see a drop again in 2013.