Projected Chicago Bears Fantasy Dud

By Vincent Frank on Monday, July 29th 2013
Projected Chicago Bears Fantasy Dud

Matt Forte has been somewhat enigma around the fantasy football world for some time now. While Forte has put up a minimum of 1,400 yards in each of his first five seasons and is averaging 1,530 total yards per season during that span, he hasn't been an elite fantasy running back. 

The issue with Forte is that he is averaging just seven total touchdowns per season during his career and less than six per season since his rookie campaign.

Most of his issues start and end with an inability to get the ball in the end zone from inside the opponents' 20. He is averaging just one rushing score per 53 attempts since the start of the 2008 season. 

This has impacted Forte's ability to take his fantasy football game to the next level despite putting up rather ridiculous yardage in his career. 

Here are Forte's annual running back rankings since he entered the NFL back in 2008...

 

Fantasy Rankings
Year Ranking
2008 3rd
2009 18th
2010 9th
2011 15th
2012 12th

 

Forte's current ADP stands at 17.53 in redraft leagues. On the surface, this would make him somewhat of a steal considering where he has finished each of the last three seasons. 

The issue here is that new head coach Marc Trestman will be running more of a pass-first offense in the mold of a hybrid west-coast system. This should negatively impact Forte's PPR numbers. He is averaging over 50 receptions per season, numbers that we can't expect to be duplicated in 2013 with Martellus Bennett now at tight end and the emergence of Alshon Jeffery opposite Brandon Marshall at wide receiver. 

Trestman's system focuses more on the short slants to receivers than it does on screens to running backs out of the backfield. In addition, he is going to utilize more of a short drop for quarterback Jay Cutler, who has been sacked an average of three times per game during his tenure in Chicago. 

It's also important to take into account both Jeffery and Bennett when it comes to Chicago's red-zone offense. They will be targeted a great deal due to their frame and athleticism. Couple that with Marshall and Chicago may go to more of a pass-first attack inside the opponents' 20. 

This doesn't even take into account the existence of back-up running back Michael Bush, who struggled through injuries his first season in Chicago. At 6'2" and 243 pounds, Bush represents the perfect short-yardage option for Trestman's offense. 

In short, Forte just might not get enough touches close to the goal line to make a huge fantasy impact. 

While the Pro Bowl running back might be as effective as ever in this offense, it just doesn't translate too well to fantasy football. Expect mid-RB2 production from Forte in 2013. 

Stay In Touch

Scores

No NFL games.
No NFL games.
No NFL games.
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy