When Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon was suspended for the first two games of the 2013 NFL season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, fantasy owners couldn’t backpedal fast enough.
In a 13 or 14 week fantasy season, losing a receiver for two games is obviously a problem. But if owners are willing to sit out those two weeks and fill in their No. 2 receiver spot with someone else, Gordon will turn out to be a nice surprise for the rest of the games that he plays.
According to FantasyPros’ average draft positions, Gordon is currently going 96th overall in most fantasy drafts, the 38th overall wide receiver. Just by looking at Gordon’s stats from last season, it’s easy to see that he could end up to be worth far more than that by season’s end.
Although Gordon caught at least one pass in all 16 games during his rookie season in Cleveland, it wasn’t until about Week 5 that Gordon came on in the offense and became quarterback Brandon Weeden’s favorite target.
By the end of the season, Gordon had caught 50 passes for 805 yards and five touchdowns, which averages out to about 16 yards per catch. Even if Gordon plays in 14 games this season, that would still mean he would accumulate at least 700 receiving yards. The touchdowns aren’t going to be very high, Cleveland’s offense just isn’t that good. But now that Weeden and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner know they can rely on Gordon, he’s going to be getting more than the 96 targets he had last season.
Gordon’s numbers will be even better if Weeden can take a step forward as a quarterback. Although Gordon was targeted 96 times, he only caught 50 of those passes. Some of those were because Gordon dropped several passes during the season, but Weeden only completed 57 percent of his passes which certainly led to some of these missed opportunities.
Assuming Weeden’s numbers hold steady from his rookie season, Gordon’s value is still higher than some of the players going before him. For example, Danario Alexander is going as the 31st receiver according to his ADP. But Alexander has never played in more than 10 games in a season, and the 24-year-old only had three touchdowns in his first two seasons in the league. In 2012, Alexander caught on with the San Diego Chargers, and caught 37 passes last season for 658 yards and seven touchdowns.
Alexander was averaging more yards per game than Gordon last season, but Alexander was playing under head coach Norv Turner at the time who is now in Cleveland. The fifth-year player is also more unreliable than Gordon, and although he played in 10 games, he only had catches in eight of them. Alexander mainly put up his numbers in weeks 9-13, whereas Gordon caught at least one pass in every game and peaked during weeks 3-13.
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt is also just going ahead of Gordon at 94th overall. But last season Britt played in 14 games, the same amount Gordon could play in 2013, and only had 589 touchdowns, averaging 13 yards per catch. Britt also hasn’t played in a full season since his rookie year, and missed 19 games in the past three seasons. Britt also has Jake Locker throwing to him, who is currently on the same skill level as Gordon.
The first two weeks of the season could be tough to get through if owners draft Gordon, but he’ll be the Browns’ No. 1 receiving option when he is in the lineup, only surrounded by Greg Little, who had 647 yards last season and Davone Bess the newcomer from the Miami Dolphins who only has 12 touchdowns in his five NFL seasons. Outside of the top 15 receivers, there’s no guarantee that the player you’re taking is his team’s No. 1 receiving option.
Between the lack of competition around him and the expected improvement of Cleveland’s offense under turner, Gordon could turn out to be a top 25 fantasy receiver when the season is over.