Since the Dallas Cowboys are the Dallas Cowboys, there’s always going to be a considerable amount of hype around their team heading into every season.
The casual football fan always wants to see if “America’s Team” can finally make it back to the playoffs and make a splash in the NFL as they have struggled to do in the past decade. This season, fans are looking to DeMarco Murray to see if he can boost the Cowboys’ rushing attack and take some pressure off of quarterback Tony Romo. But the expectations for Murray might be a little too high in 2013, and fantasy owners would be wise to steer clear of this running back.
Murray is currently going as the 18th running back in most drafts according to FantasyPros’ Average Draft Position, ahead of Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles. But that is high looking at Murray’s history, as well as the position he is in playing for Dallas.
The first and most obvious detractor is Murray’s injury history. In two seasons, Murray has missed nine games, only playing in 10 in 2012. In those 10 games, Murray carried the ball 161 times for 663 yards and four touchdowns. That puts his average yards per carry way down from 2011, dropping from 5.5 to 4.1 per carry.
If Murray is healthy by the beginning of the season, he’ll have to split time with rookie Joseph Randle who the Cowboys drafted this year out of Oklahoma State. Randle is a very talented back, rushing for 1,417 yards in his senior season and scoring 26 total touchdowns in his junior year.
When Murray does get the ball, it will be in a single-back formation, since the Cowboys are electing to start the season without a fullback on their roster. Murray does have experience with that, since Dallas ran the ball 194 times last season out of that formation. However, a one-man backfield hasn’t worked that well for star running backs in the past. Look at backs like Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice and Ahmad Bradshaw. All those backs rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and had traditional fullbacks in their lineup.
In today’s NFL, the traditional fullback is a dying breed, but at least teams have hybrid fullbacks who can run block, pass block and swing out of the backfield and catch passes but even those types of players are invaluable on teams who make rushing a priority. But even as just early as 2008, every top rushing team had a traditional fullback to block for their respective backs.
Frankly, the Cowboys aren't built to run. They ranked second to last in the league last season in rushing yards and only scored eight rushing touchdowns, which was tied for the third worst in the league. Dallas also isn’t a very good team, finishing 8-8 in the past two seasons and 6-10 in 2010. When you’re playing from behind you’re not going to be running the ball.
Last season, the Cowboys attempted to throw the ball 123 times in the first quarter, compared to 197 times in the fourth quarter of games. That took away carries from Murray and the rest of the running backs. In the first quarter of games, Dallas ran the ball 96 times, but when the fourth quarter came around they only ran 77 times and averaged two yards less per carry.
Murray is a fine pick in later rounds in hoping that he’ll finally play all 16 games in a season, but no one should be expecting him to out-score McFadden, Sproles or Bush given the Cowboys’ recent struggles along with their tendency to give the ball to Romo in crunch time.