The big play ability of Mike Wallace makes him an attractive fantasy wide receiver, especially given the big numbers he put up in four seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
However, it looks like Wallace is at the wrong place at the wrong time with the Miami Dolphins in 2013, and likely won’t put up the numbers he had in 2012.
Fantasy owners are hoping he can replicate his explosive numbers (32 touchdowns in four years with the Steelers), since they are taking him as the 20th wide receiver according to Fantasy Football Calculator’s average draft position. In a standard league, that would put Wallace at the cusp of being a No. 2 wide receiver, when he shouldn’t be any more than a flex play.
In Pittsburgh, Wallace’s calling card was making big plays, connecting with Ben Roethlisberger on deep balls for big yards and oftentimes touchdowns. In 2012, Wallace caught three passes of 41 yards or more, according to ESPN, two of them going for touchdowns. Those numbers were even higher in 2011, when he caught five passes that were thrown 41 or more yards for two touchdowns. If both of those catches had been eliminated in each of the two seasons, he’d be down to six touchdowns.
And looking at Miami’s passing numbers from last season, it doesn’t look like Wallace is going to sniff a 40-yard catch. The Dolphins attempted just three passes of 41 or more yards last year and didn’t complete a single one, although they did complete 4-of-14 passes between 31 and 40 yards but only one of those passes resulted in a touchdown. After 17 weeks, Miami was the seventh worst passing offense in the league in yards per game and only had more passing touchdowns than two other teams.
Brian Hartline was the Dolphin’s leading receiver and did surpass 1,000 receiving yards, but only pulled in one touchdown as did No. 2 receiver Davone Bess. The team leader in receiving touchdowns was tight end Anthony Fasano, followed by then-running back Reggie Bush with two and fullback Charles Clay with two as well.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is only playing his second season in the NFL, is far more effective from shorter distances, completing 63 percent of passes thrown between one and 10 yards and only 39 percent on passes thrown between 21 and 30 yards. This inevitably leads to less fantasy production for receivers and a tendency to check down to backs and tight ends.
When Miami’s offense isn’t inhibiting Wallace’s performance, the teams they’re playing against will be. In their 16 games this season, six of them are against teams who ranked in the top 10 passing defenses in 2012.
Even if the Dolphins become more of a passing team, Wallace will have to fight for catches with Hartline. Hartline was the No. 1 passing option for Tannehill in 2012, and teams will likely double-cover Wallace to prevent him from going deep, allowing Hartline, a possession receiver, to pick up first downs 10 yards at a time like Tannehill prefers.
Wallace is still an explosive receiver, and therefore is deserving of a flex spot, but receivers like Torrey Smith, Eric Decker and Pierre Garcon who are going behind Wallace right now in drafts are more likely to produce No. 2 wide receiver numbers than Wallace in the Miami offense.