When most fantasy owners are looking for fantasy football sleepers prior to their drafts, they are looking for someone to draft in the late rounds who will blow up in Week 2 or 3.
However, there are often sleepers who don’t show up until later in the season – say Week 10 or 11 who can be followed on the waiver wire long after the draft has finished. In this case, Geno Smith could turn out to be a nice fantasy surprise on the New York Jets.
Smith currently isn’t worth a draft pick, but neither is Mark Sanchez. The Jets’ starting quarterback job is currently up for grabs in training camp and presumably through the preseason as well, so there’s just about an equal chance that Smith will be the starter in New York in Week 1 or that he’ll be holding a clipboard. However, even if he doesn’t begin the season as the starter there’s a very good chance Sanchez is pulled in favor of the rookie.
Either way, Smith is worth keeping an eye on and he could turn out to be a pretty productive fantasy quarterback and would more than suffice as a backup or a fill in if a top 12 quarterback is injured.
Smith says he has a good shot at getting the starting job in New York – and rightfully so. In his sophomore season at West Virginia, Smith became the starter for the Mountaineers and got off to a very good start, throwing for 2,763 yards. But the following two seasons, Smith put up amazing numbers during his junior and senior seasons, throwing for a combined 8,590 yards and 73 touchdowns while only giving up 13 interceptions. Smith’s yardages ranked third in the country among 1-A quarterbacks and his touchdowns ranked No. 1. With those gawdy numbers, it’s amazing that Smith had to wait until the second round of the draft for a team to finally call his name.
Even if Sanchez is named the starter at the beginning of the season, the Sanchize hasn’t put up the numbers lately to fell 100 percent confident that he’ll remain in that role all season. In 15 games last season, the 26-year-old only threw for 2,883 yards and 13 touchdowns. Of course, that’s before you look at the 18 interceptions he threw and the nine fumbles he gave up last season, including, of course, the infamous “butt fumble.” By the end of the season, Sanchez had the worst total quarterback rating in the league, behind the likes of Brandon Weeden in Cleveland and Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville.
In short, although Sanchez is only a few years removed from back-to-back appearances in the AFC Championship, there’s a strong chance he will be pulled if he doesn’t start the season out strong.
If Smith does get the opportunity to start, the Jets are outfitted for Smith to put up solid numbers. New York’s offensive line isn’t great, but it isn’t horrible. The Jets ranked right in the middle of the league in quarterback hits last season with 76 and were No. 12 overall in the league in rushing yards. The O-Line is still headed up by veteran center Nick Mangold, so it’s certainly not one of the worst lines in the league. Smith would also have Santonio Holmes to throw to, who is incredibly talented and can produce when he decides to show up. Just two seasons ago, Holmes had 51 catches for 654 yards and eight touchdowns. That same season, Holmes was targeted 102 times so he could have had way more catches if Sanchez was a better quarterback, so his numbers could climb if Holmes has Smith throwing to him, who completed 71 percent of passes in his senior year with the Mountaineers.
The Jets also signed tight end Kellen Winslow who only played in one game for the New England Patriots last season, but in 2011 caught 75 passes for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 763 yards and two touchdowns. Winslow is 30, but he can certainly still be a productive tight end in the NFL.
Again, don’t draft Smith in any draft, unless it’s a two-quarterback league and he has already been named the starter by draft day. But keep an eye on him and the Jets as the season goes on, because he could find himself as the starter at the halfway mark of the season and has the talent to put up some quality fantasy numbers.