Ryan Mathews
Enjoy the article? That's about it from me.
Okay, I am sure that some of you irrational Mathews' lovers out there want a detailed explanation for me projecting him to be a major fantasy dud in 2013.
Let's start with a lack of overall production from the former first-round pick in his first three NFL seasons. Mathews has tallied over 1,000 yards on the ground just once during that span. Apologists for the enigmatic fantasy performer will point that that 2011 performance as a breakout season.
If you have played fantasy football at a relatively high level, you know full well that 1,000 yards doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot in the NFL today. Mathews' 1,091-yard performance in 2011 netted him the the No. 8 fantasy spot among running back. If that's Mathews' ceiling, it makes a lot of sense to avoid him.
The Fresno State product currently has an ADP (averaged draft position) of 59.0, which ranks him as a bottom-tier RB2 option in standard 12-team leagues. Montee Ball, Le'Veon Bell, Chris Ivory and Shane Vereen are all directly below Mathews on that list.
None of those four players have been every-down running backs in the NFL up to this point, and only one (Ivory) will be counted on to perform at that level in 2013.
This should tell you all you need to know about where group think has Mathews as it relates to fantasy production in 2013.
That doesn't even begin the conversation.
Mathews averaged less than four yards per carry last season and scored one total touchdown on 223 touches. This comes on the heels of the youngster putting up 13 combined touchdowns in his first two seasons. It seems that Mathews struggled facing short-yardage situations with Mike Tolbert out of the mix, carries that went to the latter in abundance over the previous two seasons.
In addition to having troubled getting the ball into the end zone, Mathews has fumbled 12 times in 564 career rush attempts. That's not exactly going to inspire confidence in the coaching staff to get him the ball on a consistent basis.
Mathews has also missed over 20 percent of San Diego's outings over the course of his first three NFL seasons.
While it's hard to imagine Mathews not living up to his bottom-tier RB2 status, I would definitely warn against anyone expecting much more than that in 2013. He could easily put up 1,000-plus rushing yards, but the scoring opportunities are just not going to be there.
Projected Statistics: 900 rushing yards, 3.9 average, 35 receptions, 280 yards and four touchdowns