Surprises generally abound when it comes to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers—fantasy or otherwise. In a mere three season’s time, winning records quickly turn into divisional mockery and end with something resembling the in-between.
Take 2010 through 2012 for instance.
LeGarrette Blount comes out of nowhere and rushes for 1,000-plus yards, Mike Williams catches fewer than one-third of his touchdown passes from the year before and rookie Doug Martin finishes second behind only Adrian Peterson in total points among fantasy running backs.
Get the picture?
With the overall pattern of good-bad-neutral in mind, let’s maintain order and announce that Josh Freeman will reclaim his top-seven fantasy status from 2010.
Freeman threw 25 touchdowns next to just six interceptions in his sophomore campaign—otherwise known as a 4:1 TD:INT ratio. He completed the eighth-highest percent of his passes (62.8) and orchestrated five game winning drives, good for third-most among NFL quarterbacks.
Then came 2011. Freeman lost more games (11) than his 10 total wins from the previous season. Even more astonishing was his nearly four times as many interceptions, going from six to a ghastly 22.
He bounced back in 2012 and set career highs with 4,065 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. Yet, he still only recorded just a hair above of his career-worst completion percentage of 54.8. Throwing the ball into the hands of the opposition 17 times usually doesn’t lend itself to accurate passing.
Well, here comes some logic of cyclical tendencies to save the day. Freeman will surprise the masses with a career-defining campaign in 2013, answering the call set forth by Buccaneers head coach Greg Schiano and realizing his full quarterbacking potential.
And what does that exactly entail fantasy-wise?
With the recent proliferation of dual-threat quarterbacks that pile up rather unfair point-totals, what amounted to a No. 7 ranking in 2010 won’t produce the same result in 2013. That said, it still will be plenty respectable.
Freeman will benefit from opposing defenses gearing up to prevent Martin from running roughshod over their football egos. Vincent Jackson won’t quite compile another league-leading 19.2 yards per catch, but will still serve as a consistently effective weapon for Freeman over top. Mike Williams will continue his work as one of the more underappreciated No. 2 wide receivers, while Tiquan Underwood and his high-top fade will respond to the challenge posed by the new free-agent signings and solidify the third spot in Freeman’s read progression.
The fantasy surprise, then, is Freeman supplanting one of his counterparts in a quarterback-ridiculous NFC South for total points at season’s end. We’re certainly not endorsing the idea of Freeman leapfrogging point master Drew Brees, but we will say that he’ll finish ahead of either Matt Ryan or Cam Newton.
Could this amount to blasphemous fantasy projections? Perhaps.
At this stage, though, Freeman is set for 4,400 total yards and 30 touchdowns from scrimmage while also cutting his interception total nearly in half.
We’re sensing a 300-point fantasy output on the 2013 horizon.
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