Random Fantasy Football Musings Heading Into Week 8

By Vincent Frank on Tuesday, October 27th 2015
Random Fantasy Football Musings Heading Into Week 8

There are currently 16 quarterbacks on pace to throw for 4,000-plus yards this season, including the likes of Josh McCown, Alex Smith and Blake Bortles. To put that into perspective, five years ago just five quarterbacks finished with 4,000 or more yards. A decade ago, that number stood at just two. 

This is relevant from a fantasy perspective for a number of reasons. A quarterback has to average 250 passing yards per game to reach that 4,000-yard plateau. Last week alone, six quarterbacks that finished outside of the top 12 tallied at least 250 yards. Heck, back in Week 6, Carson Palmer finished as the 17th-best fantasy quarterback despite tallying 421 passing yards. 

Here's something to think about moving forward this season: 

While those of you who do the necessary preparation during the week likely knew that both the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos were among the best defenses against quarterbacks. However, this statistic — provided by Salvatore Stefanile of 2QBFFB.com — tells us a pretty interesting story. 

Quarterbacks going up against the Panthers this season have averaged 21.5 fantasy ranking in a given week. As it relates to the Broncos, who will be taking on Aaron Rodgers, that ranking is 25.8. 

Normally, it would make sense to avoid starting quarterbacks against these defenses until further notice. While that might be true, there's a little something called level of competition. 

On average, quarterbacks that have gone against the Broncos this season rank 17th in fantasy points. That ranking currently stands at 17.8. This tells us a story of two teams that haven't necessarily gone up against top-end quarterback competition thus far this season.

In the five games Jordan Reed has played this season, he has racked up 47 targets. That's an average of 9.4 targets per game compared to the 9.0 targets per game Rob Gronkowski is averaging. Considering Reed's average production (five receptions, 70 yards per game), he most definitely a solid DFS play when healthy. 

Russell Wilson has turned the ball over seven times in as many games this season. That comes on the heels of him turning it over seven times all of last season. More than just the Seattle Seahawks atrocious offensive line play, luck is a major factor here. Wilson fumbled the ball 13 times last year, all of which were recovered by Seattle. The difference here is that Wilson has lost two fumbles on the year. This has him well below his preseason ADP — currently as the eighth-ranked fantasy quarterback on the season. 

If you look at the top-six fantasy running backs in standard leagues this year, it will throw you for a loop. 

 

Rank Player Team Rush Yards Receiving Yards Total Yards TD Points
1 Devonta Freeman ATL 621 310 931 10 153.10
2 Mark Ingram NO 450 235 685 5 96.50
3 Doug Martin TB 541 129 670 4 89.00
4 Matt Forte CHI 507 191 698 3 87.80
5 Chris Ivory NYJ 501 74 575 5 87.50
6 Danny Woodhead SD 187 407 594 4 83.40

 

Only one of these players (Forte) was being relied on as a RB1 option during preseason drafts. For the others, there were a ton of questions. Could Ingram stay healthy for a full season in New Orleans? Was Martin ready to return to 2012 form after struggling for the past two years? Could Ivory shoulder the load in New York? Was Woodhead anything more than a handcuff to Melvin Gordon in San Diego? 

And the top fantasy running back, Devonta Freeman, wasn't even on our radar during the summer. Instead, the fantasy community seemed enthralled by rookie Tevin Coleman in Atlanta.

Much like the quarterback position, there is a changing dynamic at running back. Woodhead finds himself as the sixth-best fantasy running back based on eDraft's scoring system. When looking at FanDuel's scoring system, Woodhead is the third-best fantasy running back heading into Week 8. 

What's the issue here? 

For Woodhead owners, there is absolutely no issue. However, it's readily apparent that we must start really factoring in receiving from the running back position. Woodhead ranks ahead of the likes of Adrian Peterson despite the fact that he's on pace for more receiving yards (930) than rushing yards (427). 

A total of 17 running backs are on pace for 1,000 rushing yards. Out of that group, only Todd Gurley is on pace to tally 1,500-plus rushing yards. Now taking into account receiving yards, eight running backs are on pace to hit the 1,500-yard plateau.

Three wide receivers — DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas — are on pace to be targeted 200-plus times this season. Since targets starting being tabulated back in 1990, only four receivers have put up 200 targets in a season.

A total of 10 receivers are on pace to put up 100-plus receptions. For comparison's sake, four hit that mark last season with just two hitting it a half decade ago. 

Do with that what you want. 

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