When you are following football in July, there’s unbearable term, one term that you never want to come across, and Adam Schefter tweeted the words on Saturday night. “Out for the year,” Schefter tweeted when passing along words from an ESPN source when passing along the status of Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta.
Pitta was carted off of the field after hitting the turf in training camp practice. Hours later, Pitta had completed surgery on a dislocated hip. That is the same injury that will reportedly keep him out for the entire 2013 season. Now that we have the facts straight, let’s dive into the opinion: my take on what this injury means for the Ravens 2013 season.
What Does it Mean?
Pitta was expected to play a big role in the middle of the field in 2013 after Anquan Boldin -- the team leader in receiving yards in 2012 – departed via trade. Boldin accounted for 27 percent (114) of Joe Flacco’s passes between the line of scrimmage and 19 yards out last year (421). Pitta added another 88, putting the total at a whopping 47 percent of Flacco’s targets in that area of the field to the two guys who are no longer with the team. Not only does Flacco rely on his targets of the middle of the field, but his tight ends are important too. Flacco’s tight ends have accounted for 22 percent of his attempts over the last two years.
It’s clear the Ravens will need a replacement for the 201 targets within the 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. But who?
Who Will Replace Pitta’s Targets?
Torrey Smith is the easy answer. He’s starting his second year as the Ravens No. 1 receiver and he scored eight times in 2012. While there’s no doubt he should see his share of the targets pie, Smith has been strictly a deep-ball receiver in his first two years in the NFL, as he’s posted some of the highest average depth of target numbers in the league, which last year was just over 17 yards. Smith’s dominance as a deep man with only dabbles in the short game might assume that he’s not inline to assume the largest portion of our targets pie.
Next up, Ed Dickson. Dickson, a third-round pick in 2010, has served mostly as a blocker while Pitta, a faster version of Dickson coming out of college, has played a receiving role. In 2012, Pitta logged 848 snaps and was targeted 90 times (9.42 : 1) while Dickson logged 695 snaps and was targeted just 31 times (22.42 : 1). Pitta was clearly the receiving guy of the two. But can Dickson assume the Pitta role?
The two posted similar measurable coming out of college: measuring just one-eighth of an inch difference in height and four pounds difference in weight. Although Pitta’s 40-yard time was .19 seconds faster than Dickson pre-draft, Rotoviz’s Shawn Siegele’s Domintor Rating projected Edickson as a more valuable NFL prospect. It seems that with these measurables, Dickson can, in fact, replace Pitta.
Flacco needs a target in the middle of the field, as mentioned earlier. If the team does not bring a veteran receiver in (cough – Brandon Lloyd – cough), Dickson seems like the most viable to do that, whether Flacco likes him as much as Pitta or not.
Whoever the Ravens decide to go with in their No. 2 wide receiver slot -- Jacoby Jones, Tommy Streeter, Aaron Mellette -- should play a more prominent role with Pitta out as well, but not as prominent at Dickson, who projects to garner nearly 20 percent of Flacco’s targets if he continues to target his tight ends like he has in the past.