There is a certain buzz surrounding Cleveland Browns training camp this preseason. It’s something the team has never experienced: A star-studded quarterback. His name is Johnny Manziel, but you probably already knew that.
Manziel was drafted with the 22nd pick in May’s NFL Draft and the speculation began that night. Would Manziel be a star NFL quarterback? Would he start Week 1? Or would he fail like Tim Tebow did a few years ago.
The answers to those questions will become clearer starting Saturday when the Browns take the field for their first preseason game. Manziel, the No. 2 quarterback, will compete in his first NFL-sanctioned game after months of buzz. Here are a few expectations for this season as Manziel transitions into the NFL.
Manziel will start Week 5
For a first-year quarterback competing against a veteran in Brian Hoyer, it’s hard to imagine Manziel overtaking him that quickly. It will take time to establish the comfortableness it takes to be a starting quarterback in this league.
Manziel will work hard in these preseason games and in practice, and Hoyer will have to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens in the meantime. After those three weeks, it could be time to turn the page.
Coincidentally, Week 4 is the Browns bye week, meaning Manziel would have an extra week to work with the first team. If Hoyer struggles at all, expect this to be the plan for Manziel this season.
Manziel will pass for 2,000+ yards and 15 touchdowns
Last season for the Texas A&M Aggies, Manziel amassed 4,114 yards and 37 touchdown passes. He led an explosive offense and if he can translate any of his skills to the NFL, he should see relatively strong numbers offensively.
It also helps that he completed 69.9 percent of his passes in 2013. Facing defenses like the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals, Manziel will have to complete his passes to succeed. Expect him to fit in the 60-65 percent range for completions.
If the Browns favored the pass, Manziel could throw for 3,000+ yards. However, with veteran Ben Tate and rookie Terrance West in the backfield, he won’t need to pass as much as in his days at Texas A&M. The run game will take pressure off him, forcing his passing yards to drop.
Manziel will run for less than 500 yards
If he had a voice, Manziel would probably run for more than 1,000 yards this season. However, defenses will be prepared for the agility and cleverness of his game. Teams have faced Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Michael Vick. They’ll know that to expect.
Manziel did run for 759 yards last year, but his days of escaping defensive lines at will might be over. He’ll be forced to throw the ball in many situations.
However, his running ability could work to the Browns advantage in the red zone. The Browns found the end zone just 52.78% of the drives in the red zone, so the creativity of Manziel’s game could really help in crunch time.
Manziel will not win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Yes, Manziel may be the most electrifying rookie in all of football this year, but his team just isn’t as good as it needs to be for their quarterback to have a breakout year. With Josh Gordon likely out for at least part of the season, Manziel will lose his top target through the air.
Opposing defense will pressure Manziel to throw, and in turn he will make mistakes like all rookies do. Going against AFC North teams six times this season, it will be tough for him to put up anything close to his stats at Texas A&M.
Plus, there are a few rookies who look to make bigger contributions to their teams earlier in the season. Sammy Watkins leads a group of top picks that could have a better shot at winning the award than Manziel.
With that said, Johnny Football got his name for doing things on a football field that no one else could. Is it possibly that he has a breakout season in 2014? Sure. But it doesn’t seem likely just yet.