The San Diego Chargers have not performed up to par over the last two seasons. They've had one of the most talented teams in the AFC West, but continued to struggle living up to that talent.
Gone is Norv Turner, who was on the hot seat for the final three years as head coach in San Diego. He has been replaced by former Denver Broncos offensive cooradintor Mike McCoy, who will look to rekindle the success that Philip Rivers saw in his earlier seasons.
In terms of fantasy football, the Chargers are about as enigmatic as they are on the real football field. There is a ton of talent here, but owners who reach for players in Southern California usually end up getting screwed in the long run.
Can we expect the same thing in 2013? Let's see.
Philip Rivers, Quarterback
Back in 2010, Rivers finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback. He averaged 17.6 points per outing, which placed him right ahead of former teammate Drew Brees. It's been a mighty hard drop since.
In 2011, Rivers was still a solid QB1 option. He finished ninth in fantasy points, but also tied Rex Grossman for the fourth-most interceptions in the NFL with 20. His yards-per-game numbers dropped from 289.0 in 2011 to 225.4 this past season. Overall, he finished as the 21st-best fantasy quarterback in 2013. This made him a bottom-tier QB2 option.
San Diego's pass protection will have to get better this season if Rivers is going to regain pre-2011 form. The addition of King Dunlap to play left tackle and selection of D.J. Fluker from Alabama in the first round of April's draft to play right tackle could help. That being said, San Diego's offensive line situation is still as mediocre as they come. The loss of starting guard Louis Vasquez to the division-rival Denver Broncos surely won't hel.
Projected 2013 Statistics: 4,120 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions
Ryan Mathews, Running Back
Mathews is that tease that shows some skin, but seems to be already out of your class. He sniffs greatness due to a tremendous amount of athletic ability, only to fizzle out after he goes relatively high in fantasy drafts. His ADP in standard re-draft leagues this past season was right in the middle of the third round (27th overall). This made Mathews the 12th running back off the board and a borderline RB1 option.
Imagine if it had actually played out this way on the field. Mathews recorded less than 1,000 total yards in 12 games, including just 707 on the ground. He ended the season as the 30th-ranked running back in the National Football League. Don't play a fool's game with Mathews this season. He is nowhere near a RB1 option and should be relied on only as a decent RB2 option in standard re-draft leagues. In terms of PPR production, Mathews is averaging 37 receptions per season in his first three years in the NFL.
Projected Statistics: 940 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 220 yards and five total touchdowns
Malcom Floyd, Wide Receiver
Many expected Floyd to take over for Vincent Jackson as the Chargers' No. 1 wide receiver when the latter departed for green pasture in Tampa Bay last offseason. It did not happen. Floyd's yardage numbers and receptions average both dropped as Rivers' top target at wide receiver. In the end, Floyd finished as a decent FLEX option in standard leagues. With the addition of Keenan Allen and return to health of a couple other receivers, I am not expecting Floyd's numbers to increase a great deal in 2013.
Projected Statistics: 50 receptions, 850 yards and five touchdowns
Vincent Brown, Wide Receiver
One of my preseason picks to be a sleeper last year, Brown suffered a preseason injury against the San Francisco 49ers and missed his entire sophomore campaign. This was bad news for the Chargers considering that Brown had tallied 329 yards and two scores in limited playing time as a rookie the season before.
In looking at possible indicators of fantasy success, we don't really have a great way to gauge Brown. It is, however, important to look at reception percentage (50 percent for Brown in 2011) and expect natural growth considering that he was a rookie. In addition, Brown promises to play a larger role in San Diego's offense this year. As it is, Brown is nothing more than a bench warmer in standard leagues and a decent under-the-radar late-round pick in dynasty leagues.
Projected Statistics: 35 receptions, 545 yards and three touchdowns
Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver
Check out my fantasy preview on the CAL product here.
Antonio Gates, Tight End
Even in a watered-down tight end market as it relates to fantasy football, I would be hard pressed to call Gates a decent TE1 option. He hasn't played a full 16-game slate since 2010 and recorded just 538 receiving yards in 15 games this past season. This was good enough to ranked Gates 12th among tight ends in fantasy points because he still recorded seven touchdowns. At 32-year-old and with a recent history of injuries, Gates shouldn't be relied on to be anything more than a solid TE2 option.
Projected Statistics: 55 receptions, 605 yards and six touchdowns