The San Diego Chargers more or less owned the AFC West from 2004 through 2009. Since finishing 4-12 in 2003, they’ve won the division five times, taken second three times (2010-2012), and fallen as low as third place once (2005). However, their last three seasons have all been considered failures, relative to preseason expectations. Each year, they started the season as favorites in the division, if not the conference. But each season they’ve underwhelmed and fallen short of the division crown.
In 2010, a career year from Matt Cassel carried the Kansas City Chiefs to the division title as the Chargers fell short, despite outscoring their opponents by almost 80 points more than the Chiefs and leading the league in total offense AND total defense. In 2011, they started out strong, winning four of their first five games; however, they dropped their next six games, including two overtime games within the division. They managed to finish the season 8-8, but the damage was done. They lost out to the 8-8 Denver Broncos, who followed Tim Tebow to the second round of the playoffs.
General Manager A.J. Smith and head coach Norv Turner had made some curious roster moves throughout the last several years (like letting dynamic running back Darren Sproles walk before the 2011 season), but last offseason was a doozy. Among other things, they let star wide receiver Vincent Jackson and running back Michael Tolbert walk as free agents, and replaced them with Robert Meachem and Ronnie Brown, respectively. Both players were predictably disappointing, and the Chargers offense struggled all year.
So where are they going to go from here? They replaced Smith and Turner with Tom Telesco, the former VP of football operations for the Indianapolis Colts, and Mike McCoy, the former offensive coordinator for the Broncos. These two men will be tasked with returning the team to its dominance of last decade, and it would behoove them to take advantage of the last three years of Philip Rivers’ contract. There are several clearly-defined holes in the roster that they'll need to target.
Offensive Line
Some might choose to break this down into offensive tackle and offensive guard, but the Chargers need talent either way. Left tackle Jared Gaither was their big free agent acquisition last year, and he proceeded to play in five games and check out of the season with “injuries.” He won’t be back with the team. Right tackle Jeromey Clary has been up and down, but for now he’ll have to do.
Louis Vazquez and Tyronne Green are both of their starting guards and both free agents. Mike McCoy comes from a zone-blocking background. Vazquez won’t fit that system very well and Green just isn’t very good. Look for the Chargers to spend at least one of their first two picks on offensive linemen, in addition to adding another lineman or two in free agency. Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, and Lane Johnson are the top three tackles in the draft, and guards Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper could merit a selection in the middle of the first round.
Cornerback
Quentin Jammer has had a great run with the Chargers since they drafted him in 2002, but at 33 years old, he’s lost a step, and he’s a free agent. They likely won’t retain him. Their other starting cornerback, Antoine Cason, is also a free agent, and at 26, will likely be looking for his first big free agent payday. He’d be worth retaining, simply because their depth behind him isn’t great. If the top offensive linemen leave the board before the Chargers’ 11th pick, look for them to add one of the top two cornerbacks, either Dee Milliner or Xavier Rhodes.
Inside Linebacker
Takeo Spikes’ time with the Chargers may have come to an ignominious end when he was ejected for the first time in his 15-year career during the Chargers’ last game of the season against the Raiders. He only has one more year on his contract, but he’s already received the guaranteed money from the deal so he could be cut without negatively affecting the salary cap.
It is probably time for them to inject some more youth into their linebacker corps to go with last year’s first round pick Melvin Ingram. Expect a pick in the middle rounds like Jon Bostic, Kevin Reddick, or Kiko Alonso, but don’t be surprised if they spring for a guy like Kevin Minter or Arthur Brown if one happens to slide to their pick in the second round.
Safety
The Chargers have one of the best free safeties in the NFL in Eric Weddle. He’ll continue to be a mainstay on their defense. But Corey Lynch is a free agent and may not be worth spending free agent money on, so they can look to the draft. They’ll want to target a guy they can rely on in single-high coverage, freeing Weddle to fly around the field and be the playmaker they pay him to be. If they decide this is a priority, they may even spend a second or third round pick on a guy like DJ Swearinger, Phillip Thomas, or Bacarri Rambo.
Conclusion:
The Chargers still have a lot of talent on their roster, and they have a bit of cap space (around $6 million) with a number of contracts that can be shucked off to give them even more wiggle room. With some efficient free agent work and savvy drafting, they can field a legitimate contender in 2013. We’ll do a Chargers’ mock draft in the next couple days, and that’ll give you an idea of just the types of players they can target through all seven rounds of the draft.