Where: Gillette Stadium
Time: 3:40 PM PST
Spread: Patriots (-6)
How Each Team Got Here
The Pittsburgh Steelers had to win two games en route to the AFC Championship Game. They defeated the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card round by the score of 30-12 in a game that saw Antonio Brown put up two long first quarter touchdowns.
All said, Brown caught five passes for 124 yards and two touchdowns on nine targets. He was aided by Le'Veon Bell's 167-yard, two touchdown performance on the ground. Both Bell and Brown were the top fantasy players at their position that week.
The following week saw Pittsburgh struggle in the red zone, ultimately putting up six field goals in an 18-16 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. It also saw Ben Roethlisberger uncharacterically through two interceptions. Though, Bell himself had another tremendous outing. He tallied 170 yards on 30 rush attempts.
Meanwhile, the New England Patriots earned a first-round bye after finishing the regular season with an NFL-best 14-2 record. Their initial playoff game came against a mediocre Houston Texans team in the divisional round. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Houston's top-end defense proved difficult for Tom Brady.
After throwing just two interceptions all regular season, Brady himself was picked off twice against Houston. All said, the MVP front runner threw for 287 yards with two touchdowns and those two picks while completing less than 50 percent of his passes.
Though, this didn't stop both Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman from having big games. Lewis scored a touchdown through the air, on the ground and on a punt return. Meanwhile, Edelman added eight receptions for 137 yards.
The Quarterbacks
Despite missing the first quarter of the season to suspension, Brady finished the regular season as the 18th-best fantasy quarterback. In fact, he averaged the fourth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks. That came in the midst of a season that saw Brady put up 3,554 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Set to take on a Steelers defense that ranked in the top-five of the NFL against fantasy quarterbacks during the regular year, Brady is in for a difficult matchup here. Back in Week 7 in Pittsburgh, Brady completed 19-of-26 passes for 222 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Roethlisberger himself missed that Week 7 game with an injury. He, however, still finished the regular season one spot ahead of Brady in the fantasy rankings. All said, Big Ben's averages made him a QB1 option.
Though one could surely say that he was a disappointing fantasy performer. After all, with the Steelers' talent on offense it's surprising he put up less than 4,000 passing yards while failing to reach the 30-touchdown plateau. It won't be easy for Big Ben on Sunday against a Patriots defense that yielded the fewest points in the NFL during the regular season.
Projections
Tom Brady: 305 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception
Ben Roethlisberger: 280 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception
The Running Backs
There's an interesting dynamic in play with the Patriots here. Despite leading the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns during the regular year, LeGarrette Blount has taken a back seat to Dion Lewis recently. In fact, Lewis saw action on twice as many plays as Blount last week. This led to Lewis putting up three total touchdowns with Blount compiling a horrible 8-31-0 stat line.
It surely wouldn't be a surprise to see Lewis continue to take a stranglehold on the Patriots' running back position come Sunday. He's definitely going to be involved in the passing game, which is a darn good thing considering Pittsburgh yielded the sixth-most fantasy points and second-most receiving yards to running backs during the regular year.
On the other hand, there's no question who is the star of Pittsburgh's backfield. Bell is the first player in NFL history to tally up 150-plus rushing yards in his first two postseason appearances. Postseason included, he's also gained over 2,200 total yards in 14 games this season.
Much like we're seeing when it comes to individual matchups, Bell faces stiff competition here. New England did yield the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. It did, however, toughen up a bit as the season progressed. All said, the Pats are giving up an average of 70 rushing yards over the past seven games. They also held Bell to just 81 rushing yards back in Week 7.
Projections
Dion Lewis: 40 rushing yards, six receptions, 65 yards and one touchdown
Le'Veon Bell: 140 rushing yards, five receptions, 60 yards and two touchdowns
The Receivers
There are some tremendous fantasy receivers taking to the field at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. Antonio Brown finished the regular season as the third-best fantasy receiver while Julian Edelman came in 16th overall. For his part, Brown caught 106-of-154 targets for nearly 1,300 yards to go with 12 touchdowns. On the other hand, Edelman tallied 98 receptions for over 1,100 yards with just three touchdowns.
It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out Sunday. Pittsburgh ranked in the top five against fantasy receives during the regular season while the Patriots came in as the seventh-best fantasy defense against this position.
Projections
Julian Edelman: 10 receptions, 125 yards and one touchdown
Antonio Brown: 7 receptions, 115 yards and one touchdown
The Tight Ends
Martellus Bennett simply hasn't produced at the level we saw earlier in the year recently. In fact, the tight end tasked with replacing an injury Rob Gronkowski has tallied just 201 receiving yards over the past eight games. That came after he put up over 500 in his first nine games.
Don't look for tremendous production against a Steelers defense that yielded less than 11 fantasy points per game during the regular season.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh's tight end situation is even more iffy. Ladarius Green remains in the NFL concussion protocol. He hasn't suited up since Week 15, so it's unrealistic to expect too much from him should he play.
With Green out, Jesse James has taken on more of a role. He caught 5-of-6 passes for 83 yards against a tough Chiefs defense last week. Though, he's also taken on a Patriots defense that ranked in the top seven of the NFL against fantasy tight ends during the regular season.
Projections
Martellus Bennett: 4 receptions, 45 yards
Jesse James: 3 receptions, 37 yards
Prediction: Patriots 31, Steelers 27