The Super Bowl, more so than most games, comes down to matchups. One team may be the better overall team on paper but if they don’t match up favorably with their opponent they could easily lose. This game is no different. That match ups and how each team is able to exploit those match ups is pivotal. Here are the five biggest matchups for Super Bowl XLIX:
Marshawn Lynch vs. Patriots’ Front Seven
Marshawn Lynch has been the glue on this offense. He’s been, without a doubt, Seattle’s offensive MVP. The only team that’s been able to stop Lynch has been Seattle themselves when they’ve decided to under utilize him. According to PFF (subscription), Lynch has the highest run grade in the entire league, the highest elusive rating (a measure of how effective a runner is independent of the offensive line in front of him), and the most broken tackles.
He’s an absolute load to bring down, often times taking multiple defenders with him for 4-5 yards at a time. The Patriots’ front seven will be responsible for bringing Lynch down and doing their best to render him as ineffective as possible. The man that might have the most to do with Lynch’s success or failure is Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork. He was their best run defender all season and will require multiple Seattle linemen to block him on almost every play. In large part due to Wilfork, the Patriots were able to have the sixth best run defense according to PFF. However, there have been a multitude of other players in that front seven who did their part and must do their part again on Sunday if they hope to slow Lynch down. Some of their better run stoppers this season have been Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Sealver Siliga, and Akeem Ayers.
Darrelle Revis vs. Doug Baldwin
The Patriots’ best cornerback, and possibly the best cornerback in the entire league, has been Darrelle Revis. Revis had the fourth highest PFF coverage grade this season and quarterbacks have a quarterback rating of 72.6 when throwing in his direction. He will likely be lined up against Seattle’s best wide receiver, Doug Baldwin. Baldwin is going to have to find a way to win this battle Seattle wants any success passing the ball. Out of all wide receivers, Baldwin had the 31st best PFF rating. Having Revis blanket him the entire game could end up being very problematic for the Seahawks. If Baldwin is unable to win this battle, that means Seattle will be relying on receivers Jermaine Kearse and Ricardo Lockette to get open and both are majoritively just deep threats. This will be a match up to keep an eye on as the game progresses and one that has a major impact.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Seahawks’ Linebackers
Rob Gronkowski might possibly be the biggest mismatch in the NFL. He’s too big and strong for a safety to cover him and entirely too athletic for a linebacker to cover him. Even when double covered he still has the advantage. The Seahawks linebackers, mostly Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, are going to have their most difficult task of the season. They’ll also be getting help from over top from Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas a lot of the time but there will also be a lot of time when they’re covering Gronkowski one on one. If Gronkowski is consistently winning these match ups it’s going to be a long day for Seattle. Some other large, athletic tight ends they’ve faced have been Antonio Gates (seven receptions, 96 yards, three touchdowns), Julius Thomas (three receptions, 17 yards, one touchdown), andJason Witten (two receptions, 24 yards, one touchdown) for an average of four receptions, just over 45 yards, and almost two touchdowns. If Seattle gives up multiple touchdowns to Gronkowski, I don’t think they have a good shot at winning the game.
Patriots’ Wide Receivers vs. Seahawks Secondary
The Seattle secondary could very well be the best position group in the league. The have the best safety tandem with Chancellor and Thomas while also having one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Richard Sherman. Their biggest weakness in their secondary is when you get to the cornerbacks behind Sherman on the depth chart. Guys like Byron Maxwell, Tharold Simon, and Jeremy Lane are all solid cornerbacks but can also be exploited by New England. The Patriots are the best at using different formations, putting different players in motion, and lining players up in all different positions to throw off defenses. They’re going to move Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola all around the field so they can get the match ups they want. It’s going to be a chess match between coaching staffs and these two position groups. It should be a fun battle to watch within the game.
Russell Wilson vs. Patriots’ Pass Rush
Russell Wilson is absolutely incredible at avoiding the pass rush, even if it’s coming from his blind side. He’s up there with Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger at being able to avoid the rush. He’s going to need it possibly more than ever against New England. The athletes they have available to get after the cornerback are unparalleled. Avoiding the rush of guys like Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins, and Rob Ninkovich will be no easy feat. Making Wilson’s job even harder will be the fact that his receivers will likely be having a tough time getting open against the New England secondary, possibly creating more opportunities for coverage sacks. Wilson has to have a much better game than he did against Green Bay or this New England defense is going to really make him pay.