The Baltimore Ravens come into Super Bowl XLVII with a veteran squad ready to prove the world that their run through the AFC wasn't a fluke. The likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed might be suiting up for the only organization that they have known. Meanwhile, reports indicated on Thursday that Anquan Boldin may be a salary cap casualty following the season.
Unlike its NFC counterpart, Baltimore may be nearing the end of its run, rather than the beginning. While this team has a lot of young talent, the core of the roster seems to be getting up there in both age and experience.
Joe Flacco, Torrey Smith, Ray Rice, Michael Oher and Courtney Upshaw all represent the future and will be looking to start their own legacies with this franchise.
Today's article is going to focus on statistical predictions for key member of the Ravens as they prepare for Super Bowl XLVII against the San Francisco in New Orleans on Sunday.
Note: Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson will not be included here because I don't seem them making any type of an impact in Super Bowl XLVII.
Joe Flacco, Quarterback
Career Postseason Averages: 15/28, 199 yards, 1.3 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions (82.5 rating).
2012 Postseason Averages: 17/31, 284 yards, 2.7 touchdowns and 0.0 interceptions (114.7 rating).
Career in Domes: 25/40, 286 yards, 1.6 touchdowns, 1.2 interceptions (85.6 rating).
Flacco has been on an absolute tear as of late. He threw eight touchdowns compared to zero interceptions in Baltimore's run to the Super Bowl, outplaying Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the process. On the surface, it appears that Flacco will be going up against an extremely difficult 49ers' pass defense. That's just on the surface.
The 49ers have yielded nearly 290 passing yards in their last five games as Dashon Goldson and Carlos Rogers struggled a great deal in coverage. Baltimore has a clear advantage over the top with Boldin and Smith.
On the other hand, Flacco will have a difficult time finding his tight ends, Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson between the hashes due to the presence of the two best cover backers in the NFL, NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis on San Francisco's side.
Projected Statistics: 23/37, 275 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
Ray Rice, Running Back
Career Postseason Averages: 17 rushes, 69 yards, 3 receptions, 28 yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
2012 Postseason Averages: 21 rushes, 82 yards, 1 reception, 23 yards and 0.7 touchdowns.
As you can see above, Baltimore has made somewhat of a point to get the ball to Rice on the ground more than in previous postseasons. That being said, he is only touching the ball two more times, on average, this year. If Baltimore wants to actually build some type of balance on offense and keep San Francisco's defense guessing, Rice is going to have to touch the ball in the high 20's, not in the low 20's. Those six or seven touches might make a difference in Super Bowl XLVII.
The 49ers, despite having one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL, have yielded an average of 104 rushing yards in their last four outings. This might not seem like a big deal, but considering that San Francisco yielded over 100 yards on the ground in just seven of its previous 32 games, it is noteworthy.
Will Rice run rough shot over the 49ers' run defense? Of course not. Instead, you can expect him to put up average running back numbers in this one. Only time will tell whether it will be enough.
Projected Stats: 23 rushes, 85 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards and 0 touchdown.
Torrey Smith, Wide Receiver
2012 Regular Season Averages: 3 receptions, 53 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Career Postseason Averages: 3 receptions, 58 yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
2013 Postseason Averages: 3 receptions, 66 yards and 0.7 touchdowns.
As you can see, Smith picks it up a bit in terms of yards and touchdowns in the playoffs. While that could mean something heading into Super Bowl XLVII, it is also important to note that his sample size (five career playoff games) really isn't that big. Smith offers Baltimore a huge advantage down the field, agianst a San Francisco' pass defense that has struggled on deep passes as of late.
He, however, isn't a consistent threat. Instead, Baltimore will have to rely on Smith stretching the field and gaining separation at the line. This is where matchups come into play. Will San Francisco put its best bump and run corner, Chris Culliver, on Smith? I will be intrigued to see this. If not, the talented youngster could create a ton of problems for Tarell Brown, who was beaten multiple times by Julio Jones in the NFC Championship Game.
Projected Statistics: 4 receptions, 78 yards and one touchdown.
Anquan Boldin, Wide Receiver
2012 Regular Season Averages: 4 receptions, 61 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
Career Postseason Averages: 5 receptions, 70 yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
2013 Postseason Averages: 5 receptions, 92 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Here is one example of a veteran guy that steps up and makes plays when it counts the most. He is putting up an average of 31 more yards in the playoffs than he did during the regular season. Overall, Boldin's production seems to go up a great deal in the playoffs.
Again, it is all about matchups here. If San Francisco decides to bump him with either Culliver or Carlos Rogers, Boldin might have some issues gaining the necessary separation at the line, if not he could find seems on intermediate routes and down the field.
As it is, don't expect San Francisco to be able to completely shut this talented receiver down. He will make his plays and show Baltimore that it will have to find a way to retain him following the Super Bowl. What remains to be seen, is if he will be able to put up a huge game.
Projected Statistics: 5 receptions, 90 yards and one touchdown.
X-Factor
Bernard Pierce, Running Back
2012 Regular Season Averages: 7 rushes, 33 yards and 0.01 touchdowns.
Postseason Averages: 9 rushes, 56 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
This rookie running back is a huge key for Baltimore. It will ask Pierce to come in and spell Rice at times, looking for the same type of production that it saw against both the Indianapolis Colts (wildcard round) and New England Patriots (championship round). If that happens, Baltimore will be in place.
With that in mind, a 14-yard performance like we saw against the Denver Broncos (divisional round) will put more onus on Rice to create the necessary balance on offense against an elite San Francisco' front seven. I am looking at something in between.
Projected Stats: 8 rushes, 40 yards and zero touchdowns.
Other
Justin Tucker, Kicker, Statistical Projections: 3/3 FGS, 2/2 PATs