Now that it looks like EJ Manuel has gained a substantial lead in the Buffalo Bills' quarterback battle, focus might be starting to shift to how the rookie quarterback is going to perform as a first-year starter.
It goes without saying that we cannot expect the same level of production we saw from the likes of Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III last season.
A better starting off point, at least in terms of overall production, would be Miami Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill. The Texas A&M product surprised a great deal of people who believed he'd struggle as a rookie last season. Tannehill put up nearly 3,300 passing yards and tallied one more total touchdown (14) than interceptions (13). The issue with Tannehill is that he struggled getting into the end zone, which had a negative impact on his fantasy performance. Overall, the Dolphins' quarterback finished as the No. 24 ranked fantasy quarterback; making him a bottom-tier QB1 option last year.
Our opinion of Tannehill and Manuel both being "raw" quarterbacks is probably where the comparisons end. In reality, the Florida State rookie has a much better supporting cast around him.
While Stevie Johnson is currently riding the pine due to injury, he can act as a legit No. 1 wide receiver for Manuel in the passing game. The sixth-year receiver has put up 1,000 yards in each of the last three seasons. He is also averaging about 5.3 receptions per game during that span. There is a minor issue with consistency as it relates to Johnson. According to Pro Football Focus, he has yet to catch 60 percent of the passes thrown in his direction over these past three seasons. His production will likely decrease as his targets also go down.
Speaking of targets, Manuell will not be throwing the ball 35 times a game. New head coach Doug Marrone is expected to utilize a run-based West Coast offense, which will rely heavily on C.J. Spiller. While that isn't the greatest of news for Manuel, his dynamic young running back should help him out a great deal.
The Clemson product has tallied just 106 receptions in his first three seasons, but a lot of that had to do with Ryan Fitzpatrick's struggles in finding checkdowns. Spiller averaged the same amount of receptions in less games in college. In addition, Manuel doesn't shy away from using his running backs in the passing game. His running backs averaged seven receptions per game with the Seminoles last year.
Manuel will also be able to grow with a talented set of young receivers. Robert Woods fills in as a possession-type in the form of Michael Crabtree. He catches nearly everything thrown his way and was among the most pro-ready receivers in the 2013 NFL draft class.
Marquise Goodwin might not be as polished of a route runner as Woods, but he can provide that deep threat that Buffalo's offense has been missing over the past couple seasons. Goodwin might have only averaged 12.1 yards per reception at Texas, but a lot of that had to do with the Longhorns offensive game plan.
One huge wildcard here is going to be undrafted rookie free agent Da'Rick Rogers, who was one of the four most talented receivers in April's draft. However, it's important to note that Rodgers is likely battling for a depth position rather than a spot in the regular receiver rotation.
As with every young quarterback, pass protection is going to be huge for Manuel. Bills' quarterbacks were sacked just 30 times last season, which was one of the lowest numbers in the NFL. Considering that Fitzpatrick struggled making the reads and held on to the ball too long, this is a great sign for Manuel. What isn't a great sign is the loss of Andy Levitre, the best pass-protecting guard in the league from a year ago.
If he is able to receive the necessary protection upfront, Manuel has the athletic ability and talent to be a successful Year 1 starter. That's going to be key here.
Manuel's fantasy production this season will mostly be through the air. He averaged just 2.8 yards per rush attempt at Florida State. So, don't expect him to be that "new breed" of quarterback we have seen enter the NFL over the past few seasons.
In the end, Manuel's fantasy ceiling this season is likely as a top-17 quarterback. He is someone you can rely on as a decent QB2 option in redraft leagues, especially if you don't value that position too much.
Moving forward, the young quarterback is likely going to end up being a top-10 fantasy quarterback. It makes sense to add him to the mix in dynasty leagues if you are relying on an older quarterback such as Peyton Manning or Tom Brady to be your QB1 option.
Look for 3,500 total yards, 20 total scores and about 12 interceptions from Manuel should he start all 16 games this season.