It's about to get real in The Bayou this morning when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) take on the New Orleans Saints (5-8). While neither team stands a great chance to make the postseason in the ultra-competitive NFC, this game has a tremendous feel to it for those of you who love scoring.
It is also an important game for those of us currently in the fantasy football playoffs. After all, both teams are absolutely loaded with impact fantasy players.
Let's take a look at what this game might have to offer.
A Struggling Drew Brees vs No. 32 Ranked Pass Defense
Normally one would have to even think about this matchup. Drew Brees has been one of the top three fantasy quarterbacks over the course of the last five years. While 2012 has been somewhat of a down season for the future Hall of Fame quarterback, he still ranks No. 5 at his position in fantasy points.
The primary issue that I see with Brees is that he seems to feel he needs to do everything himself. This is evident with the way Brees has been forcing passes and turning the ball over. He has thrown three touchdowns compared to nine interceptions in his last three games, a span that represents the worst stretch of his career. Brees is only averaging 12 fantasy points during that three-game stretch.
He is, however, going up against a Tampa Bay' pass defense that has been killed by quarterbacks all season long. The Buccaneers have yielded 300-plus passing yards seven times this season; including a 377 yard performance from Brees in Week 7.
Equally as important, Tampa Bay is without its two starting corners from the start of the season. Aqib Talib was traded back in November, while Eric Wright is serving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's Substance Abuse Policy. Don't expect the Buccaneers to be able to do much in terms of stopping Brees here. I am expecting over 350 passing yards and three scores en route to a 25-plus point performance.
Josh Freeman vs Disastrous New Orleans' Secondary
This is where it gets interesting. Freeman was nowhere near a QB1 option at the start of the season, but seems to have progressed a great deal in his fourth NFL season. He ranks 11th among quarterbacks in fantasy points and sixth in touchdowns with 25.
Freeman seems to have hit his stride with 2012 free agent signee Vincent Jackson who has also been among the most surprising fantasy performers at his position this season. Nearly 36 percent of Freeman's passing yards have gone to Jackson. Expect this connection to continue against what has to be one of the worst defenses that we have seen in the NFL in quite some time. Freeman will surpass his averages in yards, touchdowns and points in this one. Look for 280 yards and three scores.
Vincent Jackson Against Jabari Greer
Jackson put up 216 yards and 27 fantasy points against Greer and the Saints in a Week 7 loss. You can anticipate the same type of performance from the No. 4 overall fantasy receiver. I don't see how New Orleans is going to be able to defend against the deep pass here.
Look for Jackson to tally a minimum of 150 receiving yards and a score. This makes him a legit top three fantasy wide receiver in Week 15.
Jimmy Graham Against Mark Barron and Ronde Barber
This is where it gets really interesting. While Tampa Bay possesses the worst pass defense in the NFL, it sure does have a decent safety tandem up the middle. Both Barron and Barber are playing at relatively high levels at different points in their careers. Making the transition from corner to free safety has been somewhat seemless for Barber. Meanwhile, Barron is the type of player that may struggle in coverage over the top, but isn't afraid to stick his head in there against elite tight ends. He has the ability to throw Graham off his route if that is the scheme that the Buccaneers decide to utilize.
The Buccaneers are yielding an average of 54 yards to tight ends this season, which is right around the league average. For his part, Graham is having somewhat of a down season after a breakout 2011 performance. He is on pace to tally less than 1,000 receiving yards and has scored eight touchdowns through 13 games. While those are stellar overall numbers for most players at his position, fantasy owners had to be expecting more.
I don't envision Drew Brees being able to, or wanting to, go in Graham's direction as much as we have seen in the past. After all, Tampa Bay is yielding an average of 220 yards to receivers this season. Expect Brees to go in the direction of Marques Colston and Lance Moore a lot.