The Fantastic Fantasy Football Top 25

By Matt Rittle on Tuesday, August 28th 2012
The Fantastic Fantasy Football Top 25

1) Arian Foster – The consensus number one pick tops everyones' chart for a reason.

2) Ray Rice – Rice has a long history of being a stud in accumulating yardage. Last year he added the touchdowns when the team let him be the goal line back. Nothing changed from last year there.

3) LeSean McCoy – He is a complete stud. He should see a small regression in his TD total this year…but if he “only” scores 13 are you really going to complain?

4) Darren McFadden – This Oakland Raider' may be injury prone, but he is not as injury prone as last year leads us to believe. His first three years McFadden played 12-13 games a year – just shy of the league average for running backs. Ask yourself this: If he played 13 games last year (instead of 7,) where would you rank him? Better yet, if you knew he’d play all 16 games this year where would you rank him?

5) Chris Johnson – A guy who can somewhat blow off a year and still gain over 1400 yards is okay with me. His camp reports are awesome and people concerned with his performance in the preseason games would do well to remember that he had a sub-two YPC in the preseason of his record breaking year. For those out there who can’t summon any Johnson love, just ask yourself how many healthy 300-carry backs there available for drafting.

6) Aaron Rodgers – The clear cut No. 1 fantasy QB coming into the season would be ranked higher if not for all the RB injuries lately. I wouldn’t draft him higher than fourth, unless you’re in a 2 QB format. However, the scarcity of solid RB picks drives up RB price, dropping Rodgers to here.

7) Tom Brady – Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Giselle Bundchen.  Plus, it’s Tom freaking Brady. Need I say more?

8) Matt Forte – Forte has never been good at short yardage so the presence of Bush shouldn’t scare you too much.  History tells us that Forte has one of the highest floors of any back after the first three or four are off the board. With all the gambles and risks this year, it’s hard to argue with that reliability.

9) DeMarco Murray – Feature back? Check. High-powered offense? Check. Can run inside the tackles? Check.  Involved in the passing game? Big check. What’s not to like?  If he had a longer track record or a better offensive line, he’d probably be ranked higher.

10) Calvin Johnson – I’m going to endure some hate from people for ranking him this “low.” I know. Even though you won’t believe me, I’ll go ahead and tell you: I love Calvin Johnson as much as you do. I just think people are undervaluing RB’s this year.  I’ll also add that to draft him in the top five is to believe that he’ll at least repeat last year’s numbers.

11) Drew Brees – I almost put him ahead of Calvin, but didn’t want to hear the ridicule I’d get for ranking Calvin outside of the first round of 10 teamers. If you pick Brees with the 11th overall, consider yourself lucky.

12) Maurice Jones-Drew – Last year Jones-Drew didn’t get much fantasy love. Yet, coming off surgery, he still ended up leading the league in rushing. This holdout may be getting ugly, but Jones-Drew is a gamer and will produce when it counts. Plus, at pick 12,  how much more talent do you want to draft?

13) Jamaal Charles – Charles seems to be 100 percent healthy. If that was more believable he’d probably be ranked higher. I think what you’re looking at here is a solid RB2 with upside.   

14)  Ryan Mathews – Charles vs Mathews is a pretty tough call for me. I know some won’t like how I’m mentioning the “injury-prone” and “already injured” Mathews over “solid producers” like Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Mathew Stafford among others, but RB scarcity drives up the prices on one of the few guys you can bank of to give you top 5-10 numbers. When he is healthy, of course.

15) Fred Jackson – You’ll note how I’m clearing out all the worthwhile running back options in my rankings before I go to the “more obvious” and “safer” picks of some QB’s and TE’s. This is on purpose. It’s not that I love Jackson. It’s that he’s a great running back in a year when there’s not a ton of those available to be drafted.

16) Jimmy Graham – I love this guy. Graham gets more targets than Gronkowski as the clear No. 1 option on his team. I wouldn’t reach for him – because (tired of hearing it yet?) RB’s are so important this year, meaning you have to draft them early and often.  However, Graham is a stud you’d be lucky to have and this is about fair market value in my mind.

17) Cam Newton – I’ll be honest, I don’t love Newton as much as most people.  However once I realized that his numbers last year - without his rushing TD's - would put him in the top five QB rankings most seasons, I bought in. No reason not to love him this season.

18) Matthew Stafford – Not much to say here. If both Calvin and he stay healthy this year, tough not to think you don’t have a top quarterback. Model of consistency, as well.

19) Rob Gronkowski – Hypothetical, Gronkowski has a SIGNIFCANTLY worse performance than last year’s. Say he only does 800 yards and 9 touchdowns. While that represents an enormous regression from last year, those numbers are probably still good enough to be second or third at his position. 

20) Julio Jones – Seems poised for a breakout year, and he was already pretty good last year.

21) Darren Sproles – I don’t think Sproles can do better than last year, but I don’t think he’ll do much worse either. At this point in the draft, I’m valuing running backs who will give me production I know I can count on. Sproles offers you that, while most other backs still on the board can’t.

22) Trent Richardson – How can I possibly rank Richardson below Sproles?  I think of it this way:  I am pretty sure Sproles will be a solid RB2.  I hope Richardson will be a RB1, but I don’t actually know. His knee injury and surgery in the preseason freak me out a little or he’d be ranked higher. Also, the Cleveland Browns offensive line (or offense) doesn’t excite me. Still you sign me up for Ricahrdson at this point. Enormous upside at this price.

23) Steven Jackson – Pro:  Jeff Fischer. Con:  History suggests that backs with his mileage entering their 8th year tend to fall of a cliff. The result is either he outperforms this draft position in a bit of a renaissance year or he is injured and struggles to get through the season.

24) Marshawn Llynch – I’m not sure why, but I just can’t get behind Llynch this year, and that was before we were reminded of his off-field behavior and back concerns. However, he is a legit feature back in the NFL and Russell Wilson only helps him. 

25) Brandon Marshall – I nearly ranked AJ Green here, but decided to go with the guy on a better offense with a more developed and proven quarterback. As a Bears fan, I have high hopes for the Cutler and Marshall reunion tour. I see Marshall as having both an incredibly high floor and ceiling this year

Even if you disagree, I hope my thoughts have helped you form yours

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