It was around this time last year that the NFL world was speculating on the future of free agent wide receiver Wes Welker. Fast forward one year later and not much has changed. As the free agency period is fast approaching, pundits everywhere are speculating on Welker’s future. Most experts seem to fall into two camps: the one’s that believe Welker is a product of the system and the ones that believe he would thrive on any team. The experts are going to have their opinions, but there is only one opinion that matters, the opinion of the New England Patriots.
In typical New England fashion, the Patriots have been quiet about the Welker situation and have not formally expressed an opinion about it. Many believe they are unwilling to pay Welker’s asking price and will let him test the free agent market. Welker made around $9.5 million last year and New England is hesitant to pay that much again. If history is any indicator New England will let him walk and try to find a cheaper replacement. Many feel that this move would not be beneficial for New England because Welker’s talent is not easily replaceable.
The long term signing of Welker is a risky proposition. Welker turns 32 this year and not many wide receivers can produce at an elite level into theirs 30’s. Last year Welker was in the top half of the league in dropped passes. Not many teams are willing to risk such an obscene amount of money on a diminutive receiver with those shortcomings. Pun intended. The Patriots can’t risk a mistake of that magnitude if they are to get back to the Super Bowl. There is no doubt Welker makes the Patriot’s a better team, but $9.5 million better? I doubt it. My gut tells me Bill Belichick feels the same way or else he would have signed Welker last year when he had the chance.
Welker leaving New England and playing for another team is far from certain. The issue may not be as black and white as it appears. Creative contract language may play a big part in Welker returning to the Patriots. Now, I still don’t think Welker will get the long term deal he is seeking but there is the possibility that the Patriots bring him back for a shorter two or three year deal. If the two sides can agree to terms, then this would present the best option for both parties.
Last year the Patriots used the franchise tag on Welker, which as I stated earlier cost the team around $9.5 million. This year it is highly unlikely the team does that again. If the Patriots were to use the franchise tag on Welker again, it would cost the team approximately $11.4 million, about $2 million more than last year. There is no way the frugal Patriots invest that much cap space on anybody not named Tom Brady.
The Patriots made it the AFC title game last season. They almost have all the pieces needed to get back to the top. This only emphasizes the importance of making the right call on Welker. Even if the Patriots over pay for Welker, he still will make the team better than if he left to another team. However, the longer-term salary cap ramifications could severely impact the Patriots chances of returning to greatness. The chess match between Welker and the Patriots is heating up, but the fact still remains, if New England passes on Welker there are plenty of other teams hungry to get their hands on the shifty slot man. It’s your move New England.