Play fantasy football for long enough, and it happens. You develop emotions towards players. It feels so real. You hate a certain player or love this other dude. It all stems from times they failed us on our teams or blew up against us.  A lot of experts seem to get attached to players. Maybe it’s stubbornness, but I think a lot of just has to do with emotions. We fall in love with players or develop hatred towards them…which is okay until we let those emotions shade our picture of reality a little darker than we should. So that’s the point of this article and series. I’m going to tell you about a nameless player. Let’s take our emotions and histories out of it and try to see what the real value of a guy is. 

In this edition of "anonymous player stats" I’d like to tell you the story about a wide receiver with 29 career games under their belt.  In these 29 career games played so far, they have accumulated 1631 yards. This equates to 56 yards a game which would be roughly 900 yards over a full season. Given the fact that the first dozen of those games were in his rookie year, that’s a pretty reasonable average. He’s relatively productive in terms of touchdowns – having 15. This averages out to .5 touchdowns per game or eight over a full season. So if we aggregate a fictional 16 game season based off their career averages, we could pencil him in for 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. Not too shabby.

For sake of comparison, let’s compare those fake numbers to the last few years of fantasy outputs:

In 2011… His 900 yards would have ranked 28th among WRs. His eight touchdowns would have put him in a nine way tie ranging most of the teens. Cumulatively, those stats give him enough fantasy points to rank right around WR #20.  In terms of point differentials, he’s much closer to WR#30 than he is WR#10. 

2010 paints a very similar picture. He’d have been 23rd on the yardage list and in a four way tie with eight touchdowns – right around 15th.  Again, his total fantasy points with those stats would have put him right around WR #19.  Again, those numbers put him only slightly better than WR #30.

Interestingly, he finished right around WR #20 in 2011. His highest finish to date, in fantasy circles.

Here’s what bothers me though…He only has one 100 yard game in his career.  One.  His career record for yardage in one game is 104. His next highest yardage total after that is only 90.  For the sake of being crazy, I actually counted the number of games he had with 80+ yards. There were six - only three of which were in the last 14 games. His highest yardage total in a game without a touchdown is 84. He only has two multi-touchdown games in his career which is a bizare strength of his in fantasy circles, I guess.  He spreads his touchdown production out more consistently than others perhaps.  

So basically what we’re looking at here…is a guy whose fantasy value is directly dependent upon his ability to get into the endzone. Ideally, I like to own guys who have value outside of touchdown scoring….maybe they’ll get a touchdown one week – but maybe they’ll get 100 yards the next week without a score. It helps taper the effect of the bad weeks.

Now, it’s not always a safe assumption that what has always been will always be.  He could get worse.  He could get better.  If you asked me to guess, I’d say these numbers only improve as he develops.  If you’re in a dynasty league, I would definitely hold – if not try to buy.  However, for us redraft folks… Someone who will put up 4-6 points most weeks with the occasional double digit game… Sounds like a decent WR #3, right?   I guess I called him WR #20 earlier (in both 2011 and 2010 – using his career averages), so by definition he’d either be a low-end WR #2 or a high end WR #3 depending on your league size.  However his asking price on draft day was much higher than a mere flex player. 

Ladies and gentlefolk of redraft leagues…I present to you, Dez Bryant.

Interesting addition to this article…I wrote this before Monday Night Football last night (in week four) and decided not to update the stats here.  In fairness, he did set a career high in yardage last night with 105  - and did so without a touchdown grab. He also caught a two-point conversion.  Those waiting for his break out have this to look at as a possible positive sign. Funny thing though…in a night that he set a career high in yardage, most people seem to be railing on him for his lack of concentration, drops and inconsistencies. To me this is Dez’s career in a nut-shell.  Incredible talent and upside, but just can’t seem to get that mental component figured out to go along with his upside.

If Dez Bryant ever got his act together and dedicated himself to the game, he would be a top five option – if not better….but looking at these career averages helps you see a player who isn’t quite the bill of goods that the mainstream fantasy community has sold us on.  This deeper look into Dez Bryant helps me realize that most of his value comes from his upside and talent – rather than the production we can actually count on from him.

If you’re okay with him performing as a low-end WR #2 or high-end WR #3 on your team, than by all means – hold him and hope he taps into even ¼ of his upside.  However, if you are counting on him to do better than that, I would be try to package him together in trades and take advantage of his name recognition.  It’s likely you’re not giving up the value that others think you are.