Quick, somebody slap me. Quick, give me one more. Ouch, stings a bit, but most definitely worth it. You see for a moment, there was no realistic outcome in my reality that could confirm its actually the middle of July, because of it really is indeed the halfway point of summer, than that means, yep, you guess it, football season is right around the corner.
Already that time of year to over pay on some cheat sheets and magazines that will be ripped and torn by the time your draft day rolls around. That time of year to overdose on mock drafts, put your keepers away in a stash, and finally put last season’s disappointments in the trash.
Must be football season, and while you’ve been hibernating your winter away with some Netflix, True Detective, and late night QVC commercials (don’t worry we don’t judge), we here at eDraft have been working around the clock, crunching (Cheetos, lots of Cheetos) and every 2014 statistic we could find to lay out a plethora of projections, rankings, and guidelines for you to follow, to lead you literally to the doorstep of your league's fantasy football championship (okay not literally, but you get it).
Here’s your first tip, championship rosters aren’t built with first round picks, and although it's always fun to grab the league's best at his position early in the night of your draft, the glue between the cracks of your roster is what will hold together your team. Were talking about the guys you’ll get when everyone is packing up their things and heading to their car. The players that have third-round potential, but are falling in your lap in the seventh.
Two years ago in my 16-team league auction (this is where 99% of you will skip down to the fun stuff, its cool I don’t have feelings or anything), the three guys I spent the most money on weren’t on my starting lineup by years end, and not because I traded them away for something better. Julio Jones (ACL tear), Trent Richardson (benched), and Robert Griffin (traded for peanuts) all were a distant memory by the halfway point. Luckily, while many of my peers were bragging about the meat and potatoes of their team, I took Andy Dalton, Zac Stacy, and whoever Peyton Manning's tight-end was going to be (his name ended up being Julius Thomas). Did that turn out to be luckier than a four-leaf clover? No doubt. But, it shows that your late-round fliers can be easily just as important as your first three-picks, if not more important. Oh, did I mention, I won that league? Oops.
Lets get to a few guys that are set up to give you much more value than where they are being projected at this point in the offseason.
Mike Wallace, Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings
Let me start by saying I haven’t touched Wally World (do people still call him that?) for the last three years. A slight decline in his numbers after Wallace started to age and received a lucrative contract was more obvious than Oprah gaining and losing weight (fat, thin, fat, thin, pick one and go with it). However, a fresh start in Minnesota under an offensive coach that will demand 100% out of him from him in Norv Turner could be exactly what the doctor ordered to revive his fantasy career back to the top tier.
The mere fact fantasy owners have been burned, scorched, and torched by Wallace almost every week thanks to his inconsistent play in Miami is exactly why he will be going for dirt cheap this year. He’s like that girl in high school who was a solid 8, and all your buddies had a fun week with her, and now no one wants touch, talk, or even look at her. That’s you Wally. Right now his average draft position in a standard 12-team league is mid way through the sixth round, and is the 32th wide out being taken. That’s a tremendous value for a guy who still has 4.26 speed and can get your team a quick six on any touch.
I’m not here to fool you into thinking Wallace will be seeing 12 targets a game. Uncle Norv will continue to use Adrian Peterson as the focal point of his offense, and will certainly keep his offensive focus on a smash-mouth physical run first football team, as he always does. However, Wallace will be used in a variety of creative ways both as an inside and outside receiver, and the Vikings will also find ways to get him into open space taking advantage of his acceleration and speed.
As we learned in Pittsburgh Wallace isn’t meant to be running over the middle, and for the Vikings he won’t need to. The emergence of Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright will help bring balance to the offense, and second year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is expected to make some big strides heading into year two.
The thought of Wallace and Bridgewater almost seems more enticing in practice than on paper, as you start to understand how well Wallace can still stretch the field. Wallace is in a much more ideal situation in Minnesota as they will maximize his strengths by taking advantage of eight and nine-men box fronts and stretching the field vertically, even if it means not touching the ball as much.
Its quality of touches over quantity for Wallace here, and that's exactly why we like him as a great sixth-round option. Remember, things change from year-to-year in fantasy football, but the philosophy of having a stash of big time playmakers on your roster should always be a focal point during your draft, and throughout your season.
Amari Cooper, Wide Receiver, Oakland Raiders
Michael Crabtree, Kenbrell Thompkins, Seth Roberts, Kris Durham
Seriously, you need me to keep going?
The four names listed above aren’t some sort of sick and twisted joke, they’re literally the Raiders starting group of wide receivers. Enter Cooper stage left. Whether you like Cooper as a pure receiver or not (which you should), the fact remained the team desperately needed a play-making receiver in the worst way.
Cooper is one of the few, if not the only, rookie wide receiver that will walk into camp as his quarterbacks number one option. Sure, he may have to “battle” one of his veteran peers during training camp, and will likely have his share or rookie lumps in practices along the way, but make no mistake by week one, Derek Carr will be locked on to him.
Carr, who is entering his second-year in the league, has never played and thrown to a target that has the combination of route running, hands, and acceleration that Cooper offers. His best weapon since entering the NFL was James Jones, an overachieving two-route target. Carr, who has a knack for overthrowing his targets, now has a pure pass catcher that he can throw it up to and have confidence he can bring it down.
Not only will Cooper be a threat from the 20 to the 20, but also when the Raiders are in the red zone is when I expect Cooper to secretly have just as much success. While he may be listed at just 6’1” 211 pounds, trust me when I say Cooper is as polished as they come and can win nearly any one-on-one matchup thrown his way.
Last year Carr threw 599 attempts, taking that number for projection purposes, and giving Cooper just 20% of those attempts, which is on the low side considering Carr’s other options, Cooper will have 120 balls thrown his way. Again, with Crabtree as another primary target, and not much else, those numbers are on the soft side.
If Cooper could pull down 85 of those balls, it would be considered a monster rookie campaign, and a huge player to have in your PPR leagues. Based off those target projections and his ability to do it all, catching ten touchdown passes doesn’t seem far-fetched either.
Want additional queso on your burger to seal the deal? Cooper’s current average draft projection is 68, or the seventh-round in a standard 12-team league. I’m jumping all over him in the sixth-round just to make sure he’s on my team, and we would advise you to do the same.
Cam Newton, Quarterback, Carolina Panthers
In this case we have Newton as a sleeper based more off of where he’s been going in the latest mock drafts. One of the top-5 quarterbacks taken last year, Newton is now falling well past guys like Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and even Tony Romo, as owners have been burned by him once too many times, but If the phrase buy low, sell high, is still in fashion then Cam Newton is the new spokesperson for the slogan when it comes to fantasy points.
Now here's where I need to clarify. If you're in a league where passing touchdowns are worth six-points, then guess what, Newton isn’t your guy. However, in a standard 4-point or less passing league than there is great value here with the man they call Superman, who will do a lot of damage on the ground.
The deck is stacked against him. His passing yards have declined every year, as well as his rushing attempts and yards. His rushing touchdowns were a measly five in 2014 and just six in 2013, and now his starting wide receivers don’t know whether to make you laugh or cry.
But, it’s Cam. If we’ve learned one thing about Newton and all his over the top flashiness and drama, it’s that we shouldn’t bet against him, as he always find a way to produce, and this year will be no different. Again, Newton will have two solid, and more than capable targets in Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin to help take some pressure off of him, and in a power run scheme, two legitimate receiving weapons is really all you need.
The rest of Newton’s damage will come on the ground, where coaches have kept him on a verbal leash so to speak, fearing injury, and forcing him to continue progressing as a passer. However, now that they’ve paid this man his money, the front office will pressure the coaching staff to get their moneys worth out of the multi million-dollar man.
Expect Newton to bust free from his leash this year and get back to monster numbers with his feet. His rookie year Newton ran for 16 touchdowns, and while I'm not ready to peg him to repeat those stats, I am here to tell you the measly five from last season will be turned to dust.
With an average draft projection in the early seventh-round, I have a hard time grabbing a guy like Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannehill, when I can wait around 15 picks later for Newton. Sure, he is inconsistent and will make you want to throw your remote literally through your TV, but don’t worry, by the time it's all said and done Superman will come to your rescue.