With the Second U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals refusing to hear Tom Brady's case, the New England Patriots quarterback is left pondering an appeal to the United States Supreme Court. It's an issue that stems from the NFL's suspension of Brady following his alleged involvement in the Deflategate scandal back in January of 2015.
Even if the land's highest court decides to hear Brady's appeal, it likely won't be in time for the start of the 2016 season, meaning Jimmy Garoppolo will likely be under center for the first four games of the season.
This will definitely push Brady's preseason fantasy ADP down quite a bit. Before Wednesday's ruling, there was some hope that he might actually be on the field for a full 16-game slate. This had Brady's ADP as the eigth quarterback off the board in the early sixth round of 12-team leagues. Now that he's almost certain to miss a quarter of the season, that ADP is going to drop.
Still, when it comes to looking at Brady's fantasy potential minus those four games, you might very well be able to pull a coup on the rest of your league. The idea here would be to wait it out until Round 9 or Round 10, add Brady there, and go late-round QB strategy in Round 12 or 13 by picking up a Matthew Stafford or Marcus Mariota. You'd then start them for the first four weeks before turning to last year's second-ranked fantasy quarterback.
When looking at what Garoppolo might bring to the table in New England, it could also make sense to go with him for the first four weeks. While the third-year quarterback will likely see his ADP jump from its current status as a waiver-wire pick up to a late-round option, you'd still be finding a tremendous amount of value there.
We don't have much of a sample size to focus on when it comes to Garoppolo's experience in meaningful games. After all, he's attempted a total of 31 career regular season passes. We can, however, look at the competition he'd be going up against in the first four games. That's the best indicator of success when looking at how a young quarterback will perform over the short term.
Patriots First 4 Opponents (2015 Defensive Stats) | Opponent | Pass Yds | TD | INT | Ranking |
| Cardinals | 3,957 | 24 | 19 | 6th |
| Dolphins | 4,225 | 31 | 13 | 17th |
| Texans | 3,677 | 24 | 15 | 8th |
| Bills | 4,088 | 30 | 17 | 18th |
As you can see, there's definitely a mixed bag of competition here. Two of the Pats first four opponents ranked in the bottom half of the NFL against fantasy quarterbacks a season ago while the other two ranked in the top 10. Most fantasy owners out there probably wish it was more clear cut with New England either taking on four elite fantasy defenses or four of the worst in this category. Unfortunately, that's no longer the case.
The reality of the situation here is that you might have to stack three quarterbacks in the draft should you decide to go with the Pats two signal callers. Starting Garoppolo against Arizona in the season opener is most definitely a risky proposition, as is going with him Week 3 against the Texans.
Instead, the best advice we can give you here if you're going with Brady is to decide on another option in the latter rounds and insert him in as the QB1 until Brady returns. In this, there definitely are some solid options.
Opponent (2016 Ranking) | Player (ADP) | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
| Derek Carr (111) | Saints (32) | Falcons (7) | Titans (28) | Ravens (20) |
| Kirk Cousins (126) | Steelers (21) | Cowboys (12) | Giants (30) | Browns (29) |
| Matthew Stafford (144) | Colts (25) | Titans (28) | Packers (11) | Bears (26) |