Top 10 Current Fantasy Football Steals Based on ADP

By Jonathan Munshaw on Sunday, July 6th 2014
Top 10 Current Fantasy Football Steals Based on ADP

With just weeks to go before most fantasy drafts take place, the final tweaks to draft boards are being made. Don’t let your league-mates get ahead of you and be sure to do your research before your draft.

In order to get the leg up before the season even starts, check out these 10 players who are great value picks in drafts based on where they are currently going in standard leagues.

 

10. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Average draft position: 111th overall, 40th wide receiver

If you play fantasy football long enough, you’re going get burned by Dwayne Bowe. It seems like every year he ends up falling below expectations. But, there’s no reasons his expectations should be set this year for him to be the 40th-ranked receiver. Bowe is still the top passing target in Kansas City, and owners can expect him to carry over the five touchdowns but be closer to 800 yards. In 10-team leagues, he presents flex upside while being drafted as a WR4.

 

9. Terrance West, RB, Cleveland Browns

ADP: 103, RB35

Don’t look at West as just a handcuff for Ben Tate. If Josh Gordon is suspended for any amount of time, the Browns will likely go to a run-first team, and Tate isn’t an every-down back. As long as Tate is healthy, West is still a good option for a backup running back, with higher upside than Pierre Thomas and Brandin Cooks, who are both going higher than him, at the flex spot. Tate is also going to get hurt at some point in the season, and West could take the starting job over if he’s able to showcase his skills.

 

8. Chris Johnson, RB, New York Jets

ADP: 58, RB23

Fifty-third overall is a good spot for Johnson, but he is far more likely to finish in the top 15 among running backs than Toby Gerhart (56th overall) and Rashad Jennings (51). Bilal Powell could take Johnson’s red zone touches away, but he had the same issue in Tennessee last year with Shonn Greene, who scored four touchdowns. Johnson has never not had a 1,000-yard season, and although he’s getting up in age, his track record is far too good for him to be going behind Gerhart and Jennings.

 

7. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts

ADP: 53, WR23

In just his third year in the league, Hilton is a lock to be an every-week WR2 in 10-teaam leagues (and obviously in deeper leagues). As the 23rd receiver, Cordarrelle Patterson and Roddy White are both going ahead of Hilton. Hilton is in a much better offense than Patterson, and at this point in his career, injuries are becoming a concern for White. Hilton has only missed one game in his first two years, and went for 1,083 yards last year and seven touchdowns in his rookie campaign. The Colts don’t know what they’ll get out of Reggie Wayne this year, and Hilton will be Andrew Luck’s go-to target, and he’ll break 1,000 yards and get at least six touchdowns.

 

6. Trent Richardson, RB, Indianapolis Colts

ADP: 77, RB29

Out of all the running backs on this list, Richardson by far has the best opportunity. With Donald Brown out of Indy, Richardson is the feature back for the Colts. He now has a full offseason with the Colts to get more incorporated with the offense, and all reports are indicating that he is in better shape down than he was last year when he was traded to Indianapolis. Richardson presents great RB2 upside because of the opportunity, and even at 77th overall, is still a great flex play.

 

5. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Miami Dolphins

ADP: 91, RB32

For more on Moreno, check out my piece on him from earlier in the week. But to summarize, Moreno has a track record of solid fantasy performance even without Peyton Manning as his quarterback, and people seem to forget that Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas were completely flat last year for the Dolphins. As long as Moreno stays healthy, he has high flex/RB2 upside.

 

4. Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

ADP: 136, QB17

In 10-team leagues, Dalton is even on the fringe of being a backup quarterback. I’m on board with questioning how far he can make it as a quarterback in the league, but from a fantasy perspective, I don’t understand the hate on Dalton. He has A.J. Green as his top target, and he was the fifth ranked fantasy quarterback last year. At this spot, Dalton is a great backup fantasy quarterback who can easily come in on easy matchups and win you games or fill in if the starter gets injured. No one who had six games with three or more passing touchdowns should be going outside the top 100.

 

3. Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins

ADP: 93, TE10

Tight end is a weird position to try to predict, but as the 10th tight end, we can at least be sure that Reed will surpass his current ADP. Redd has the upside to be a top six or seven tight end. Although he missed the latter half of last season, he had almost 500 yards in nine games. And with DeSean Jackson in Washington now, the Redskins will be passing the ball more, with Reed working over the middle. Robert Griffin III should also take a step forward this year, and Reed will have more yards than Greg Olsen and Kyle Rudolph, who are going ahead of him.

 

2. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers

ADP: 48, RB19

When someone is talking about a “steal” in a fantasy draft, someone going in the first five rounds seems like it’d be a little too high. But for Gore, RB19 is simply too low for him. Although Carlos Hyde and Kendall Hunter are on the roster, they are more long-term options in San Francisco rather than right now. In the last three years, the lowest Gore ever finished among fantasy backs is 13th. We keep counting Gore out, but this will be another year he surprises people and gets back into the top 15 among running backs.

 

1. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears

ADP: 98, QB14

After the top three quarterbacks, it’s a grab bag of where a quarterback might end up. But out of everyone in the second tier of quarterbacks, Cutler has the best chance to be a quarterback who posts 280 or so total fantasy points for the year. He has Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to throw to, and Matt Forte as a security blanket in the backfield. Because of his injury history, it’s best to take Cutler with a solid backup (Andy Dalton, anyone?) but last year, he matched his touchdown total from 2012 in four less games. Had Cutler played in all 16 games, he would have been on pace to be the ninth fantasy quarterback last year, and because of the weapons at his disposal, he’s the best value right now.

Note: All ADP rankings were from FantasyPros, and all stats were from our fantasy rankings unless otherwise noted. 

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