As we approach real-time fantasy football drafts in the upcoming weeks, some players are currently being selected in mock drafts higher than they actually deserve entering in to the 2014 NFL season. This list consists of 10 overrated fantasy football players whose average draft pick (ADP), has them being drafted higher than they will likely payout in fantasy rewards when the acutal season gets underway.
10. Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, Detroit Lions
As the fourth or fifth overall quarterback currently being drafted in mock drafts, usually in the fourth draft round, Stafford makes an ambitious selection at this position. Average draft picks show Stafford getting chosen quite often as the next quarterback following Drew Brees, which is overrating him prematurely thus far in the preseason.
In 2013, Stafford finished the season as the seventh ranked fantasy football quarterback. Had he not had 19 interceptions, he would have finished higher, as his 4,650 passing yards had him ranking third in this category. Stafford has quite a vast path to cover to decrease his interceptions and increase his overall fantasy football ranking in 2014.
Careful thought should be taken when it comes to drafting Stafford in 2014, as other quarterbacks such as Andrew Luck, and Cam Newton ranked ahead Stafford last season with far less turnovers.
9. Nick Foles, Quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles
Many fantasy football mock drafts show Foles being drafted also as the fourth or fifth quarterback off the board, sometimes ahead of Stafford. Foles was highly effective when he began fulfilling the starting quarterback duties for the Eagles, and was a fantasy football gem if you acquired him off the waivers last year.
It would be overly optimistic to believe that Foles, with just 16 total NFL games under his belt, will mirror his 2013 performance that closely in 2014. While he is an efficient quarterback, and he was exceptional at keeping his interceptions to just two in the 10 games he played last year, an average draft pick this high has Foles somewhat overrated approaching the 2014 season.
Keep in mind, Foles is without his No. 1 wide receiver, DeSean Jackson, so he will be building a rapport with Jeremy Maclin, who missed all last season due to injury and a couple of new rookies. Expectations that Foles will rank in the top five quarterbacks in 2014 should be tempered.
8. Matt Ryan, Quarterback, Atlanta Falcons
While the forecast might be looking somewhat sunnier for Ryan in 2014, choosing him as your starting quarterback over Colin Kaepernick and Tony Romo is overly optimistic at this point in time. Average draft picks show Ryan being chosen in the sixth round as approximately the seventh overall quarterback selected.
Ryan struggled immensely in 2013 to rank 15th among his fellow quarterbacks in fantasy points. Assuming the Falcons’ star receiver, Julio Jones returns healthy, Ryan’s value gets a boost, but realistically, I don’t see him finishing 2014 as the seventh highest ranking quarterback. Ryan is without his veteran tight end, Tony Gonzalez, and wide receiver, Roddy White’s production declined severely last season. Ryan has an uphill battle to fight in 2014, so those who consider drafting him should be patient while waiting for improved results to surface in 2014
7. Roddy White, Wide Receiver Atlanta Falcons
Speaking of White, seeing him selected in mock drafts as a second wide receiver choice entering into 2014 is extremely dicey. White is starting his 10th year in the NFL, and he showed major signs of wear and tear in 2013. His yards per reception decreased to 11.3, which is the lowest they’ve ever been since his start with the Falcons in 2005. What’s even worse was over the 13 games he played, he only managed three receiving touchdowns, as he caused fantasy owners grief week after week.
If people are looking for a miraculous comeback from White in 2014, they wll be headed for disappointment. White should return healthier than he started off last season, but WR2 expectations are a gamble at this point.
6. Percy Harvin, Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks
Harvin, just because he managed to finish a game and a half in 2013, and had some awesome plays during the Super Bowl, is now currently getting drafted in the beginning of the fifth round in mock drafts, mainly as a third wide receiver to rosters.
Keep in mind that Harvin only completed nine games in 2012 for his former team, the Minnesota Vikings. Definitely overrated as we near the start of the 2014 season, Harvin should be drafted with heavy consideration due to his knack for succumbing to injuries during the pre and regular season.
If you’re counting on Harvin in a three-receiver team to endure a solid season and ring in the fantasy points, he faces predictable challenges that may stand in the way of fully rewarding those who draft him.
5. Wes Welker, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos
Welker fell short in expectations last year in his first season playing with the Denver Broncos. Laden with ball drops and a couple of concussions, those who drafted Welker got a bit of a raw deal, as he finished 2013 ranked 23rd among wide receivers.
Approaching into 2014, it would appear people have inflated expectations for Welker, who according to average draft picks, is being selected in mid-round four as the overall 13th wide receiver in mock drafts. Welker will benefit some from the absence of wide receiver, Eric Decker, but the improvement in fantasy points will not be that drastic. Additionally, the team has signed five-year receiver, Emmanuel Sanders.
Sure as the sun rises, quarterback, Peyton Manning will keep passing to his two top targets, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas, leaving Welker a in the mix of many capable, and taller hands this season.
4. C.J. Spiller, Running Back, Buffalo Bills
Spiller, despite a season of ups and mainly downs in 2013, is currently being drafted as an RB2, coming off of draft boards in the second or third draft rounds. His fellow running back, who far who far out-ranked him last year, Fred Jackson, can be acquired many rounds later. With a healthy Jackson in the picture, Spiller will continue to split carries and it is quite risky to draft him in early draft rounds thinking he will reward RB1 or RB2 fantasy points.
Clearly the better draft bargain here is Jackson, who you can easily draft in round seven, and who will put a huge damper into Spiller’s inflated fantasy value heading into 2014.
3. Ryan Mathews, Running Back, San Diego Chargers
Fantasy drafters should not be fooled by Ryan entering into 2014. Ryan had a fluky-good season last year, finishing with 1,255 rush yards and six touchdowns. Some mock drafts show people selecting Ryan as their second running back. This is risky in the fact that Ryan has the tendancy to get injured, and the team has other capable running backs in Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown, who stand to take away some of Ryan’s goal line carries.
Ryan’s durability last year might falsely lead people to believe he’ll once again produce high-end RB2 results. The reality is Ryan should be drafted with flex point expectations for the 2014 season.
2. Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings
It’s hard to claim that Peterson is overrated approaching the 2014, but a lot of people still are choosing him as the overall first draft pick in current mock drafts. I would take this to mean that many folks out there believe that Peterson will outscore and outrank both fellow running backs, Jamaal Charles, and LeSean McCoy in 2014.
Unfortunately for Peterson, he dealt with some nagging injuries in 2013, which caused a decline in his fantasy value, forcing him to finish the season ranked eighth among the running backs. Something also to note is that Peterson’s yards per carry were down to 4.5 from his previous season where he averaged an incredible 6.0 yards per carry.
Peterson has been worked strenuously, and his 10,115 total rush yards over his past seven season could be starting to impact him. Unless Peterson gets the opportunity to increase his receiving yards which will improve his ranking upwards of what Charles and McCoy accomplished last year, expectations for Peterson should be suppressed for 2014.
1. Montee Ball, Running Back, Denver Broncos
Choosing Ball as my RB1 going into 2014, frankly scares me. Despite my opinion, Ball is showing a current average draft pick towards the end of the first and into the second draft rounds as the No. 1 running back chosen on fantasy rosters.
While Ball wasn’t given a whole lot of opportunity to prove himself in 2013 with the presence of Knowshon Moreno dominating the RB1 role, he didn’t exactly dazzle his audience in his rookie year with three fumbles on 120 attempts. Moreno has since left Denver, so it would appear Ball will take the lead responsibilities for the team in 2014, however to expect RB1 numbers out of him early in the season is extremely ambitious. Draft him with caution past the third round if possible with the optimism that eventually he could reward RB1 fantasy points.
Players' Average Draft Picks (ADP's) come from mock drafting results at eDraft.